英特尔(Intel)与 ARM 目前已经在系统领域正面冲突，谁会胜出？有分析师认为英特尔赢面仍大，但也有分析师不这么认为。
“到目前为止，英特尔一直没赶上超移动(ultramobile)市场的热潮，看来在 2011年也无法取得这方面的动力。”投资顾问机构Piper Jaffray 的分析师Auguste Gus Richard在最近发表的一篇报告中指出：“英特尔的问题是，越来越多软件开发商将焦点集中在 ARM 平台，随着这股力量不断成长，相关应用程序日益增加，英特尔越来越难扭转市场的方向。”
还有另一个问题是：“我们不看好英特尔的32纳米智能手机处理器平台Medfield能在2011上半年问世，或是在2011年、甚至2012年取得显著的市占率。我们知道英特尔正拋弃旧有x86架构的功能，以降低未来产品的功耗，但不清楚那会实现在Medfield上，或是更下一代产品。”
他补充指出：“我们认为英特尔可能已经放弃旧有x86架构、或是在SoC设计上有显著的改良，好提升产品竞争力；但我们也认为，超移动时代列车已经驶离车站，可是英特尔到现在还没有搭上车。”
不过英特尔仍然在某些方面保有领导地位。Jaffray 表示：“我们预期ARM最新A15核心的领先授权客户，会在2011年第一季末左右投片；ARM阵营的32纳米芯片量产时程，则是会在2012年，届时英特尔已经前进至22纳米。英特尔仍在制造技术方面跑在前头，ARM则是在行动处理器架构上领先。
“同时我们也相信，假以时日，英特尔的制程优势仍能推动产品性能上的优势，但这不太可能会在2011年发生。其Moorestown平台的市场渗透率不佳，主因是功耗太高；该平台是双芯片解决方案，包括一颗45纳米的Atom处理器芯片，以及65纳米的I/O芯片。”Jaffray补充，I/O会消耗大部分的功率，而组合式方案在手机市场不太可能取得成功。
新一代的Medfield手机处理器，将会把I/O功能整合进处理器芯片，采用32纳米制程；这可望有效改善功耗问题并提升性能。但Jaffray指出，Medfield预期要到2011年中以后才会问世，而采用该芯片的产品可能会延至2012年才诞生。
英特尔的另一个麻烦，是整体 PC 市场成长速度趋缓：“随着平板装置当红，我们估计PC出货量平均年成长率，会在接下来几年从12%降到5%；但我们也认为PC产品的价格会在连续20年每年下滑8%之后，开始维持稳定。我们预测PC市场与英特尔的营收，接下来都会维持中等个位数的成长，除非该公司的发展脚步能超越整体市场。”
编译：Judith Cheng,台湾《电子工程专辑》
本文授权编译自EE Times，谢绝转载！
查阅原文：《Analyst: Intel missed mobile boat》
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Analyst: Intel missed mobile boat
Mark LaPedus
ARM Holdings plc and Intel Corp. are on a collision course in the systems space.The winner? Intel, according to one analyst. Another analyst disagreed.
"So far, Intel is missing the wave in the ultramobile market and is not likely to gain traction in 2011," said Auguste Gus Richard, an analyst with Piper Jaffray, in a recent report. ''The issue for Intel is that software developers are increasingly focusing on ARM platforms. As this momentum grows and the number of applications grows it makes it more difficult for Intel to turn the market in its direction.''
There are other issues. "We do not expect Intel's 32-nm Medfield platform for smartphones, expected in 1H:11, to gain significant share in 2011 and perhaps 2012. We understand Intel is dropping legacy x86 features in order to lower power consumption in future products, but it is not clear if this is Medfield or the next generation,'' he said. ''We think Intel may have to abandon its legacy x86 architecture or significantly improve its SoC design capability to be competitive. We think the train is leaving the station in the ultramobile era and so far Intel is not on board."
Intel, however, is leading in some respects. ''We expect that the lead customers for ARM's new A15 core to tape-out around the end of Q1:11. We expect the ARM camp to be in production at 32-nm in 2012 as Intel is moving to 22-nm. Intel leads in manufacturing and ARM leads in mobile architecture,'' he said.
"While we believe over time Intel's process advantage could drive a performance advantage, we do not think this is likely to occur in 2011. Moorestown is facing tough market acceptance due to high power consumption. Moorestown is a two chip solution with the Atom processor (45-nm) on one chip and the I/O (65-nm) on the other," he said.
"We understand that the I/O consumes a lot of power and the combination is not likely to be successful in the mobile phone market. The Medfield mobile processor will integrate the I/O with the processor and will be implemented in 32-nm. This will likely significantly improve power consumption and performance. Medfield is
not expected until mid-2011, and we would not expect Medfield based products to enter the market until 2012," he said.
The other problem for Intel? The PC market is slowing. "We expect PC unit growth to decline from 12 percent to 5 percent over the next several years as tablets gain momentum. However, we also expect PC prices to stabilize after 20 years of an 8 percent annual decline. The net is we expect PC and Intel's revenue to grow mid single digits unless the company can move beyond the PC market," he said.
责编：Quentin
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