Gartner调降2012年芯片市场预测，但调高手机增长

市场调研公司Gartner周四(12月8日)调降了对2012年全球半导体市场的预测，目前预计该市场2012年将达到3090亿美元，比今年的预期水平增长2.2%。 美国Gartner先前预测2012年半导体市场增长4.6%。 Gartner公司的调研副总裁Bryan Lewis在声明中表示，由于欧洲金融危机看来将持续下去，消费者与企业的支出前景都存在不确定性，将对半导体产业带来重大影响。Lewis表示：“短期预测不仅受到经济因素的影响，而且受到库存修正、制造方面供应过剩和自然灾害的影响。” Gartner还降低了对2012年PC产量的预测，目前预计2012年PC产量增长5.1%，低于先前预测的10.1%。Gartner表示，经济形势黯淡和泰国洪灾对供应链的影响，均是促使其调降PC产量预测的主要原因。 Gartner公司预测，2012年全球DRAM市场将增长3%，预计2011年下降26%。由于移动消费设备强劲增长，NAND闪存目前预计是2012年增长最快的领域，预计上升16.6%。 Gartner公司表示，预计2012年手机产量增幅略高于先前的预估。该公司现在预计2012年手机产量增长7.5%，高于先前预测的7%。 但Gartner公司降低了对媒体平板产量的预测，目前预计明年该产品的产量为1.07亿个，低于先前预测的1.1亿个。但降低后的预测产量仍比2010年高出63%。 Lewis表示，Garnter公司的最新预测显示，智能手机、媒体平板和固态硬盘将共同推动半导体市场在2015年前增长77%。 本文授权编译自EETIMES，版权所有，谢绝转载！ 参考英文原文：Gartner cuts 2012 chip market forecast

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{pagination} Gartner cuts 2012 chip market forecast Dylan McGrath Market research firm Gartner Inc. Thursday (Dec. 8) reduced its forecast for the 2012 global semiconductor market, saying it now expects the market to reach $309 billion, a 2.2 percent increase from the projected total this year. Gartner (Stamford, Conn.) had earlier forecast that the semiconductor market would grow by 4.6 percent in 2012. Bryan Lewis, research vice president at Gartner, said through a statement that uncertainty over spending by both consumers and enterprises in light of the European financial crisis appears set to continue, bringing significant implications for the semiconductor industry. "The near-term forecast is being shaped not only by economic forces but by an inventory correction, manufacturing oversupply and natural disasters," Lewis said. Gartner also lowered its PC production forecast for 2012, saying it now expects PC unit growth of 5.1 percent for the year down from an earlier forecast of 10.1 percent. Gartner cited not only a weak economic backdrop, but also lingering supply chain effects from the Thai floods, for the PC production forecast cut. Gartner did forecast that the global DRAM market will grow by 3 percent in 2012, following a projected decline of 26 percent in 2011. NAND flash is the expected to be the fastest-growing device category in 2012 with 16.6 percent growth due to strong growth in mobile consumer devices, Gartner said. Gartner said it does expect slightly higher mobile phone production unit growth in 2012 than it did in its previous forecast. The firm now expects mobile phone production units to increase 7.5 percent in 2012, up from an earlier estimate of 7 percent. But Gartner lowered its forecast for media tablet production, saying it now expects 107 million units to be produced next year, down from an earlier forecast of 110 million. Even the reduced forecast for media tablets calls for 63 percent production growth compared to 2010. Lewis said Garnter's latest forecast analysis predicts that dollar growth in smartphones, media tablets and solid-state drives will in total generate 77 percent of semiconductor market growth through 2015.