给微软一个买诺基亚的理由

无线手机和平板电脑市场正在发生翻天覆地的变化。软硬件厂商之间的界限渐趋模糊，我们无法将现行台面上的主流企业强加区分为所谓的‘软件’或‘硬件’公司，因为这些企业所涉及的业务范围，已经在愈来愈多领域重叠了。 最近Google决定砸下125亿美元买下Motorola Mobility的举措，是高科技产业的一个自然演进过程──这个产业正在演绎出一种更加引人瞩目的崭新业务型态。 但业界的下一个重大事件或许很快就会来临。透过收购摩托罗拉移动，Google已经从字面上证明，过去曾经雄踞一方的元老级企业，已经没有存在的必要了。确实，对这个产业来说，绝对有正当理由去打破从20世纪以来，OEM们早已习惯并延伸至今的垂直制造产业结构。然而，不能仅因为我们不认为一家OEM需要拥有半导体部门，就认为软件供货商和硬件制造商之间必须划分出明显的分界线。 这就是为何我相信微软(Microsoft)会是下一个做出收购硬件厂商决策的企业。这家公司握有足够的资金来支持任何交易──当然，苹果(Apple)或Google除外。若微软真的希望将触角延伸到个人计算机操作系统以外的领域，并再次进击消费电子产业，那么微软就应该认真考虑其操作系统合作伙伴诺基亚(Nokia)。 这两家公司彼此需要，他们能在无线手机和平板电脑市场结合成一个具有更强大竞争力的事业体。微软已经表示，将透过Windows操作系统的共同开发计划，与诺基亚‘更加密切’地合作，而且将对其合作伙伴施予数十亿美元的支持。从另一个角度来看，微软的行动产品用Windows操作系统至今仍落后于苹果和Google。因此，若微软真的收购诺基亚，双方的关系将更加紧密，而且可各自从对方的软硬件专有知识中受益。 对诺基亚来说，这项交易无疑是相当明智的。诺基亚CEO Stephen Elop决定放弃Symbian操作系统的决定固然对这家公司造成了伤害，但这个决策已经无法逆转了。这家芬兰公司现在应该寻求与微软更密切的接触，而非试图解开彼此的纠结关系。而没有什么比收购更能拉近彼此间的距离了，这将使诺基亚成为微软的一个业务部门。 投资者会支持这项举动吗？一开始，他们可能不会喜欢这项决定，但很明显，微软的业务成长不再那么快速，而诺基亚看来也筋疲力尽。但两者若能结合，他们在快速成长的无线行动市场仍将成为一个强大的组合，将能更好的抵御来自苹果、Google-Motorola Mobility和三星的威胁。 当然，一些Windows操作系统的授权厂商可能会发现这项交易并不那么实惠，但这些厂商中，有很多早已被微软稍早前宣称将协助诺基亚转移到其平台的消息给激怒。而且，无论如何，至今仍没有足够的重量级公司可支持Windows操作系统。少数微软阵营中的业者，事实上也同时提供采用其它竞争平台的产品，如Google Android，或是由内部自行开发的平台。 顺道一提，微软收购诺基亚的想法并非遥不可及。无论是之前Google收购Motorola Mobility或是现在谈论的微软收购诺基亚，在业界都不是什么秘密。这个产业不断上演着并购戏码，早期惠普(HP)收购Palm以取得其操作系统并将之应用在自己的产品中。RIM是还没到拍卖的地步，不过，若其它口袋够深的公司希望入主这家加拿大的企业行动供货商，我也不会感到惊讶。目前诺基亚和RIM的市值分别为240亿和140亿美元。 编译： Joy Teng 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文：Viewpoint: Why Microsoft should buy Nokia，by Bolaji Ojo

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{pagination} Viewpoint: Why Microsoft should buy Nokia Bolaji Ojo Monumental changes are taking place in the wireless handset and tablet PC market. Companies are crossing operating lines as it becomes more obvious that the dividing lines between software and hardware businesses were artificially created and are no longer justifiable or viable. The recent decision of Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) to purchase Motorola Mobility Inc. (NYSE: MMI) for $12.5 billion is the latest step in the evolution of the high-tech industry towards the creation of more compelling business narratives. (See: Google Draws New Battle Line With Bid to Buy Motorola.) The next shoes will soon be dropping. By offering to acquire Motorola Mobility, Google literally demonstrated that the old walls companies have built around industry segments do not need to exist. Admittedly, there was justification for the industry to rip up the old vertical manufacturing system OEM used up until the last decade of the 20th Century. However, simply because we do not believe an OEM needs to have a semiconductor division does not mean we can also justify the dividing lines between software vendors and hardware manufacturers. This is why I believe Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) is next in line to make a major acquisition in the hardware space. The company has enough cash to fund any deal it wants (aside from buying Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) or Google, of course), and if it wants to expand beyond the PC operating system market and make a big splash again in the consumer electronics sector, it should consider making a play for OS partner Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK). (See: Nok-Win a No-Win Combination.) The two companies need each other, and together they can become a tougher competitor in the wireless handset and tablet PC market. Microsoft already signaled its intention to move closer to Nokia by agreeing to a joint-development plan for Windows OS that would net its partner billions in support dollars. Also, Microsoft's Windows OS for mobile platforms hasn't done very well in the market so far and has badly trailed offerings from Apple and Google. If Microsoft swallows up Nokia, the relationship becomes more entwined, and both could benefit from the interplay of hardware and software. Such a transaction would be a no-brainer for Nokia. CEO Stephen Elop's decision to abandon Nokia's Symbian operating system admittedly hurt the company, but that decision is now irreversible. Rather than try to untangle the relationship with Microsoft, the Finnish company should instead seek an even tighter engagement. Nothing can be closer than an acquisition that makes Nokia a business division within Microsoft. Will investors support the arrangement? They may not like it at first, but it's clear already Microsoft is no longer in a fast-growing business, while Nokia appears to have run out of steam. Together, they would be a formidable presence in the fast-growing wireless mobility market and would be better able to compete against Apple, Google-Motorola Mobility, and Samsung. Sure, some Windows OS licensees may find the deal unpalatable, but many of these were already irritated at Microsoft's earlier announcement that it would help Nokia migrate to its platform. And, there aren't enough heavyweight companies supporting Windows OS, anyway. The few that are already in Microsoft's camp also have offerings that feature competing operating systems such as Google Android or internally-developed platforms. By the way, the idea of Microsoft buying Nokia isn't really that far-fetched. It isn't a great mystery, either, that Google would offer to buy Motorola Mobility. Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) acquired Palm Inc., absorbing its operating system and using this in its products. Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM) (Nasdaq: RIMM; Toronto: RIM) is not on the block today, either. But I wouldn't be surprised if some other company with a deep-enough pocket makes a play for the Canadian enterprise mobility company. At their current market capitalization of $24 billion and $14 billion, respectively, Nokia and RIM are certainly affordable, having been trading at a discount for some time.