包括 KLA-Tencor 、 Novellus Systems 与 Teradyne 等半导体设备大厂陆续在近日公布最新一季财报结果，其销售业绩一如预期呈现衰退，而且他们也估计下一季业绩将衰退更多；这些厂商的收入来源集中在晶圆代工厂对32纳米与28纳米制程节点的投资。
在此同时， EDA 供货商 Cadence Design Systems的第三季财报结果则是表现亮眼，该公司表示第四季业绩将会再度出现成长。不过Cadence一反近日半导体产业界常态的成长表现，可能有部分原因是来自于会计计算方法与授权合约，这些因素通常会让EDA业者的业绩表现比其它半导体业者、资本设备供货商来得稳定。
KLA-Tencor 截止于9月30日的 2011年第三季营收为7.96亿美元，较前一季减少11%，但较去年同期成长17%；不过根据Yahoo Finance，该公司第三季业绩比分析师预估的7.92亿美元高了一些。KLA-Tencor总裁暨执行长Rich Wallace 表示，由于全球经济持续疲软，加上半导体产业的正常循环，让客户缩减订单或是延迟产能扩充计画，该公司估计本季新订单与上季相较减少了43%，金额来到4.86亿美元。
Wallace表示，KLA已看到客户对 28纳米制程设备的强劲需求，目前芯片制造商正在进行相关投资，以克服该节点的良率挑战；而KLA也积极因应来自多家晶圆代工业者对先进制程节点设备的需求。Wallace表示，来自晶圆代工厂的订单占据KLA第三季新订单的57%，该公司预期来自晶圆代工业者的需求将会持续到第四季，主要是为因应28纳米制程的量产。
KLA预期该公司第四季业绩将减少18~25%，来到6~6.5亿美元；不过当季订单可出现25%~45%的成长。KLA也预期2012年第一季将恢复营收成长。KLA的第四季财报预估与分析师所估计的7.1亿美元有所落差；Wallace表示，该公司对于内存供货商将在短期内增加产能投资抱持希望：“我们确实看到内存产业的希望，但还没有看到太多行动；在这个节骨眼上，厂商谈投资都是说的比做的多。”
市场研究机构Barclays Capital分析师Christopher Muse则表示，他与分析师同仁们对于晶圆代工厂增加资本支出的幅度都感到惊讶；但也补充指出，他看好来自晶圆代工厂的28纳米与32纳米技术投资商机，会是产业萧条期的一大亮点。
另一家半导体设备业者Novellus截止于9月24日的新一季财报结果为3.067亿美元，较上一季减少12%，较去年同期减少17%。该公司第三季订单金额减少至2.269亿美元，较上一季衰退27%；当季出货金额则为3.016亿美元，较第二季减少16.1%。Novellus董事长暨执行长Richard Hill表示，全球市场的动荡也影响到资本密集厂商的投资，但该公司仍对市场的科技产品基本需求抱持乐观，认为这将让该公司安然度过萧条时期。
自动测试设备(ATE)供货商Teradyne的第三季业绩为3.44亿美元，较上一季减少30%，较去年同期减少了30%。该公司第三季订单金额2.4亿美元，其中有1.96亿美元来自半导体测试部门，4,400万美元来自系统测试业务部门。
Teradyne总裁暨执行长Mike Bradley表示：“本季半导体测试订单与相关业务营收，随着产业趋势走软，但我们仍看到来自行动设备市场由电源管理芯片、影像传感器芯片、手机处理器等带动的、相对强劲的成长。”该公司预期第四季业绩将会再次衰退，来到2.7~3亿美元，此数字与分析师的估计大致相符。
EDA供货商Cadence的第三季业绩为2.92亿美元，较去年同期成长23%，高于分析师所估计的2.85亿美元。不过Cadence与其它EDA供货商所认列的营收，是以合约周期来看，并非是该期间的销售；因此EDA厂商的营收表现周期通常会比其它半导体厂商迟几个月。
Cadence总裁暨执行长Lip-Bu Tan表示：「来自多个市场的热络设计活动，持续驱动对于我们的产品与解决方案之需求。」该公司预期第四季业绩将再成长至2.95亿至3.05亿美元；至于 2011全年度，则估计总营收在11.35亿美元至11.45亿美元之间。
编译：Judith Cheng
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
参考英文原文：Downturn drags on chip equipment sales，by Dylan McGrath
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Downturn drags on chip equipment sales
Dylan McGrath
SAN FRANCISCO—As expected, semiconductor equipment suppliers that posted quarterly results this week—including KLA-Tencor Corp., Novellus Systems Inc. and Teradyne Inc.—reported declines in sales and they expect more of the same in the fourth quarter. But they generally singled out investments by foundries in 32- and 28-nm process technologies as a pocket of strength.
Meanwhile, EDA vendor Cadence Design Systems Inc. reported a third quarter increase in sales and said it expects further increase in the fourth quarter. The relatively strong Cadence results—an anomaly in the semiconductor industry these days—may be partially attributed to accounting methods and licensing contracts, which generally cause EDA sales to be less volatile than those of semiconductor firms and capital equipment suppliers.
KLA (Milpitas, Calif.) reported sales of $796 million for the quarter ended Sept. 30, down 11 percent from the previous quarter but up 17 percent from the year-ago quarter. KLA reported a net income of $192 million, or $1.13 per diluted share, down 22 percent from the previous quarter but up 25 percent from the year-ago quarter.
KLA's third quarter sales exceeded consensus analysts' expectations of about $792 million, according to Yahoo Finance.
Rich Wallace, KLA's president and CEO, said in a conference call with analysts following the company's report that persistent economic weakness compounded normal cyclicality in the semiconductor industry, leading customers to scale back or delay planned capacity expansion. New orders for KLA declined 43 percent sequentially during the quarter to $486 million, Wallace said.
Wallace said KLA is seeing strong demand for tools for 28-nm process technology. Chip builders are investing to overcome challenges to yield at that node, he said. KLA is scrambling to meet demand for some of its leading-edge technology products from multiple foundries, he said. "Right now, it looks very good," Wallace said.
Foundries accounted for 57 percent of KLA's new orders during the quarter, and Wallace said the company expects growth in orders from foundries to continue during the current quarter. Foundry demand is being lead by market leaders ramping up their 28-nm process technology, Wallace said.
KLA said it expects sales for the current quarter to fall to between $600 million and $650 million, a steep decline of between 18 and 25 percent. The company said it expects bookings for the quarter to improve by between 25 percent and 45 percent. KLA said it expects revenue growth to improve in the calendar first quarter of 2012.
KLA's guidance came in well short of consensus analysts' expectations of about $710 million, according to Yahoo Finance.
Wallace said KLA is hopeful that memory suppliers will soon being to increase capacity investments. "We do see hope for memory, but we didn't see much action," Wallace said. It’s more talk and less action right now at this point in terms of investment."
Christopher Muse, an analyst with Barclays Capital, said he and fellow analysts were surprised by the magnitude of the increased foundry spending expected, but added that he has been expecting all along that foundry investment in 28- and 32-nm technologies would be a beacon of strong business in the downturn.
Novellus, Teradyne, Cadence
Novellus (San Jose, Calif.) reported sales of $306.7 million for the quarter ended Sept. 24, down 12 percent from the previous quarter and down 17 percent from the year-ago quarter. Novellus said its net income for the third quarter was $51.1 million, or 73 cents per share, a decline of $13.6 million from the second quarter and a decline of $25.2 million from the third quarter of 2010.
Novellus said its third quarter bookings decline to $226.9 million, down 27 percent from the previous quarter. Shipments amounted to $301.6 million, down 16.1 percent from the second quarter, Novellus said.
"The current global market volatility has affected capital intensive business investment but we are optimistic that the underlying demand for technology products will enable us to profitably ride through this period of uncertainty," said Richard Hill, Novellus chairman and CEO, in a statement.
"Specific to Novellus, we see continued uncertainty regarding the true opportunity in adjacent markets and gross margin headwinds from the Industrial business, with the main source of EPS upside coming from buybacks," Muse said.
Automated test equipment supplier Teradyne (North Reading, Mass.) reported third quarter sales of $344 million, down 16 percent from the previous quarter and down 30 percent from the third quarter of 2010. Teradyne reported a GAAP net income of about $192 million, or $1.15 per share, up 25 percent compared to the year-ago quarter.
Teradyne reported bookings of $240 million in the third quarter, $196 million from semiconductor test and $44 million from its system test group. The company did not say how the bookings compared with previous quarters.
"Semiconductor test orders and revenue softened in line with industry trends during the quarter, but we continued to see relative strength in the mobility segments driven by power management, image sensors, wireless and mobile processors," said Mike Bradley, Teradyne president and CEO, in a statement.
Teradyne said it expects sales to further decline in the fourth quarter to between $270 million and $300 million. Teradyne's fourth quarter guidance was generally in line with consensus analysts' expectations, according to Yahoo Finance.
Cadence (San Jose, Calif.) reported third quarter sales of $292 million, an increase of 23 percent compared to the third quarter of 2010. The company recognized a net income for the quarter of $28 million, or 10 cents per share, down from $127 million and 48 cents per share in the year ago quarter, when the company's results were boosted by a tax settlement.
Cadence's third quarter sales exceeded consensus analysts' of about $285 million and the company's non-GAAP earnings of 14 cents per share exceeded consensus analysts' expectations of 12 cents per share, according to Yahoo Finance.
Cadence and other EDA vendors recognize revenue over the life of a contract, not at the time of sale. EDA revenues tend to lag semiconductor industry upturns and downturns by several months.
"Strong design activity in multiple market segments continues to drive demand for our products and solutions," said Lip-Bu Tan, Cadence president and CEO, in a statement.
Cadence said it expects its revenue to grow in the fourth quarter to between $295 million and $305 million. The company said it expects its fourth quarter net income to be between 8 and 10 cents per share. For the full year, Cadence said it expects sales to be between $1.135 billion and $1.145 billion. The company said it expects to report an income for the year of 31 to 33 cents per share.
"Given the risks in the world economy we looked at our prospective Q4 business very closely, but still see good demand for products and services as reflected in our increased outlook," said Geoff Ribar, Cadence's senior vice president and chief financial officer.
