欧德宁预言晶圆代工产能过剩，矛头直指Globalfoundries

英特尔(Intel)总裁暨执行长欧德宁(Paul Otellini)表示，全球领导级晶圆代工厂恐怕将在接下来几年因产能过剩而陷入危机。 欧德宁在一场日前(2月17日)于英国举行的分析师会议上指出，晶圆代工市场的过剩产能，主要来自于意图争夺全球市占率的晶圆代工新秀 Globalfoundries 。但在隔天(2月18日)，他也宣布英特尔将在美国亚利桑那州兴建一座晶圆厂，并在2011年为美国本地创造4,000个工作机会。 不过欧德宁对晶圆代工产能过剩的看法，与某些分析师意见并不相同，例如Future Horizons创办人Malcolm Penn就表示，半导体产业应该是进入晶圆产能吃紧的时期，因为无论是IDM业者或是晶圆代工厂，在过去几年都吝于投资制造产能。 欧德宁认为：“晶圆代工厂并不是靠先进制程赚钱，而是靠制造生命周期较长产品的二线制程。”他指出，先进制程产能因 Globalfoundries 的大举扩张而过剩，意味着代工价格将下滑；一旦先进制程代工价格下滑、二线制程也会跟着降，对整体业务造成威胁。 所以他预测在接下来几年，台积电与Globalfoundries等晶圆代工业者会开始遇到麻烦；至于三星(Samsung)则是因为其内存与逻辑业务而有不同的状况。他并强调，芯片业务完全是靠产品开发与制造的效率，英特尔在这方面是首屈一指。 欧德宁表示：“我们的竞争对手必须对台积电与Globalfoundries所提供的服务照单全收；”这也就是说，英特尔偏好能够掌控制造领域的选项。但如果晶圆代工价格确实如他所预测地下跌，无晶圆厂业者如Broadcom与Qualcomm等其实获利会更大，也能取得更多与英特尔竞争的优势。 编译： Judith Cheng 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载！ (参考原文： Intel: Foundry business is in oversuppy trouble, by Peter Clarke)

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{pagination} Intel: Foundry business is in oversuppy trouble Peter Clarke 2/18/2011 4:22 PM EST LONDON – The world's leading foundries are facing difficult times due to the creation of too manufacturing capacity, according to Paul Otellini, president and CEO of Intel Corp., the world's leading chip maker. "I think the foundry business is in big trouble over the next few years," Otellini told analysts at a conference here Thursday (Feb. 17) and accessed by EE Times by a telephone replay. He put it down to "significant overcapacity" mainly due to attempts to grab market share by new player Globalfoundries Inc. (Sunnyvale, Calif.). On Friday in Hillsboro, Oregon, Otellini said Intel would build a wafer fab in Arizona and create 4,000 U.S. jobs in 2011. However, talk of overcapacity does not chime with the view of some analysts, such as Malcolm Penn, founder of Future Horizons (Sevenoaks, England). Penn has heralded the coming of a fab-tight era, due to a lack of spending on manufacturing capacity by both IDMs and foundries over the last couple of years. Some have said that the chip world is rapidly collapsing to a handful of leading-edge chip makers most of whom will have some foundry interest. Intel and Samsung still make the majority of chips for sale under their own brand while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (Hsinchu, Taiwan) and Globalfoundries are pure-play foundries. Nonetheless Otellini does not seem eager to be joining the foundry crowd any time soon. "Foundries make money not on the leading edge but on the trailing edge, with long running products," he said. "Leading-edge capacity excess, driven by Globalfoundries' expansion primarily, means pricing is going to come down. As leading-edge pricing comes down, so does the trailing-edge [pricing], hollowing out the business. That means real trouble for Globalfoundries and TSMC over the next few years," Otellini predicted. He conceded that with its memory and logic operations Samsung was a different case. Otellini said chip building was all about the efficiency of the development and manufacturing operations and that Intel's was second to none. "Our competitors have to take what TSMC and Globalfoundries offer them," indicating that Intel liked having control of its manufacturing choices. But Otellini also glided over the collorary of his prediction of price erosion at the foundries; that fabless chip companies will be getting good deals on both leading- and trailing-edge silicon making those companies, the likes of Qualcomm and Broadcom, better able to compete with Intel. Nonetheless, Otellini's conclusion was that Intel and Samsung would increasingly pull away from the manufacturing pack, particularly Globalfoundries and TSMC.