华尔街分析预测半导体产业营收2012年增长4%以下

美国华尔街分析师预测，全球半导体产业营收继2011年成长1~2%之后，2012年成长率将在0~4%之间。 “我们仍维持对半导体产业的乐观看法，认为景气将在 2012年第一季触底，并在下半年随着库存去化而全面复苏；下半年产业成长率表现可望超越终端市场。”Barclays Capital分析师CJ Muse表示，该机构估计2012年半导体产业成长率将表现持平、最多至4%，与低于原先预期的全球GDP成长率一致。 Barclays Capital稍早之前预期，2012年全球芯片产业成长率为2~5%；Muse表示，该机构下修预测数据是反映目前产业调整库存动作持续到2012年第一季的状况。此外该机构预测 2012年全球 GDP成长率为3.3%。 Muse对 2012年芯片产业成长率的预测，与大多数其它机构分析师的看法也相去不远。在 2011年底，Gartner预测全球半导体产业 2011年成长率约1%， 2012年成长率则为2.2%；在 2011年11月，IHS iSuppli分析师预测，2011年半导体产业销售额成长率为3.2%。 此外Muse也表示，Barclays Capital分析师仍维持对全球前段制程晶圆设备(front end wafer equipment)产业2012年将衰退5%的预测。 编译：Judith Cheng 本文授权编译自EETIMES，版权所有，谢绝转载！ 参考原文： Analyst sees another flattish year for ICs in 2012，by Dylan McGrath

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{pagination} Analyst sees another flattish year for ICs in 2012 Dylan McGrath SAN FRANCISCO—Semiconductor revenue is forecast to grow by zero to 4 percent in 2012, after likely growing about 1 to 2 percent in 2011, according to a Wall Street analyst. "We maintain our positive stance on semis, with the vision that the recovery will be more of a 2H12 story led by a trough in 1Q12, with depleted inventories thereafter setting up for semi growth in 2H12 that should outpace end markets," said CJ Muse, an analyst with Barclays Capital, in a report circulated Tuesday (Jan. 3). Muse said his firm's estimate of flat to 4 percent sequential growth for the semiconductor industry in 2012 is in line with to slightly lower than expected worldwide GDP growth. Barclays' forecast for chip growth is slightly lower than the firm's previous forecast for 2012, which called for growth of 2 to 5 percent for the year. Muse said. According to Muse, the downward revision was made to reflect the ongoing inventory adjustment lasting into the first quarter of 2012 and estimated worldwide GDP growth of 3.3 percent expected for the year. Muse's forecast for chip industry growth in 2012 is consistent with what large market research firms have said in recent weeks. Late last year, Gartner Inc. forecast that semiconductor revenue would grow 2.2 percent in 2012 after growing about 1 percent in 2011. In November, IHS iSuppli said it expects semiconductor sales to grow 3.2 percent in 2011. Muse said Barclays' analysts continue to expect that sales of front end wafer equipment will decline 5 percent in 2012.