全球经济正缓慢步入动荡和进一步的不确定之中，有太多值得关注的事件不断上演，导致难以做出合理的预测。欧洲人对于紧缩政策感到愤怒；中国正在尽全力对抗通膨问题；而日本也有它自己的困扰──同时受地震和长期成长不良的影响；美国尚无能力从其金融和房地产市场问题中解脱；而其它发展中经济体的成长也呈现出不确定性及不均衡的情况。
全球经济前景看来正笼罩着一片阴霾，甚至是在南北美洲、欧洲或亚洲等关键经济地位的专家都不知道未来几年的情势将如何演变。如果你仍然执意这样的观点──电子组件和设备的需求与供给不至于因产业以外的因素而受挫──因而还不密切关注经济新闻，那么请你听听其它的看法。
事实是，全球经济情势很少真正平静。德国看来还没有大问题，但它必须帮助希腊、爱尔兰和西班牙摆脱困境。而在中东，目前仍有几场战争正在酝酿中，而内乱则不断对当地带来重大影响，并破坏和阻碍当地的贸易及商业活动。
全球经济不振已经为股市和商品价格带来显着影响。原油价格不断下跌，显示投资者认为未来需求减弱。上周，在国际能源总署(IEA)和美国政府决定释出紧急储油后，一份报告指出石油价格已下跌至“每桶90美元以下，跌幅超过 5%”。国际能源总署表示十分担心“美国和欧洲的经济疲软情况”。
在此期间，即使是美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)也担心全球经济仍处在未完全恢复的模式中。一份iMarketNews.com发布的报告指出，美国联准会主席Ben Bernanke在FOMC公布审议决议及决定0~0.25%联邦资金利率后的一场电话会议上进行了评论，并据此宣告目前正处于“为经济所困”(confounded by the economy)的现况。
由FOMC在四月的会议中所得到信息显示，尽管全球经济复苏较FOMC所预期的步伐较慢些，但它仍持续缓步进展中。同时，最近的劳动力市场指针也低于预期。
该委员会持续预估各种可能的经济状况──包括资源利用率低、中期通货膨胀前景疲弱等等，这些都可能让联邦基金更长时间持续在的低效率的情况。
美国联准会也调降对于美国经济的成长预期，从今年年初预期的3.4到3.9%成长率，调降至2.7和2.9%之间。难怪奥巴马总统打算将美国在阿富汗战争中的各种资源调回美国本土来建设家园。
这些对电子产业有什幺意义？首先，它会让一些业界高层们相信，他们握住现金而非雇用新人、增加研发投资和产品开发的做法是正确的。但仅仅是因为未来的不确定性而选择将现金握在手中，在这个快速变迁的产业中并不是一个能带领企业走向成功的策略。经济终究会复苏，只有那些具有规划未来的远见，且能仔细管理资源和市场风险的企业会成为赢家。
其次，经济的冷却期也可作为孕育未来成长的准备。已经有一些领域对高科技及新技术发出了需求，特别是在能源、互联网、医疗和资源管理等方面。这对电子业而言是非常好的机会，因为大家总是在寻找下一个‘杀手级’应用。
现在，所有能满足上述需要新技术领域的关键部件都已经就绪，但还需要有人能良好地整合它们，针对这些部份，你并不需要经济学家的预测保障。无论如何，对所有人来说，这些预测数字还相当遥远。
编译： Susan Hong; Joy Teng
本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载
参考英文原文：Will High-Tech Lead as Economy Cools?，by Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief
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Will High-Tech Lead as Economy Cools?
Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief
The outlook is cloudy for the global economy, and not even the most celebrated wizards in key economic positions in North and South America, Europe, or Asia know how things will play out over the next year. If you are not paying close attention to economic news because you are one of those who still subscribe to the idea that demand for -- and supply of -- electronics components and equipment won't be hit by factors extraneous to the industry, please get a second opinion.
The global economy is sinking slowly into turmoil and further uncertainties, with too many flash points, which precludes reasonably acceptable forecasts. Europeans are seething with rage over austerity measures; China is fighting a losing battle against inflationary pressures; Japan is troubled, both by the impacts of the recent earthquake and decades of subpar growth; the United States hasn't been able to put its financial and real estate mess behind it; and growth is highly uncertain and uneven in developing economies.
The bottom line is that there are very few calm economic spots worldwide. Germany, which might qualify, is unhappy it has to help bail out Greece, Ireland, and Spain and is looking to impose stringent conditions on the use of its funds. In the Middle East, several wars are brewing and civil unrest is reshaping the contours of the region, disrupting trade flow and hindering business activities.
The effects of the global malaise are already evident on the equity markets and commodity prices. Crude oil prices have been declining, a sign that traders see weaker demand ahead. Oil prices fell "below $90 a barrel, or more than 5 percent," according to a report on Thursday following a decision by the International Energy Agency and the US government to dump emergency crude reserves on the market. The IEA said it was concerned about "sagging economies in the US and Europe."
In the meantime, even the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is worried the global economy is not in full recovery mode. A report on iMarketNews.com noted that Fed chairman Ben Bernanke sounded "confounded by the economy" based on comments he made at a conference call after the FOMC released the summary of its deliberations and its decision to leave interest rates on federal funds at 0 to 0.25 percent. Here is how the FOMC tried to justify that decision:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected. Also, recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated.
The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions -- including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run -- are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.
The Federal Reserve also pared back its growth forecast for the US, dropping this for the second time this year to between 2.7 and 2.9 percent; The prior forecast at the beginning of the year was for growth of 3.4 to 3.9 percent. Little wonder President Obama wants to redirect national resources from war in Afghanistan to nation-building at home.
What does these mean for the electronics industry? First, it will make some industry executives believe they were right in piling up cash and sitting on it rather than spending on new hires, increased R&D, and product development. But merely holding cash because the future is unpredictable is not a winning strategy in a fast-changing industry. The economy will bounce back, and the rough edges will get smoothed away eventually, but only those enterprises that planned ahead, carefully managing resources and the risks in the market, will emerge as winners.
Second, a cooling period can serve as the incubator for future growth. There are economic segments crying for high-tech to lead and champion the adoption and use of new technologies, especially in energy, connectivity, medical, and resource management. This is a great opportunity for an industry that is always searching for the next "killer" application.
The parts are already in place, but someone has to put them all together, and for this you don't need a guaranteed forecast from economists. Anyway, those numbers aren't coming anytime soon, from anyone.
责编：Quentin
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