中国正在成为全球太阳能产业中心

今年7月，我与一位老朋友、资深企业家 Valdis Dunis 在香港的一个时髦高档酒店喝咖啡时，他说：“太阳能光电板生意全都跑到中国去了。”因为当时我正要前往台北采访关于在ARM核心上执行 Windows 8 以及无晶圆厂IP供货商的题材，所以一直把他的看法放在脑海中的某个角落，没怎么在意。 但在不久前，美国硅谷洁净科技招牌大厂 Solyndra 宣告破产，Valdis的话猛然浮上我心头。就像往常一样，Valdis总是能洞察先机；他创办了Solar Cities Asia 这家公司，期望能在这个阳光普照的区域市场，成为建筑屋顶太阳能设备的领导厂商。 Valdis大多数的时间都是在处理复杂的财务问题，他吹嘘说已经找到了一种方法，让在商业大楼上安装屋顶太阳能设备的费用非常吸引人；基本上就是以省下的电费能抵销硬件安装成本的创意方式。 于是我对于屋顶太阳能设备这门生意的印象，都是关于如何计算那些费用数字，包括可取得的政府补助金等；但实际上Valdis骨子里还是个工程师，所以他还是对相关技术的发展保持敏锐的观察。 在过去的一年来，Valdis看着来自中国的主流晶硅面板产量大增，价格则下滑；他对台积电(TSMC)的铜铟镓硒(CIGS)薄膜太阳能电池计画颇感好奇，怂恿我去研究一下这个题材，并质疑他们是否能搞定其背后复杂的技术。 当时我没联想到，远在美国加州的Solyndra 厂房就是采用类似的技术，而且也处于类似的风险中；没过多久，市场现实已经与Valdis的结论相符。 简而言之，中国官方已经砸下数十亿美元扶植当地快速发展主流晶硅技术，基本上就是用钱买太阳能市占率；他们师法的是上个世代韩商Samsung与LG在DRAM与LCD领域所采取的策略。 这些日子以来，美国与日本的大型内存与显示器供货商正进行整合，以与韩国大厂竞争；而很类似地，美国太阳能市场看来正面临动荡，同时中国太阳能霸业正要崛起，就如同Valdis几个月前所预见的。 包括CIGS薄膜等其它太阳能技术仍颇具发展潜力，目前太阳能电池效率低得可怜，新技术可望带来性能上的突破，也许某天再度大幅超越中国；但问题是，那样的技术尚不存在。 专家们说，Solyndra所带来的教训是，太阳光电替代能源技术虽然值得私人或官方资金投入实验室阶段研发，以期在下一个世代有所突破，但晶硅对主流制造产业来说还是一场豪赌。其价格成本的甜蜜点(sweet spot)，以及厂商之间的竞争，在此刻似乎都没有结论。 美国投资人总是喜欢赌一个可能会成为未来大事件的、大跃进型的技术，但在太阳能领域，中国显然采取了较聪明的策略，也就是在现阶段大力生产市场目前所需的技术。我正在二度造访台湾的旅途中，并思考着也许这次该好好研究一下台积电的太阳能计画；他们将为这个吹着整并风的太阳能产业埋下什么伏笔？ 编译：Judith Cheng 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文： An entrepreneur's view of solar，by Rick Merritt

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{pagination} An entrepreneur's view of solar Rick Merritt SAN JOSE, Calif. – "The solar panel business is all going to China," said Valdis Dunis, a long time entrepreneur and friend. It was July and we were having coffee in one of Hong Kong's snazzy upscale hotels. I was on my way to Taipei to write about Windows 8 on ARM and fabless IP companies, so I was just storing away his comments to a place somewhere in the far back of my mental filing cabinet. Yesterday when Silicon Valley's clean tech icon Solyndra publically crashed and burned, Valdis' comments flooded back to the forefront of my mind. As usual, Valdis' opinions were well informed. He had been working for some time as the founder of Solar Cities Asia, assembling the business plan for a company that aimed to be a leader in rooftop solar installations in this sun-drenched region. Much of Valdis' time recently had been devoted to pouring over complex financing issues. He was jazzed he had found a way to make the numbers for installing rooftop solar on commercial buildings very compelling, essentially using creative ways a lowered utility bill could be factored into the equation of amortizing the hardware. I got the impression the solar rooftop business was all about how you ran the numbers, including what government incentives were available. But Valdis is an engineer at heart, so he kept a keen eye on the technology as well. He had watched China sources of mainstream crystalline solar panels ramp up in volume and down in price over the last year or so. He was very curious about TSMC's plans for solar panels based on CIGS technology. He encouraged me to research how the initiative was going and expressed skepticism even they could master the complex technology behind it. I didn't make the connection those giant Solyndra fabs along I-880 back in Fremont, Calif., were using similar technology and were in a similarly dicey position. But it didn't take long for market realities to catch up to what Valdis had already concluded. Word is China has given away tens of billions of dollars to help its local manufacturers step on the gas in mainstream crystalline technology, essentially buying market share in solar. They were following the pattern set by Samsung and LG in DRAMs and LCDs a generation ago. These days the big U.S. and Japan memory and display makers are consolidating to catch up with Korea's giants. Similarly a solar shakeout seems to be here in the wake of the rising China juggernaut Valdis saw coming months ago. CIGS, thin-films and other solar technologies still have plenty of promise. Efficiencies of solar cells are abysmally low. A new approach could offer a performance breakthrough to leapfrog China in the market--someday. But that technology is not here today. The lesson of Solyndra, experts say, is solar alternatives deserve private and public funding at the level of lab research to pave the way for next-generation breakthroughs, but crystalline is the bet to make in mainstream manufacturing. It is edging toward the dollar/Watt sweet spot and its competitors don't seem to be close at the moment. U.S. investors love to bet on leapfrog technologies that will become the next big thing. But in solar China appears to have a smarter approach at this stage of just out-producing everyone in what the market wants today. I am headed back to Taipei shortly and thinking maybe this time I really ought to check into TSMC's solar plans. They may be digging in Hsinchu the next big hole in a consolidating solar industry.