前言：苹果首席执行官史蒂夫•乔布斯再度病休，这是24个月以来第二次发生这种情况。这迫使苹果员工、投资者和苹果迷思索一个糟糕的情形：失去乔布斯的苹果。2009年那次病休，乔布斯当时宣布只休六个月，但这次并没有给出休假时间。而且乔布斯的详细病情也不得而知，导致外界猜测他是胰腺癌复发，或者两年前移植的肝脏发生排斥反应。即使乔布斯这次的病能够治好，一些分析师也猜测，苹果首席运营官库克将在年内被任命为正式的首席执行官。这次库克再度临危受命，在乔布斯离开公司期间负责日常运营工作。
从大局考虑，乔布斯的健康状况是头等大事。但我们也需考虑它对苹果这家最令人敬佩的电子公司的潜在影响。乔布斯是一位天才和魔术师，他两次把苹果带到了高科技产业的领先位置，不只一次。苹果曾与乔布斯分道扬镳，但在乔布斯离开公司期间，该公司一事无成，那是失去的十年。从各方面来看，库克都是一位称职的领导者，在某些方面，他已经在主持大局。但库克，以及其他几乎所有人，都有一个重大缺陷：他根本不是乔布斯。如果乔布斯的身体状况使其永远不可能再回来担任首席执行官，苹果可能遭受不计其数的损失。我们列出其中最大的五个损失。
苹果需要乔布斯的五大理由
苹果公司的首席执行官乔布斯在1月17日发给员工的备忘录中表示，他已请病假，这是24个月来的第二次。但他仍然担任公司的首席执行官，继续参与战略决策。乔布斯表示希望能够尽快重返工作岗位，但没有给出回归时间表。
乔布斯的详细病情没有披露。乔布斯2004年切除了一个长在胰腺上的癌性肿瘤，并在2009年进行了肝脏移植手术，当时他病休六个月。有些人猜测，乔布斯最近这次病休，可能意味着他的身体排斥移植肝脏，或者是他的癌症复发了。
苹果的首席运营官库克将在乔布斯请假期间负责公司的日常运营。2009年乔布斯休假的时候，库克也曾充当同样的角色。在库克代理乔布斯的职务期间，地球照常旋转，苹果继续收获不错的利润。没有理由认为这次会有所不同。
但是，乔布斯的健康问题以及他能否归来并不确定，迫使苹果员工、投资者和苹果迷面对不可想象的结果：苹果可能失去乔布斯。
“我们认为，显然，乔布斯作为业内的创新者是不可替代的，但他现在有比担任首席执行官更急迫的事情，” Gleacher & Co.的分析师Brian Marshall表示，“经营一家年营业收入达1000亿美元的大公司，同时还得定期请病假，这对于任何人来说都不公平。库克以前代理首席执行官时表现很完美，我们预计他今年将成为苹果公司的正式首席执行官，乔布斯可能充当高级顾问。”
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“如果出于某些原因乔布斯无法归来，最合理的继任者就是库克，”咨询公司Creative Strategies Inc.的总裁Tim Bajarin表示，“你不能随便从其它行业或其它公司找一个人来担任苹果的首席执行官，并希望他们能理解苹果的文化、苹果的思想和苹果的做事方式。他们曾经尝试过。”
库克长期以来就被视为乔布斯的继任者。虽然他已证明自己是有才能的和受尊敬的领导者，但库克和其他所有的人一样，存在一个重大缺陷：他不是乔布斯。
不论公平与否，电子产业中没有任何一个首席执行官，像乔布斯那样事关公司的命运。他两次把苹果带到了高科技产业的领先位置，而不是一次。苹果受人瞩目，部分缘于乔布斯身上的光环。在PC产业的发展初期，乔布斯创建了苹果公司，并在该公司失去方向的时候力挽狂澜。
尽管如此，Bajarin认为苹果由库克执掌，同时公司还有强大的管理团队，苹果不会有什么闪失，尤其是在短期之内。他指出，按照苹果的公司结构，其他高管已经在向库克汇报工作。
“乔布斯过去五年所做的事情，就是打造了一支优秀的管理队伍，这些高管的能力很强，即使乔布斯不在，也能指引苹果前进，”他说。他还指出，苹果开始开发的产品，一般是在三、四年后投入市场，这意味着苹果的2011、2012甚至2013年部分时间的产品，“已经规划好了并带有乔布斯的色彩。”
但乔布斯是独一无二的。万一健康原因使其永远离开苹果，则该公司可能在所有方面受到打击。以下列举五个方面：
［转下一页：乔布斯成功的关键］
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洞察力
苹果没有发明个人电脑、MP3播放器、智能手机和平板电脑。但有乔布斯坐镇，苹果彻底重新定义了所有这些产品，突出了技术、工业设计和用户体验。
这并不是说苹果只有乔布斯这么一个聪明人。“我想说的是，不仅这支(苹果)团队完全理解(乔布斯的)远见，而且现在苹果是一台润滑良好的机器，” Bajarin表示。
难以知道，如果苹果由其他人掌舵，该公司是否还能继续在电子产品领域引领潮流。但众所周知的是，乔布斯对新产品有着极其敏感的感觉。苹果的许多新产品都保持秘而不宣，其中一个原因是无人知道公司会遇到什么情况，直到宣布前的最后一刻，乔布斯选出他相信将取得成功的那些产品。
乔布斯还与好莱坞和硅谷有关系，这使其能够与利用iTunes建立数字音乐事业(苹果是美国市场的主要音乐发行者)，并与电影公司和发行商签署了许多内容协议，增强了苹果iPod、 iPhone和iPad的吸引力。他的主旨演讲经常吸引内容及芯片伙伴公司的高管，这些人几乎像普通消费者一样对乔布斯崇拜得五体投地。
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驱动力
在苹果位于美国加州库珀蒂诺的总部，乔布斯营造了一种紧迫感文化。前苹果员工透露，苹果的工作道德极高，所以，午夜以后仍然可以经常看到仍在工作的员工。乔布斯积极进取和勇往直前的性格，苛刻的个性，是硅谷的谈资。
“无疑，乔布斯是难以置信的驱动者，” Bajarin表示，“但凭心而论，驱动苹果员工的似乎是某种更高的追求——创造伟大的产品。即使没有乔布斯这样的啦啦队队长，苹果员工也知道自己应该干什么。我认为这种情况不会改变。”
据Bajarin，乔布斯成功的关键在于他对设计的独到眼光，以及他是一位伟大的技术人员这个事实。他注意到，微软创使人盖茨几年前曾在《华尔街日报》撰文间接提到这种罕见的组合。“尽管乔布斯指派(负责工业设计的苹果高级副总裁) Jonathan Ive负责这项重要工作，但显然他知道如何才能使产品既好看又易于使用，” Bajarin表示，“这很少见。我不知道科技产业还有哪位首席执行官同时拥有上述两种特质。”
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［转下一页：推介能力强于其他人总和］
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表现力
这些天，有许多科技公司的首席执行官登台向观众介绍酷炫的新产品，以及他们公司向市场推出的创新性。乔布斯只是其中的一位，但他的推介能力比其他人加起来都强。身穿其标志性的黑色高领绒套衫，大步走上舞台，手持苹果的最新发明，乔布斯拥有神奇的能力让它看起来绝对是世界上最酷的产品。他是一位卓越的推销员，用几个精心选择的短语就能创造用户需求。他有独特的办法来煽动苹果迷的热情，他的主旨演讲和产品介绍感觉就像是雅皮士复兴布道会。
Bajarin承认，其他任何人，包括库克在内，在个性和才能方面都难以取代乔布斯。但他表示，上周苹果和Verizon推出用于Verizon网络的iPhone，在这个活动上他遇到了库克。他注意到，库克确实拥有舞台表现力。“我克服了上述想法，认为这个人对苹果的控制力要大于人们的想像，” Bajarin表示。
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追星族俱乐部
苹果被恰当地描述为一个拥有股票代码的教派。苹果迷狂热地想成为苹果追随者。除了抢购苹果推出的每款新产品，苹果一族还在网上网下宣传这些产品，积极参加苹果的各项活动，为乔布斯的每句话欢呼。乔布斯是这个团队无可争议的最高领袖，而且有理由相信苹果迷将会热情接受乔布斯的继任者，尤其是在开始的时候。(假设苹果继续推出改变世界的创新性产品，该公司的下任首席执行官应该能够最终赢得这些苹果迷的支持。)
［转下一页：股票价格下搓］
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股票价格
苹果在马丁路德金纪念日公布乔布斯的病休消息，当天美国股市休市。但苹果股票在一些外国股市据说下挫了5%以上。
美国股市周二开市，苹果股票迅速下滑逾6%，截止到本文发稿，其跌幅缩小至下跌3.3%，相当于下跌11美元以上(本文发出后，其股价进一步反弹)。关键问题：苹果投资者担心乔布斯离开苹果。
华尔街把乔布斯看作是苹果的贵人。苹果股价在2008年12月和2009年1月也曾下跌，当时市场风传乔布斯健康问题，苹果在1月中旬宣布其病休。但到乔布斯在当年6月末恢复工作时，苹果股票已从1月中旬的低点上涨了90%，因为苹果继续前进。(当然，2008年末发生金融危机，各地股市都急剧下滑，2009年才开始反弹，苹果股票的涨落也与此有关。)
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本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载！
参考原文：Five reasons Apple needs Steve Jobs, Dylan McGrath and Rick Merritt
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Five reasons Apple needs Steve Jobs, Dylan McGrath and Rick Merritt
Apple CEO Steve Jobs' latest medical leave—his second in 24 months—forces Apple employees, investors and fans to contemplate a grim scenario: Apple without Steve Jobs. Unlike 2009, when Jobs put a six month timetable on his leave, there is no schedule this time around. There are also no details on Jobs' medical condition, causing pundits to speculate that he may have suffered a relapse of pancreatic cancer or that his body is rejecting the transplanted liver he received two years ago. Even if Jobs successfully overcomes his latest ailment, some analysts are speculating that Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook, who will again be responsible for Apple's day-to-day operations in Jobs' absence, will be named permanent CEO before the year is out.
In the grand scheme of things, Jobs' health is the primary concern. But practically demands that we also contemplate the potential impact on one of electronics most revered companies. Jobs is a genius and magician who has hoisted Apple to the forefront of the high-tech world not once but twice. Apple already parted ways with Jobs once—a lost decade in which the company did little of note. By all accounts, Cook is an able leader who is already in some ways running the show. But Cook—along with nearly everyone else—has one major flaw: He is simply not Steve Jobs. Should Jobs' health prevent him from permanently returning as CEO, the company is likely to suffer in countless ways. We've put together a list of five of the biggest.
Five reasons Apple needs Steve Jobs
Dylan McGrath and Rick Merritt
Apple CEO Steve Jobs is now on medical leave for the second time in 24 months, saying in a memo to Apple employees Monday (Jan. 17) that he would remain CEO and continue to be involved in major strategic decisions for the company. Jobs said he hopes to return as soon as he can, but provided no timetable.
The details of Jobs' medical condition have not been revealed. Jobs had a cancerous tumor removed from his pancreas in 2004 and underwent a liver transplant in 2009, when he also took a medical leave for six months. Some have speculated that Jobs' latest medical leave could mean that his body is rejecting the transplanted liver or that his cancer has returned.
Tim Cook, Apple's chief operating officer, will be responsible for Apple's day to day operations in Jobs' absence. Cook filled the same role when Jobs took leave in 2009—the earth continued to rotate and Apple continued to reap healthy profits. There is no reason to suggest it will be any different this time.
But, callous as it may seem, Jobs' health issues—and the uncertainty of his return—force Apple employees, investors and fans to confront the unthinkable: The possibility of Apple without Steve Jobs.
"Obviously Jobs is irreplaceable as the industry's innovator, but he has more pressing matters today than being CEO of [Apple], in our view," said Brian Marshall, an analyst at Gleacher & Co. "Running a $100 billion annual revenue company while being forced to take periodic medical leaves is not fair to anyone. Cook has performed flawlessly in the past as [Apple's] interim CEO and we expect he will become the full-time CEO of Apple this year with Jobs hopefully serving as a senior advisor."
"If for some reason Steve could not return, the most logical successor would be Tim," said Tim Bajarin, president of consulting firm Creative Strategies Inc. "You can't just bring somebody from another industry or another company into overseeing Apple as CEO and hope they will understand Apple's culture, Apple's mentality and Apple's way of doing things. They already tried that once."
Cook has long been considered Jobs' heir apparent. And while he has proven himself a capable and well-respected leader, Cook—along with nearly everyone else—has one major flaw: He is not Steve Jobs.
Fairly or not, no CEO in electronics is considered to be as critical to his or her company's fortunes as Jobs, who has hoisted Apple to the forefront of the high-tech world not once but twice. Apple commands a premium in part because of the aura around its returned founder who was there at the beginning of the PC industry and reinvigorated the company when it had lost its way.
Still, Bajarin argues that Apple would be in good hands with Cook and the rest of the company's deep management team—particularly in the short term. He noted that under Apple's corporate structure, the rest of the executives already report up through Cook.
"What Jobs has done over the past five years is assemble an amazing team of executives who are very strong and capable of directing Apple even if Steve was not there," he said. He added that Apple begins creating its products three to four years before they are put into the marketplace, meaning that Apple's products for 2011, 2012 and even part of 2013 "will have already been cast and had Steve's input."
Still, Jobs is one of a kind. In the event that Jobs' health issues prevent him from returning permanently, the company is likely to suffer in countless ways. Here are five of them:
The vision
Apple did not invent the personal computer, the MP3 player, the smartphone or the tablet computer. But, with Jobs at the helm, it dramatically redefined all of them with an emphasis on technology, industrial design and user experience.
Not to say that Jobs is the only smart person working at Apple. "I would argue that not only is this [Apple] team more than capable of understanding [Jobs'] vision, but Apple is by now a pretty well oiled machine," Bajarin said.
It's impossible to know whether the company could continue to set the bar in electronic products with someone else calling the shots. But what is well known is that Jobs has an extremely keen new product sense. One reason why Apple keeps many of its product launches under wraps is that no one knows what the company will run with until the last minute before an announcement, when Jobs picks the products he believes will win in the market.
Jobs also has ties to Hollywood and Silicon Valley that have enabled him to build a digital music business with iTunes (Apple is the leading music distributor in the U.S.) as well as secure deals with studios and publishers for content that makes the company's iPods, iPhones and iPads engaging. His keynotes are often attended by senior executives of content and chip partners that seem to venerate him almost as much as the buying public.
The drive
At Apple headquarter in Cupertino, Calif., Jobs drives a driven culture. Former employees report that the work ethic at Apple is so high that it's not unusual to see employees at their desks after midnight. Jobs' aggressive, hard-charging nature and demanding personality are the stuff of Silicon Valley lore.
"There is no question that Steve is an incredible motivator," Bajarin said. "But to be fair, the people at Apple seem to be motivated by somewhat of a higher cause—which is to create great products. Even if Steve wan't there as a cheerleader, these guys know what they are supposed to do. I just don't see that changing."
According to Bajarin, the keys to Jobs' success are his eye for design and the fact that he is a great technologist. He noted that Microsoft Corp. Founder Bill Gates alluded to this rare combination in an article published in the Wall Street Journal years ago. "Even though Jobs has [Apple Senior Vice President of Industrial Design] Jonathan Ive doing the heavy lifting, he clearly has a real idea of what it takes to make something not only look good but easy to use," Bajarin said. "That's very rare. I don't know of any other CEO in the tech world who has that combination."
The showmanship
These days, Jobs isn't the only tech CEO who steps up on stage before a captive audience to describe the cool new products and innovations that his company is bringing to market. But Jobs does it with more flair than the rest of them put together. Striding the stage in his trademark black turtle neck, holding Apple's latest invention, Jobs has the uncanny ability to make it seem like absolutely the coolest thing in the entire world. The consummate salesman, Jobs creates user demand with a few well chosen phrases. And he can whip up the Apple faithful like no one else—his keynotes and product introductions can feel like yuppie revival meetings.
Bajarin acknowledged that it would be impossible for anyone—including Cook—to replace Jobs in term of persona and flair. But he said that he was with Cook last week Apple and Verizon introduced the iPhone for the Verizon network and noted that Cook has a real stage presence. "I walked away from that thinking that this guy is much more in control of Apple than people think," Bajarin said.
The fan club
Apple has aptly been described as a cult with a stock ticker symbol. Apple enthusiasts are fanatical about being Apple enthusiasts. In addition to buying every new Apple gadget that hits the market, Apple Nation evangelizes them online and in the real world, packs Apple events and cheers Jobs' every word. Jobs is this group's unquestioned Supreme Leader, and there is reason to doubt that Apple fans would embrace Jobs' successor quite as warmly—especially at first. (That said, assuming that Apple continues to churn out innovations that change the world, the company's next CEO should be able to win this group over eventually.)
The stock price
Apple released the news of Jobs' leave on Martin Luther King Day, when U.S. stock markets were closed. But Apple's stock reportedly fell more than five percent in some foreign markets.
When U.S. markets opened Tuesday, Apple's stock promptly dropped by more than 6 percent before recovering to trade down 3.3 percent, or more than $11 per share, as of this posting (it has sense recovered further). Bottom line: Apple investors are squeamish about the possibility of a Jobs-less Apple.
Wall Street sees Jobs as Apple's golden guy. Apple's stock also tanked in December 2008 and January 2009 as rumors of Jobs' health concerns circulated and Apple announced his medical leave in mid-January. But by the time Jobs returned to work in late June of that year, Apple's stock had increased in value 90 percent from a mid-January low as Apple continued rolling along. (Of course, this rise and fall occurred following the financial meltdown of late 2008, when markets declined dramatically before beginning to recover as 2009 unfolded).
责编：Quentin
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