日本芯片出口回升过快，8月订单出现衰退

来自挪威的市场研究机构 Carnegie Group 分析师Bruce Diesen指出，日本芯片业者从 311大地震与海啸灾难复原的速度比预期快了许多，曝露了部分零组件有双重下订(double-ordering)的状况；而也因为通路业者试图清理库存，使得芯片订单出现衰退。 Diesen表示，世界半导体贸易统计组织(WSTS)即将发表的 8月全球芯片销售额三个月平均值是244亿美元，较7月份的249亿美元稍有衰退；8月份全球芯片销售额的三个月平均值出现月衰退是一个例外，过去十年来，只有2001年出现过相同的情况。 “我们认为这是因为全球经济景气不明朗，再加上日本地震发生后的第一个月厂商累积额外的库存，造成通路业者开始清囤货。”Diesen表示，日本芯片出口量在7月份大幅成长，但其超乎预期的复原速度也曝露了有不少客户在地震后重复下订的情况：“讽刺的是，日本芯片出口量在7月的反弹回升，可能会让很多客户取消8月份的订单。” Diesen表示，PC市场所受到的影响，应该是来自Acer与HP的高库存水位；至于低阶手机与汽车用半导体市场的表现则相对强劲。他仍将2011年全球芯片市场营收成长率预测值维持在4%，但也表示如果8月份芯片市场表现如他所言，9月又没有改善，恐怕得下修预测。 编译：Judith Cheng 本文授权编译自EETIMES，版权所有，谢绝转载！ 参考原文： Analyst: Destocking hit August chip sales，by Peter Clarke

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{pagination} Analyst: Destocking hit August chip sales Peter Clarke LONDON – Japan's chip exports getting back on track faster than expected after the Great Quake and Tsunami of March 2011 has exposed double-ordering of components and caused a slump in chip orders as distributors try to de-stock, according to Bruce Diesen, an analyst at Carnegie Group (Oslo, Norway). The three-month average of global chip sales for August is going to be reported as $24.4 billion by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization, down on the $24.9 billion reported for July, Diesen said. This would be an exceptional sequential fall as the three-month moving average has climbed in August compared with July in all but one (2001) of the last ten years. "We think there was destocking at distributors due to uncertainty about the world economy, plus unwinding of extra inventory bought in the first months after the Japanese earthquake," said Diesen in a note to clients. He said that Japanese chip exports rose sharply in July, but the quicker than expected recovery had revealed that many customers double ordered in the months after the earthquake. "Ironically, the rebound in Japan’s exports in July probably prompted many customers to cancel orders in August," Diesen said. The PC market is probably affected due to high inventories at Acer and HP, Diesen said. The market for semiconductors for low-end handsets and automotive were likely among the more robust sectors. Diesen is sticking with his annual global chip market dollar growth forecast for 2011 of 4 percent, but said that if August comes in as expected and September does not improve a cut will be necessary.