股东们已经对RIM CEO失去信心

Research In Motion (RIM)公司CEO James Balsillie应该是生活在一个周遭没有任何RIM公司股东的另类世界吧！他天真乐观地相信RIM公司正好运连连，而投资人却似乎认为这家Blackberry手机制造商只是在快速地走下坡中。 就在九月中旬，James Balsillie在该公司第二季财报会议上发表了乐观的谈话。他说，RIM公司正感受到市场对其产品的强劲需求。服务营收攀升至10亿美元的新高纪录，而新款“Blackberry 7 智能手机已如期上市，同时由于这项产品融合了技术性能与工业设计方面的优势，因而深获合作伙伴与用户好评。” 听起来不错吧？但投资人可不这么认为。RIM公司日前在华尔街股市交易一开盘，股价就暴跌超过22%，仅在几分钟之内其市值就狂跌约37亿美元。当然，这样的跌幅毕竟太过火，开盘后第一小时内股价已稍微恢复些。但在我完成这篇报导的当天，该公司股价跌幅约达19%。然而，在投资界看到的是，当一位分析师在路透社的报导中发布这些消息时，RIM公司的高层仍“公然否认”。 这并不是天马行空的恣意判断。但Balsillie在该公司财报电话会议上听起来就像是一部脱轨的暴走列车。事实上，由于Balsillie持续不断地喊话，指出他深信RIM公司正处于强势地位，很快地就能超越像苹果(Apple)、三星电子(Samsung Electronics)以及其它前几大智能手机与平板电脑供货商，这可能会让人以为整个世界都错估了RIM公司所面临的挑战。 以下是Balsillie在财报会议上所提出的一些看法： Blackberry智能手机的需求在所有地区都十分强劲 ... ... 在北美，Blackberry 7智能手机正大受欢迎，并从上季的最后几周到目前为止都持续带动销售增加... 亚洲Blackberry智能手机市场仍持续强劲且不断成长中，Blackberry Playbook平板电脑也已在第二季时于该区推出。这一地区中的主要电信业者和零售业伙伴都十分积极地透过广告、店内展示以及更具吸引力的BlackBerry智能手机及相关配件搭售等方式来支持Blackberry Playbook平板电脑的销售。 RIM公司目前在资产负债表上仍维持有大约14亿美元现金的强势位置... 推动更高的成本效益以及有效管理组织结构是一个连续的过程，但我们觉得RIM至今已取得了重大的进展；同时，我们对于所安排的团队未来能够成功地达到Blackberry社群需求及执行转换计划等目标也深具信心。 以上纯属Balsillie另类世界的个人看法。但股东以及投资人们对于该公司的竞争立场则有不同的想法。分析师们先前预计RIM在今年第二季约有44.7亿美元的营收。事实上，该公司发布的财报数字为41.7亿美元，不但低于上季的49.1亿美元营收，并较去年同期的46.2亿美元减少了11%。毛利率从2010年第二季的44.5%下降到38.7%，而现金及短期投资则由21亿美元下滑至12亿美元。(该公司在联合收购北电专利上花费约7.5亿美元，但跌幅所显示的营运现金基本上仍是零。) 投资人也不满意RIM PlayBook平板电脑在第二季出货量仅20万部的成绩，这一数字远远低于上一季的50万部出货量。他们甚至还担心毛利率连续下降5.2%可能会成为一种常态。 最后，如果Balsillie对于RIM的未来感到乐观是依据最近的公司营运发展，如Blackberry Bold 9900上市，那么股东们的担心和怀疑则来自于深切关心该公司得以成功地与苹果以及三星等公司竞争抗衡的能力。 再者，也不能责怪股东们大量拋售RIM股票的行动。Balsillie个人认为该公司12亿美元的现金还有一半之多，但投资人却认为RIM在处于与苹果公司较劲的位置时己没有什么现金优势了。 当出货量下滑，现金流降低，利润压力持续加剧，而重要的产品上市(PlayBook平板电脑)后也无法吸引广大的客户群时，你又如何能够严正地说服投资人相信自己仍是一家有竞争力的厂商，还有能力和银行中有750亿美元以及全线产品一上架就卖光光的强大对手抗衡？ 编译：Susan Hong 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文：RIM CEO's Alternative Universe ，by Bolaji Ojo

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{pagination} RIM CEO's Alternative Universe Bolaji Ojo James Balsillie, CEO of Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM) (Nasdaq: RIMM; Toronto: RIM), must be living in a different world populated mainly by non-RIM shareholders. He believes the company is on a roll, while investors seem to think the Blackberry maker is simply rolling downhill -- fast. On Thursday, Balsillie delivered an optimistic speech during the company's fiscal second-quarter earnings conference call. RIM, he said, was experiencing strong demand for its products. Service revenue climbed to a record $1 billion, and the new "Blackberry 7 smartphones launched on schedule and have been enthusiastically received by our partners and customers for their blend of technical performance and industrial design." Sound great? Investors didn't think so. Today, RIM's stock price fell more than 22 percent at the beginning of trading on Wall Street, shaving approximately $3.7 billion off its market value within minutes. Of course, the decline was overdone, and the stock recovered somewhat within the first hour of trading. At the time this report was written, it was down only 19 percent for the day. However, the perception in the investment community is that RIM's top executives are in "blatant denial," as one analyst put it in a Reuters report. That's not a huge leap in judgment. Balsillie sounded like a runaway freight train during the company's earnings conference call. In fact, one would have assumed the entire world was mistaken about the challenges facing the company as he pounded away with phrases that indicated he believes RIM is in a strong position and would soon outrun companies like Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (Korea: SEC), and other top smartphone and tablet PC vendors. Here are some telling comments from Balsillie: Demand for Blackberry smartphones was strong across all regions... In North America, Blackberry 7 smartphones are having an excellent reception and have driven a meaningful increase in sell-through in the region during the last few weeks of the quarter and so far in September... Asia continues to be a strong and growing market for Blackberry smartphones, and the Blackberry Playbook was also launched in the region during Q2. Key carriers and retail partners in the region are supporting Playbook with advertising support, prominent in-store displays, and attractive bundle offers with Blackberry smartphones and accessories... RIM's balance sheet remained strong with a cash position of approximately $1.4 billion... Driving cost efficiency and managing the organization's structure is a continuous process, but we feel we have made tremendous progress and are confident the teams we have in place can successfully meet the future needs of our Blackberry community and execute on our transition plan. That was the view from Planet Balsillie. Shareholders and investors have a different take on the company's competitive position. Analysts had projected RIM would report revenue of approximately $4.47 billion for the quarter that just ended. Instead, it posted $4.17 billion, down from $4.91 billion in the preceding quarter and a decrease of 11 percent from $4.62 billion in the same quarter last year. The gross profit margin fell to 38.7 percent from 44.5 percent in the same quarter in 2010, and cash and short-term investments slipped to $1.2 billion from $2.1 billion. (The company spent $750 million on its joint purchase of Nortel patents, but the decline still indicates cash from operations was essentially zero.) Investors also didn't like the fact that RIM shipped only 200,000 Playbook tablet PCs in its fiscal second quarter, down from 500,000 units in the immediately preceding quarter. They were also worried the sequential decline of 5.2 percentage points in the gross profit margin could become permanent. Finally, if Balsillie's optimism about RIM's future was based on more recent developments, such as the introduction of the Blackberry Bold 9900, the wariness and skepticism from shareholders rests on divergent, deepening concerns about the ability to compete successfully against the likes of Apple and Samsung. Again, it's hard to fault the shareholders dumping RIM's shares. Balsillie sees a half-full glass in the company's $1.2 billion cash pile, but investors see a near-empty cup when they juxtapose RIM's position against Apple's. When your shipments are falling, cash is low, margin pressures are intensifying, and a major product launch (Playbook tablet PC) fails to ignite the customer base, how can you seriously and convincingly argue you are a viable competitor against a rival with $75 billion in the bank and a lineup of products that keep flying off the shelves?