苹果产品的设计灵感甚至输给模仿者？

苹果(Apple)的死忠粉丝都深信这家公司绝对不会做错事，这种奉承在一家公司独大的状况下可能没事，但对于立足像是消费性电子这样竞争激烈市场的企业来说，会是很危险的；苹果应该要听听那些批评者的声音。 在 2011年底，笔者参加了一场投资者会议，与会者讨论了各嵌入式平台阵营的缺失，以及什么原因可能会让苹果无法持续扩张市场版图。在该场会议上，不只一个人认为苹果在关键市场领域(包括智能手机、可携式音乐播放器以及平板装置)有流失市占率的危险；这些人手上都握有数百万美元的资金，他们的分析也反映了这种“优势”。 其 中有人是这么说的：“我怀疑有很多人都为苹果产品的“好用”留很多余地，苹果产品实际上似乎只是比其它竞争产品“好用一点”，但在使用者感受与体验上并没 有非常大的差异。这是苹果与其它厂牌之间“神奇差距(magic gap)”的一部分，而对于苹果产品“就是好用”的感知经验，是一个很值得追踪的讯号。” 如果你曾经开放追踪那种“感知经验”，你可能也注意到，其它竞争对手都在加紧脚步缩短与苹果之间的设计差距。根据市场研究机构comScore的统计数据，在智能手机操作系统领 域，Google的 Android 平台在 2011年11月的市占率由8月时的43.8%成长为46.9%，同时间苹果iOS的市占率则由27.3% 增加为28.7%。 在平板装置领域，其它竞争对手也在蚕食苹果的领导地位；根据Semico Research分析师Tony Massimini的统计数据，亚马逊(Amazon)的 Kindle Fire ：“在不到两个月的时间内拿下了7.5%的市占率。”该机构估计，苹果在平板装置市场的占有率目前为67%，略低于 2010年的87%。但这意味着苹果的市场版图正逐渐被侵蚀吗？Semico并不这么肯定。 其它分析师则预测了苹果在 2012年的一些悲惨命运。如Brian Deagon在《Investor's Business Daily》投稿的一篇报告指出，苹果产品现在已经有“过气(stale)”迹象；他表示： “苹果的iPod、iPhone与iPad等产品重新定义了市场与‘酷’这个形容词，但接下来呢？iPhone外观仍旧是四四方方平平，感觉有点过时，三星 (Samsung)的 Galaxy系列智能手机似乎还比较酷。随着Google的Android 平台跃居成长最快的手机操作系统，苹果的软件优势正在衰减；当智能手机与平板装置成为成熟产品，苹果将被Android大军吞蚀。” 针对Deagon的这篇文章，苹果粉丝阵营的反应如预期的──激烈；其中让我印象最深刻的一则留言，他为苹果辩护的观点是指该公司：“可利用银行帐户内的数十亿美元现金来锁定供应链来源，取得最顶级的零组件。”没错，苹果手头是有850亿美元左右的现金以及长期投资，可用以确保零组件来源，但现在问题在于设计，并不是如何有效利用资金。 有一些消息来源指证，竞争对手为了缩小与苹果的设计差距，对于创新的反应更快；我用我自己作为一个最不科学的例子，以下是我对EBN社群编辑Barbara Jorgensen谈论我最新入手电子产品的内容(提示：那不是一款苹果产品)： “我买了一支新手机──Samsung Galaxy S2，这是我曾拥有过最酷的装置之一，我用得非常开心，因为它具备除了煮饭之外我所需的所有功能。我用它下载电子书、安排个人约会、用实时通、玩‘愤怒的小鸟’、上网，还在去纽约旅行时查询离我最近的餐厅、作为卫星导航设备使用，连我的一个(已经有iPhone的)家人也十分赞赏它。我还需要一台平板装置， 但我知道我不想要屏幕像笔电那么大的iPad；这意味着我可能会选择Kindle Fire！” 如果我个人的感受可以代表某个足够比例的市场消费者，我想我得建议苹果在设计策略上面提高战备了。 编译：Judith Cheng 本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文：Is Apple Losing Its 'Cool' Design Edge?，by Bolaji Ojo；本文作者为EBN总编辑

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{pagination} Is Apple Losing Its 'Cool' Design Edge? Bolaji Ojo Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) diehard fans believe the company can never do anything wrong. That kind of adulation may be fine when you head a dictatorship, but it can be dangerous for a business enterprise operating in a field as keenly competitive as the consumer electronics market. Apple should listen to what critics are saying. Late last year, I attended an investors' conference at which participants discussed platform failures and what could derail continued sales expansion at Apple. Of course, not a single person at the conference thought Apple was in jeopardy of losing to anyone in its key market segments (smartphones, portable music players, and tablet PC), but participants were people with millions of dollars at stake, and this was reflected in their analysis. The comment made by one of them is relevant for our discussion here: I have a suspicion lots of folks give Apple products leeway for "working" when really it seems the products are simply really working "just a bit" better than the alternative, not the monumental difference users may perceive/experience. This is part of the "magic gap" Apple has, and that "perception" of Apple products "just working" is a great signal to track. If you've been open-tracking that "perception," you might have noticed rivals are hurrying to close the design gap. In smartphone OS, the Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android, as at the end of last November, had 46.9 percent market share, up from 43.8 percent in August, comScore Inc. reported. Apple's market share rose to 28.7 percent from 27.3 percent during the period (at the expense of RIM, which tumbled more than three percentage points). In tablet PCs, competitors are chewing at Apple's (still significant) leadership position. EBN blogger and Semico Research Corp. analyst Tony Massimini noted Amazon "carved out a 7.5 percent market share in less than 2 months" with the Kindle Fire. Semico projects Apple's share in tablet PCs is likely in the 67 percent range, down from 87 percent in 2010. (See: Is Amazon's Kindle Fire Burning Apple?.) But does this translate into a slow market erosion for Apple? Semico doesn't necessarily think so. But another analyst had some dire predictions about Apple for 2012. Apple, according to Brian Deagon, who wrote an article on the subject for Investor's Business Daily, currently has "stale products." Here's more from the article: With the iPod, iPhone and iPad, Apple (AAPL) redefined markets and defined cool. But what's left? The iPhone is boxy, flat and feeling stale. The Samsung Galaxy smartphone seems cooler. With Google's (GOOG) Android platform now the fastest-growing mobile OS, Apple's software advantage will diminish. Smartphones and tablets will become commodity items and Apple will be eaten by the collective Android gang. The reaction from the Apple fan base has been as expected -- fierce. Click here for a review of the comments. My favorite was a writer who in his defense of Apple noted the company "uses its billions of dollars in the bank to lock down its supply line resources for top notch components." OK, Apple has $85 billion or so in cash and long-term investments and has leveraged that to secure components, but the issue is about design, not the effective use of money. The anecdotal evidence suggests rivals are responding faster to innovations from Apple, thereby closing the design gap between them and the company. I'll use myself as the purely unscientific example. Here's how I gushed to EBN Community Editor Barbara Jorgensen about my latest purchase. Hint: It's not an Apple product. I bought a new personal phone -- the Samsung Galaxy S2. It's one of the coolest devices I've had the pleasure of playing with because it does everything I need aside from cook a five-course meal. I have downloaded books on it; do my personal appointments on it (separate from work-related appointments, which is liberating); dictated IM on it (I speak, it types -- awesome!); played Angry Birds on it (definitely addictive); surfed the Web; asked it for the nearest restaurants during a trip to New York; navigated myself to places around home and well outside of my home state (the GPS is crystal clear and accurate); and even caught a member of the family (who owns an iPhone) admiring it secretly. I may still get a tablet but I know now I don't want a laptop-screen size iPad. Which means? It may be a Kindle Fire! If I am representative of a large enough portion of the market, I would suggest Apple jacks up its design game.