在趋向成熟的智能手机市场，苹果(Apple)已经抵达最高峰；现在最大的问题则是，他接下来的会不会开始走下坡？
苹果从零一跃成为智能手机之王，主要是得益于iPhone实际上是一个开放性手机网络浏览器以及应用程序平台；但现在看来，市场竞争重点已经转变为更多样化的功能与更完整的产品阵容，而且其竞争对手越来越强。
根据市场研究机构IHS iSuppli的最新统计数据， “其它厂商(请参考下页表格)“已经成为占据智能手机市场最大比例的一群，市占率达20%，出货量年成长率为310%。居于苹果之后的第二大智能手机品牌三星(Samsung)，年出货量成长率是惊人的600%，而且市占率(17.8%)已经与苹果的18.4%相去无几。
新发表的 iPhone 4S显示，这一系列智能手机不再有关于技术或设计概念上的大突破，而是巧妙地以小步伐前进；这款新iPhone并不是第一支采用双核心处理器，以及支持800万画素相机与1080p分辨率规格的智能手机，其它Android阵营竞争产品早就抢先一步。
(我们的姐妹公司UBM TechInsights预测，iPhone 4S用的 A5 处理器与iPad 2所使用的三星制造45奈米芯片是同一款，并非是据报导已通过台积电28奈米制程验证的版本；他们还预言iPhone 4S采用的是Omnivision的800万画素相机模块…到底是不是这样？有待揭晓～)
与前一代iPhone 4外观几无差异的iPhone 4S ，采用了与iPad2相同的A5双核处理器hhfesmc
但如果思想领导者只做了一些些对手早已经赶上的进步，我认为这意味着他遇上麻烦了…就连iCloud，从某种方面来看那也只是苹果赶上了 Google 目前可提供的线上服务。
事实上，我们现在已经可以看到，在苹果最快于2012年推出配备NFC行动支付功能的LTE手机之前，其Android竞争对手早已经达到以上目标。要看到所谓的“iPhone 5“问世可能要等上一年，那时候目前的高阶Android手机已经两岁了。
本文下一页：中低阶市场是软肋
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
相关阅读：
• 传iPhone 5将于10月4日发布，iPhone 4或降至99美元
• 平板电脑与智能手机正在融合？
• iPhone5争夺战——中移动联通的兄弟对决hhfesmc
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中低阶市场是软肋
另一个值得注意的重点是，苹果迄今并未推出低阶甚至中阶的智能手机，这不是他们的作风；但很遗憾，市场观察家大多同意，未来两年智能手机市场的主要成长动力，正是来自苹果不会涉足的中低阶产品。其它厂商也都看到了这一点。
“我们预期苹果在今年第三季与之后的智能手机市场，仍能维持成长动能；“ IHS iSuppli资深分析师Francis Sideco 在iPhone 4S 发表之前曾表示：”然而，三星已经在过去的几季透过同时推出高阶与中低阶机种，变得越来越强。“
Sideco当时并指出：“未来半年到一年的智能手机市场竞争格局演变关键指针，在于苹果适不是会继续只专攻高阶产品市场。“
苹果的沉默已经回答了以上问题；以我的财力来说，智能手机市场现在只有三星，HTC与其它品牌已经在这一局落败。这并不是代表Apple乏善可陈，该公司从A系列处理器、iOS到零售点统包的垂直整合业务能力，是消费性电子产业领域所有人都羡慕的。
另外苹果藉由提供 iCloud 服务简化跨iOS平台装置的整合，也是一项重要战略。也就是说，你用Mac计算机iTunes下载的一首歌，会同时在你的 iPhone 出现；或者是你用iPhone付费下载的电子书，也能透过iPad来阅读。
以上是苹果能做得比别人好的一件事情，而且必然会吸引那些拥有来自不同供货商之Android装置的使用者；那些装置通常无法互通，就算可以也不会很顺畅。
无疑的，苹果还是会因为诸如此类以使用者为中心的软件整合，取得一定程度成长动能；但他无法永远抵挡Android大军。再加上，我们还没看到接下来几个月诺基亚(Nokia)-微软(Microsoft)联军将会有的表现；虽然我不预期会有多大震撼力，但他们确有本事建立一个能在手机市场占据一席之地的生态系统。
刚问世的 Kindle Fire 可能是第一个侵蚀 iPad 领土的强大威胁者；如果亚马逊(Amazon)把惠普(HP)的WebOS吃下，其吞食速度恐怕会更快。而且苹果没办法永远用法律诉讼这一招，来阻挡三星的Galaxy 平板这类装置进入所有的市场。
我预期苹果在占据几季的优势之后，可能会有一小段时间走下坡，除非他们能再出奇招，比如于2015年左右推出另一个定义数字消费性市场的产品；例如“iTV”之类的…你说呢？
本文下一页：iPhone 4S 成本203美元
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
相关阅读：
• 传iPhone 5将于10月4日发布，iPhone 4或降至99美元
• 平板电脑与智能手机正在融合？
• iPhone5争夺战——中移动联通的兄弟对决hhfesmc
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32 GB iPhone 4S BoM估价203美元
EETimes美国版姊妹公司、拆解分析机构 UBM TechInsights 预估，新亮相的32-GB版本 iPhone 4S 物料清单(BOM)成本为203美元，与2010年中问世的第一代 iPhone 4 相当。
UBM TechInsights表示，这是根据以前iPhone 4的历史成本，以及iPhone 4S新的主要零件来估计的。 203美元包括了苹果A5处理器（26美元）和Retina显示屏（31美元）——苹果称之为：有史以来手机中分辨率最高的屏。
该机构还推测，iPhone 4S的利润将与之前版本的iPhone差不多。
“从技术角度来看，iPhone 4S并没有任何革命性或是非预料中的元素；”UBM TechInsights商业情报副总经理Jeffrey Brown表示：“如我们在7月所预测的，iPhone 4S是iPhone 4的小改款，配备已经被使用了约9个月的 A5 处理器、让该款手机与竞争对手看齐的影像传感器，以及增强版的电池续航力。”
全新支持1080p高画质录像的增强版摄影机hhfesmc
苹果在美国时间10月4日发表的iPhone 4S配备双核心A5处理器、支持1080p高画质录像的增强版摄影机，以及命名为 Siri 的智能辅助功能；预定10月14日在美国开卖，16GB版本订价199美元，32GB版本订价299美元。该公司并表示新款手机将在10月底，于全球22个以上国家销售。
本文下一页：LTE环境不成熟导致iPhone 5延期
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
相关阅读：
• 传iPhone 5将于10月4日发布，iPhone 4或降至99美元
• 平板电脑与智能手机正在融合？
• iPhone5争夺战——中移动联通的兄弟对决hhfesmc
{pagination}
LTE环境不成熟导致iPhone 5延期
原本市场预期苹果会推出支持4G通讯的全新“iPhone 5”，但出场的却是iPhone 4的小改款iPhone 4S；市场研究机构IHS iSuppli预测，苹果应该会等到有一款可实现更纤薄手机外型的、价格合理的芯片组解决方案问世，才会推出支持LTE的“iPhone 5”，时间大概是在2012年底或是2013年中。
之前谣传支持LTE网络的iPhone 5假想图hhfesmc
“就像苹果的一贯作风，该公司为iPhone 4选择的功能，是基于优异的使用者体验，而不是为了技术而技术。”IHS iSuppli资深分析师Francis Sideco表示：“因为如此，苹果并没有推出支持 LTE 的iPhone，因为价格会更高、尺寸更大、耗电也更凶；而是选择推出一款无线上网速度差不多、但使用者体验更优异的产品。”
UBM TechInsights 技术情报副总经理David Carey则认为，苹果决定不推 LTE 版iPhone的原因，是与LTE技术渗透率进展缓慢有关；与该公司合作首卖第一代iPhone的电信业者AT&T，到现在都还没有推出4G网络服务。
根据UBM TechInsights 的说法，可跨GSM/ CDMA网络的iPhone 4S，在Verizon版(也就是CDMA版) iPhone 4问世时就已埋下伏笔。
“当CDMA版iPhone 4上市时，所采用的高通(Qualcomm)基频调制解调器芯片就有支持双频的功能；”Brown表示：“这是苹果准备推出可节省设计时间与量产成本的“全球通用”手机之最大伏笔，如此一来苹果不需要再为不同的电信业者生产两种手机。我们预期新机型的天线设计会与CDMA版iPhone 4非常相似。”
Carey指出，iPhone 4S是苹果‘产品周期’的一部分：“就像我们所看到的iPhone 3G进展至iPhone 3GS的技术小改进，苹果在跃进iPhone 5平台之前，采取了相同的逐步演进模式。”
相比3G到3GS的改变，4代到4S的变化更小一些hhfesmc
编译：Judith Cheng
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
参考英文原文： Apple iPhone 4S: Beginning of the end?，by Rick Merritt; BoM for 32-GB iPhone 4S estimated at $203, by Dylan McGrath
相关阅读：
• 传iPhone 5将于10月4日发布，iPhone 4或降至99美元
• 平板电脑与智能手机正在融合？
• iPhone5争夺战——中移动联通的兄弟对决hhfesmc
{pagination}
Apple iPhone 4S: Beginning of the end?
Rick Merritt
SAN JOSE, Calif. – Apple has reached a summit in what is becoming a mature smartphone market. Its biggest issue now is whether the rest of the journey is all downhill.
Apple rose from zero to king of the smartphone hill this year, largely on the strength of its realization in the iPhone that the handset is an open mobile Web browser and applications platform. But now competition has become a game of adding incremental features and rounding out product lines, and the competitors are coming on strong.
"Other" is already the biggest player in the category with 20 percent market share and growing at 310 percent a year, according to the latest figures from IHS iSuppli (table at bottom). At number two to Apple, Samsung is coming on strong at an astounding 600 percent growth and is already nearly even with Apple's 18.4 percent share, the market watcher said.
The iPhone 4S launched today proves the smartphone is no longer about big breakthroughs in technology or high concept. It's about smartly taking small steps forward. It is not the first smartphone to sport a dual-core processor, 8 MPixel camera or 1080-progressive video support. Those kudos have already been handed out to its Android competitors.
(It will be interesting to see if my UBM TechInsights colleagues were correct that this is still the Samsung-made 45nm A5 used in the iPad 2, not the 28nm version still reportedly grinding through the TSMC fab. They also predicted an 8MP Omnivision camera and an overall underwhelming iPhone 4+.)
When the thought leader is making only incremental advances that largely catch up with competition, I think it says the thought leader is in trouble.
Even iCloud in some ways is only Apple catching up with Google's online offerings.
Indeed, we can now see it will be at least 2012 before Apple rolls out an LTE handset using near-field communications for mobile payments—big steps its Android competitors have already taken. That's probably the iPhone 5 a year from now, basically a two year old high-end Android handset.
It's also worth noting Apple has not rolled out a low- or even middle-end smartphone to date. That's not the game as Apple plays it. Unfortunately for Cupertino, market watchers agree most of the smartphone growth for the next two years will be in those mid- and low-end segments where Apple won't play.
Others see this, too.
"We expect Apple to continue to maintain its momentum in the smartphone market in the third quarter and beyond,” said Francis Sideco, senior wireless analyst for IHS in comments released just before the iPhone 4S launch.
“However, Samsung has been coming on strong during the last few quarters, driven by its participation in both the high- and low-end smartphone segments," Sideco said. "One of the key indicators of how the smartphone competitive landscape will evolve during the next six to 12 months will be whether or not Apple will continue to stay exclusively in the high-end market,” he added.
That question just got answered by Apple's silence. For my money, the smartphone game is Samsung's, HTC's and Others' game to lose at this point.
That's not to say Apple doesn't have some great things going for it. It's vertically integrated model of owning everything from the A-series processor and iOS to the retail outlet is the envy of everyone in the consumer business.
Also strategic is the way Apple is providing ease of integration across iOS devices with its iCloud services. But an iTunes song on your Mac; it appears on your iPhone. Buy a book on your iPhone; it's available on your iPad.
This is the sort of thing Apple does better than anyone, and it is bound to attract users with Android devices from multiple vendors that don't work together nearly so well—if at all.
No doubt, Apple will gain some growth from such smart user-centric software integration. But it cannot hold off the Android herd forever.
And we have yet to see what Nokia and Microsoft will come up with in the next few months. I don't expect to be blown away, but they have the clout to create an ecosystem that grabs a slice of the expanding mobile pie.
The Kindle Fire could be the first to eat into the iPad tablet franchise in a big way. If Amazon buys HP's WebOS group, its appetite will grow considerably. And Apple can't use court actions to keep the well designed Samsung Galaxy iPad-alike devices out of all markets indefinitely.
I see Apple riding the crest for a few quarters then slowly riding the downward curve awhile. Unless it can grab one more brass ring and help define yet another major digital consumer market in say 2015 or so.
iTV, anyone?
BoM for 32-GB iPhone 4S estimated at $203
Dylan McGrath
SAN FRANCISCO—The bill-of-materials (BoM) for the 32-GB version Apple Inc.'s newly announced iPhone 4S is estimated to be about $203, roughly the same as the original iPhone 4's BoM when it was launched in mid-2010, according to a preliminary estimate by UBM TechInsights.
UBM TechInsights, which is owned by the same company that publishes EE Times, UBM plc, said it derived its estimate from previous cost history and estimates on the major components of the iPhone 4S. The $203 estimate includes an estimated cost of $26 for the smartphone's Apple A5 processor and $31 for the Retina display, described by Apple to be the highest-resolution phone screen ever.
UBM TechInsights concluded that the iPhone 4S will achieve the same healthy profit margin that Apple has garnered from previous iPhones.
"Technology-wise, you aren’t seeing anything revolutionary or unexpected from the iPhone 4S," said Jeffrey Brown, vice president of business intelligence at UBM TechInsights. "As we predicted in July, the iPhone 4S is a moderate improvement over the iPhone 4—featuring an A5 processor that has been in use for approximately nine months, an image sensor that puts the handset on par with its competitors and improved battery life."
The iPhone 4S, introduced by Apple at a press event here Tuesday (Oct. 4), features Apple's dual-core A5 processor, a new camera with advanced optics, full 1080p high-definition resolution video recording and an intelligent assistant feature called Siri, according to Apple. It will be available Oct. 14 in the U.S. for $199 for a 16-GB model, $299 for a 32-GB model adn $399 for a 64-GB model. The handset will be roll out in more than 22 countries worldwide by the end of October, according to the company.
Apple was widely expected to launch iPhone 5, an entirely new model supporting 4G. Instead, the company introduced iPhone 4S, an incremental update of iPhone 4. According to market research firm IHS iSuppli, Apple is likely to introduce an LTE-capable iPhone 5 when an affordable chipset solution allowing a thinner form factor is available, likely in late 2012 or in mid-2013.
"As Apple always does, the company selected features for the iPhone 4 that are designed to deliver a superior customer experience, rather than to provide technology for technology’s sake," said Francis Sideco, senior principal analyst for wireless communications at IHS, in a statement. "Because of this, Apple declined to offer an LTE-enabled iPhone that would have been more expensive, larger and more power hungry—and instead opted to introduce a device that delivers nearly the same wireless data speed, but with a superior user experience."
David Carey, vice president of technical intelligence at UBM TechInsights, said he believes Apple's decision not to introduce an LTE iPhone was related to the slow adoption of LTE. AT&T, the iPhone's original carrier, has yet to introduce 4G networks to customers, he said.
According to UBM TechInsights, the introduction of the iPhone 4S across GSM and CDMA networks in a singular design was alluded to in the introduction of the Verizon model of the iPhone 4.
"When the CDMA version of the iPhone 4 was brought to market, it featured a Qualcomm baseband modem that was capable of working across both networks," Brown said. "This was the single biggest indicator that Apple was moving towards a 'world phone' that would reduce design times and production costs. There would no longer be the need to produce two phones for different carriers to choose from. We expect the new antenna design to be very similar to what we saw in the CDMA version of the iPhone 4."
Carey said Tuesday's iPhone 4S announcement was "par for the course" for Apple. "Just as we saw a modest technology bump from the iPhone 3G to the iPhone 3GS, Apple is adopting the same model of iterative improvement and incrementalism as they gear up for the iPhone 5 platform," Carey said.
UBM TechInsights plans to conduct a comprehensive teardown analysis of the iPhone 4S when they hit stores Oct. 14. Information about the teardown of the original iPhone 4 is available on the firm's website.
责编：Quentin
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