中移动TD 3G砍单9成，会压垮白牌手机制造业吗？

针对最近有多家中国白牌(white-box)——或称无品牌(unbranded)──手机制造商发出营利预警，对此野村证券市场研究部门(Nomura Equity Research)指出，中国手机OEM厂正面临结构性的问题；而让该产业6月份营收突然大幅衰退，是中国移动(China Mobile)将一笔原本数量为1,200万支的 TD-SCDMA 3G手机订单，砍了九成。 中国最大的手机制造商之一晨讯科技(SIM Technology Group)，日前发布营利警讯，表示该公司上半年可能会面临亏损；晨讯将之归咎于近几周以来市场需求衰退，以及上述中国移动TD-SCDMA 手机标案的变卦。野村证券分析师表示，晨讯自5月以来，2G手机业务营收已经衰退了超过五成，又遭遇多起TD-SCDMA标案取消的变故。 野村证券分析师Leping Huang也指出，另一家中国手机设计大厂龙旗(Longcheer)最近大幅度裁员，该公司截止于2011年3月31日的第三财报结果还显示8年来首度遭遇亏损；在财报发表当时，龙旗执行长Deng Hua表示，该公司的主力功能型手机产品，持续因为产能过剩与上下游厂商的恶性竞争而遭遇严峻挑战。但他也强调，龙旗会更严格控制成本与支出，以维持市场竞争力。 野村证券分析师将中国白牌手机市场的衰退，归因于中国3G通讯渗透率快于预期，以及诺基亚(Nokia)与中国白牌手机厂商之间的专利侵权诉讼，还有中国官方积极扫荡深圳的山寨手机制造商。此外，东南亚区域市场的宏观经济景气也有明显衰退的迹象。再加上，中国移动的TD-SCDMA手机招标案，由原本的1,200万支缩减为120万支，这对已经准备拿大单的众家手机厂商来说，无疑是一大打击。 编译：Judith Cheng 本文授权编译自EETimes，版权所有，谢绝转载！ 参考原文： China white-box handset market in decline，by Peter Clarke {pagination}

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China white-box handset market in decline Peter Clarke LONDON – After a couple of recent profit warnings from white-box – or unbranded – handset manufacturers Nomura Equity Research has concluded that China's handset OEMs are facing structural problems. It puts this down to a sudden slowdown in the white-box market in June and the cancellation of 90 percent of an order for 12 million TD-SCDMA 3G handsets by China Mobile. SIM Technology Group Ltd., one of the largest handset manufacturers in China, issued a profit warning on June 17, saying it expected to make a loss in the first half of 2011. SIM attributed the potential loss to "the significant reduction in demand during the past few weeks in the open market and the push out of TD-SCDMA handset tender." Nomura analysts stated that SIM had seen a more than 50 percent decline in 2G handset revenues since May and that several TD-SCDMA projects had been cancelled. Longcheer, another major handset design house in China, may have implemented significant employee layoffs recently, according to Nomura analyst Leping Huang. The company announced its first quarterly loss in eight years in the third fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2011. When the financial results were announced Deng Hua, CEO, commented: "The market for our mainstay feature phones products continue to remain challenging due to the excess capacity and adverse competition both upstream and downstream." He added that Longcheer would exercise more stringent control over costs and expenses to remain competitive. Nomura analysts ascribed the slowdown to faster than expected uptake of 3G in China, Patent infringement lawsuits conducted against white-box manufacturers in China by Nokia and a crack down on white-box manufacturers in Shenzhen by the Chinese government. Nomura said there is also growing evidence of a macro-economic slowdown in south-east Asia. At the same time China Mobile has reduced its requirement for TD-SCDMA handsets from 12 million handsets to 1.2 million, which is set to challenge handset design houses and OEMs that had been gearing up to meet orders, Nomura said.