MCU供应链“压力山大”，供给中断及短缺将频现

微控制器(MCU)供应链中的厂商们正在承受着巨大压力，预计该领域将出现更多的供给中断及短缺状况。 在欢度丰收的2010年后，爱特梅尔(Atmel)、飞思卡尔(Freescale)、Microchip、瑞萨(Renesas)和其它的微控制器供货商，在2011年第一季的业务都回归到正常的季节循环。 然而，这一切在三月日本大地震后都改变了。数家芯片制造商受到波及，其中包括全球最大的MCU供货商瑞萨电子。此外，富士通(Fujitsu)和其它工厂位于当地的微控制器供货商也受到了影响。 日本的汽车和消费电子巨头也受到冲击。事实上，丰田(Toyota)和其它业者也受到微控制器和其它组件短缺影响，造成工厂停产，并延长部份车型的交货周期。 在MCU领域，瑞萨基本上已经从地震中恢复，除了位于日本那珂(Naka)的晶圆厂，该厂占瑞萨20%的MCU产能。截至目前，那珂厂尚未恢复生产。 鉴于瑞萨的现况，再加上通路不断消耗库存，很可能造成第二季MCU的轻微短缺。“我并不预期在未来数个月内平均销售价格(ASP)会上升，”Microchip Technology总裁兼CEO Steve Sanghi日前在嵌入式系统大会(ESC)中表示，但就MCU的供给而言“第三季情况可能更糟”。 事实上，Microchip和其它业者显然正在接收一些原先瑞萨的OEM客户。“Microchip可能看到更多由于供应链中断而出现的业务机会，而且可能从客户的更换组件和重新设计中获益，”Gleacher & Co.分析师Doug Freedman在一份报告中指出。 我们认为，瑞萨的断货可能会让Microchip在拓展全球MCU市场版图时获得新的机遇，Freedman说。“我们相信影响将持续到未来的两到三季。” 不过，要从一家MCU供货商换到另一家，说要比做容易得多。“我确实听到(MCU)的短缺消息，的确，其中一些消息来自瑞萨，”Objective-Analysis分析师Tom Starnes说。“不幸的是，要为来自不同设备和厂房的产品重新认证，需要供货商和OEM业者花更多时间来进行。这类工作通常需要仔细安排，以免破坏生产流程。” Gartner 表示，2009年，MCU市场如垂直落体般下跌。2010年，市场反弹，达到了151亿美元规模。而Databeans Inc,则预估， MCU 市场规模可望在2011年突破 160亿美元，比2010年成长9%。 ［转下一页：瑞萨的策略］ 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载

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• 5年内中国MCU市场将增长三分之二2kxesmc

{pagination} 瑞萨的策略 据 Gartner统计，在2010年的排名中，瑞萨是微控制器领导者，销售额44亿4,700万美元；其次依序是飞思卡尔(15亿2,500万美元)、三星(9.82亿美元)、Microchip(9.68亿美元)、爱特梅尔(9.58亿美元)、德州仪器(TI, 9.46亿美元)’英飞凌(Infineon, 9.3亿美元)，意法半导体(ST, 9.15亿美元)和富士通(6.84亿美元)。 这并不奇怪，瑞萨正全速摆脱地震的影响。在MCU领域“我们奋起直追，”Renesas US总裁兼CEO Daniel Mahoney稍早前在ESC上表示。在2011下半年“我们可望缩小差距”。 地震后，瑞萨在日本的10座工厂中，有五座暂时关闭。但最近“五分之四已恢复生产”，Mahoney说。 问题是，这并不包含瑞萨的那珂晶圆厂。该厂有两条生产线，分别为200mm和300mm生产线。总计那珂厂占瑞萨品牌MCU 20%的产能。瑞萨并未详细说明哪条生产线路受到影响，但该公司表示地震并未对 NEC 品牌的MCU组件供货造成影响。 为迎头赶上，瑞萨宣布了全新策略。首先，该公司正在重新激活那珂厂。其200mm生产线称为N2，将在6月15日重启，而称为N3的300mm生产线将在7月重新激活，他表示。 其次，瑞萨也将部份生产转移到其它厂。第三，该公司也将部分生产转移到代工厂。该公司已经“将一些那珂的生产转移到台积电(TSMC)”，他说。该公司还将某些产品转移到新加坡Globalfoundries的200mm晶圆厂，该厂原为特许半导体(Chartered)所有，后被 Globalfoundries收购。 不过，供应链仍有可能中断。地震前，供应链约有两个月的库存，但现已接近枯竭，Microchip的Sanghi说。 库存问题再加上瑞萨的困境，预计将造成部份短缺。许多OEM正在寻求更换到Microchip的组件。据报导，Microchip已规划出一个替代方案，并正扩大其位于奥勒冈州Gresham的晶圆厂产能。 本周，Microchip公布了亮眼的成绩，该公司还买下了一座IC组装厂。 ［转下一页：爱特梅尔成绩亮眼］ 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载

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• 5年内中国MCU市场将增长三分之二2kxesmc

{pagination} 爱特梅尔成绩亮眼 Atmel──另一家 MCU供货商，则看到了旺盛的需求。事实上，该公司看到了其maXTouch触摸控制器业务的强劲增长态势。 “我们认为，Atmel已看到其AVR架构多年来的市占率成长情况，类似Microchip的PIC架构在1990年代的成长，”Raymond James & Associates Inc.分析师Hans Mosesmann说。 “爱特梅尔的maXTouch技术现已被用在前10名智能手机中的8款之中，我们认为这些‘胜利’将再延续，特别是由于竞争者无法很快赶上整体AVR架构的性能，”他说。 “随着持续在智能手机和平板应用中获得更多采用，预计触控MCU在2011年的销售额将超过3亿美元，”他说。“Atmel占据了大部份的非苹果智能手机平台市场，包括宏达电(HTC, Thunderbolt, 7 Pro, Evo, EvoShift 4G, Incredible)、Kyocera Echo、Motorola Atrix，以及Samsung Galaxy 4G。 爱特梅尔本周公布截至到2011年3月31日的第一季财报，营收4.614亿美元，比上一季的4.578亿美元微幅成长1%；同时也较2010年第一季的3.485亿美元大幅成长32%。在GAAP基础上计算2011年第一季净利为7,460万美元，或稀释后每股0.16美元。 “在季节性疲软中，我们的第一季业绩亮眼，这主要来自于我们不断获得成功的微控制器业务，”Atmel总裁兼CEO Steve Laub在一份声明中表示。 在稍早前的一次电话会议中，Laub表示 Atmel 的晶圆厂均已满载。该公司正以自己的厂房加上中芯(SMIC)和联电(UMC)两家代工伙伴制造微控制器。为了扩大产能，爱特梅尔还与MagnaChip公司签署代工协议。 截至六月，其季成长预期为1~4%。Atmel最大的挑战是必须跟上需求，并破除一些迷思。“该公司的任务是尝试破除流行的街头文化，即非苹果的平板设备不买，因为这可能导致整个市场出现庞大库存。事实上，Atmel看到其用于平板之maXTouch的订单稳定成长。智能手机平台将在2011年再推动 Atmel的触摸业务，目前其触摸产品约有80%用于智能手机(20%用于平板)，”Mosesmann说。 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文： Microcontroller supply chain is out of control，by Mark LaPedus Microcontroller supply chain is out of control

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• 5年内中国MCU市场将增长三分之二2kxesmc

{pagination} Mark LaPedus 5/6/2011 8:30 PM EDT SAN JOSE, Calif. – Already under severe pressure in the supply chain, suppliers of microcontroller (MCU) products are expected to see more disruptions-and shortages-on the horizon. Coming off a banner year in 2010, Atmel, Freescale, Microchip, Renesas and other MCU suppliers saw their respective businesses return to normal seasonal patterns in the first quarter of 2011. But that all changed in March, when the great earthquake hit Japan. Several chip makers were impacted, including Renesas Electronics Corp., the world’s largest MCU supplier. Fujitsu Ltd. and other MCU suppliers with fabs in the region were also impacted. Japan’s automotive and consumer electronics giants were also affected. In fact, Toyota and others have been hit hard by shortages of MCUs and other components, causing plant shutdowns and extended lead times for some car models. In MCUs, Renesas has largely recovered from the quake except for its Naka fab in Japan, which represents 20 percent of the company’s MCU capacity. To date, the Naka fab has not resumed production. Renesas’ situation, coupled with depleting inventories in the channels, could cause relatively minor shortages of MCUs in the second quarter. ''I don’t expect ASPs to be up’’ in the coming months, said Steve Sanghi, Microchip Technology Inc.'s president and CEO, at the Embedded Systems Conference, but ''the September quarter could be worse’’ in terms of obtaining MCU supply. Indeed, Microchip and others are apparently picking up some MCU business from various OEMs-at the expense of Renesas and its misfortunes. ''Microchip, as suspected, is beginning to see increased business as a result of supply disruptions as management will likely benefit from substitutions and re-designs,’’ said analyst Doug Freedman of Gleacher & Co., in a report. ''Our view remains that visible Renesas disruptions will likely result in new opportunities and/or deepening relationships as Microchip benefits from becoming a larger supply source for MCUs globally,’’ Freedman said. ''We believe the impact will ripple through over the course of the next two to three quarters.’’ Simply replacing MCU parts from one supplier to another is easier said than done. ''I have heard of (MCU) shortages, indeed some from Renesas,’’ said Tom Starnes, an analyst with Objective-Analysis. ‘’Unfortunately re-qualifying products through different equipment and facilities takes time and effort by both vendor and OEM. Such things are normally scheduled carefully so as to not disrupt product flow.’’ The microcontroller market dropped like a rock in 2009. In 2010, the market rebounded and hit $15.1 billion, according to Gartner Inc. The microcontroller market will likely exceed a value of $16 billion for 2011, up 9 percent over 2010, according to Databeans Inc. Renesas strategy In the rankings for 2010, Renesas was the MCU leader with $4.447 billion in sales, followed by Freescale ($1.525 billion), Samsung ($982 million), Microchip ($968 million), Atmel ($958 million), TI ($946 million), Infineon ($930 million), ST ($915 million) and Fujitsu ($684 million), according to Gartner. Not surprisingly, Renesas is moving full speed to recover from the quake. In MCUs, ''we’re still catching up,’’ said Daniel Mahoney, president and CEO of Renesas' U.S. subsidiary, Renesas Electronics America Inc., at ESC. ''We think we will close the gap’’ in the second half of 2011. Following the quake, five out of Renesas’ 10 fabs in Japan were temporarily shut down. ''Four of five have resumed production’’ in more recent times, Mahoney said. The problem is that Renesas’ Naka fab is still out. The plant consists of two lines, including separate 200- and 300-mm lines. In total, Naka represents 20 percent of the Renesas-branded MCU capacity. Renesas did not elaborate which lines were impacted, but it did say that the quake did not disrupt the supply of NEC-branded MCU devices. Seeking to play catch-up, Renesas outlined its strategy. First, the company is moving to re-open the Naka fab. The 200-mm line, dubbed N2, will restart on June 15; the 300-mm line, dubbed N3, will restart in July, he said. Second, Renesas has shifted some production to other fabs. Third, it has moved some production to the foundries. The company has transferred some of the ''Naka production to TSMC,’’ he said. The company is also moving some MCU production to a 200-mm fab in Singapore, now owned by Globalfoundries Inc. That fab was once owned by Chartered, which was acquired by Globalfoundries. Still, there could be disruptions in the supply chain. There were ''two months of inventory’’ in the supply chain before the quake, but that stock is nearly depleted, said Microchip’s Sanghi. The inventory issue, coupled with Renesas’ woes, is expected to cause some shortages. Many OEMs are seeking replacement parts from Microchip. As reported, Microchip has outlined a replacement program and is expanding production within its fab in Gresham, Ore. This week, Microchip posted stellar results and bought an IC-assembly house to expand its backend requirements. Atmel shines Another MCU supplier, Atmel Corp., is seeing booming demand for this and other reasons. In fact, it is seeing sizzling growth in its touch controller business, dubbed maXTouch. ''In our view, Atmel is seeing a multi-year market share gaining dynamic (AVR architecture) similar to what Microchip saw in the 1990s (PIC architecture) – one that could end up taking the better part of a decade to play itself out,’’ said Hans Mosesmann, an analyst with Raymond James & Associates Inc.. ''Atmel’s maXTouch technology is now in 8 of the top 10 smartphones and we continue to believe these ‘wins’ are sticky in nature, in particular due to the overall performance of the AVR architecture that the competition is likely not able to meet any time soon,’’ he said. ''Management now expects touch microcontrollers to exceed $300 million in sales for 2011 as the design-win pipeline continues to fill in both smartphone and tablet applications,’’ he said. ''Atmel is in the majority of the non-Apple smartphone platforms today including HTC (Thunderbolt, 7 Pro, Evo, EvoShift 4G, Incredible), Kyocera Echo, Motorola Atrix, and Samsung Galaxy 4G.’’ This week, Atmel announced financial results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2011. Revenues for the first quarter of 2011 were $461.4 million, a 1 percent increase compared to $457.8 million for the fourth quarter of 2010, and a 32 percent increase compared to $348.5 million for the first quarter of 2010. Net income, on a GAAP basis, totaled $74.6 million, or $0.16 per diluted share for the first quarter of 2011. Included in first quarter 2011 results were restructuring charges of $21.2 million or $0.05 per diluted share, related to personnel reductions at Rousset, France following the sale of a wafer fabrication and smart card businesses. The first quarter 2011 net income compares to net income of $223.1 million or $0.47 per diluted share for the fourth quarter of 2010, which included $118.1 million, or $0.25 per diluted share, primarily from releasing reserves for certain deferred tax assets. Net income, on a GAAP basis, was $16.6 million or $0.04 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2010. "Our outstanding first quarter results, in a seasonally softer quarter, were driven by the continued success of our microcontroller business," said Steve Laub, Atmel's president and CEO, in a statement. During a conference call, Laub said Atmel’s fabs are running at ''full capacity.’’ The company is making MCUs within its own fabs as well as at two foundry partners, SMIC and UMC. To expand its capacity, Atmel has also signed a foundry deal with MagnaChip. June quarter guidance is for sequential sales growth of 1-4 percent. The big challenge for Atmel is to keep up with demand and dispel a myth. ''Management attempted to dispel the popular Street notion that non-Apple tablets are not selling and that huge inventories are building. Actually, Atmel is seeing orderly growth in maXTouch orders for tablets. Smartphone platforms are set to drive Atmel’s Touch business in 2011, with 80 percent of the mix to go to smartphones (20 percent to tablets) given that Atmel is in the majority of smartphones in the market today,’’ Mosesmann said.