雅虎别再犹豫，把RIM收了吧！

EBN博客作家Anna young日前在文中指出，雅虎公司(Yahoo Inc.)需要一个更大胆冒险的全新发展计划。我认为Yahoo所能采取的最佳行动就是收购正陷于混乱中的Blackberry制造商──Research In Motion (RIM)。特别是在竞争对手不断蚕食两家公司分别在搜索引擎与行动设备市场之际，这两家公司更迫切地彼此需要，一旦犹疑不决，这两家公司的抉择将越来越少。 这两家公司都面临着同样的困扰──无法超越原有的服务与产品，以寻求公司转型。RIM一度称霸智能手机与行动企业传讯(enterprise messaging)领域──其BlackBerry智能手机曾经是商务人士的宠儿，而今他们腰间所配戴的行动设备却已不再是RIM手机，而由苹果公司 (Apple)以及Google Android的设备所取代了。 越来越多的业界传闻证实：RIM公司除非能提出新的发展计划力求振作，否则其企业传讯市占率将持续下滑。以我自己的例子来看，最近我的公司提供了一支iPhone 3替代我原本的BlackBerry公务手机。长久以来我都使用BlackBerry手机，因此，至今才知道公司的企业传讯系统也可支持iPhone。但这并不只是发生在我的公司。由于许多员工厌倦了BlackBerry设备的功能选择有限，越来越多公司开始提供并支持竞争产品。像我个人就感觉三星 Galaxy S2的新使用体验越来越令人满意。当然，并不是只有我一个人这么觉得。就连苹果公司共同创办人Steve Wozniak也认为Android的设备在某些方面仍较苹果的iOS胜出。 Yahoo的情况并没好到哪里去，实际上是越来越严重。该公司的市占率正迅速地流向Google和Facebook。其广告营收基础已经被像Facebook这样的社群媒体公司侵蚀，导致整个公司的营收正大幅衰退中。Yahoo公司的销售数字大幅下滑，从2010年第四季的16亿美元减少到2011年第四季约12亿美元。预计年营收也将自2010的 46亿美元大幅下滑至2011年约为44亿美元左右。业界预观察家甚至预期Yahoo在2012年的营收将较2011年仅微幅增加至45.6亿美元。 这两家公司看来都不算是理想的收购目标。Yahoo并未提出收购价码供考虑，而微软似乎也只对于将Yahoo拆解开来买有兴趣。但这毕竟不是Yahoo想要 的。如果Yahoo出售其于中国阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的40%股份，以及在日本Yahoo约35%的股份，那么公司市值还可能更进一步下跌，并因而将影响其于全球的竞争能力。除此之外就没有其它可能收购Yahoo的潜力买家了──除了业界最大的科技公司以外，这家市场资本额达200亿美元的 Yahoo对于任何公司而言都太大规模了，不太可能吃得下来。 RIM也并未提出任何可能的收购邀约。本月中旬，由于市场预测三星公司有兴趣收购RIM，使得RIM的股票价格飙升。 本文下一页：两家公司互相嫌弃 本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载

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{pagination} 业界分析师们并不看好对于RIM的收购交易。美商Sterne Agee公司分析师Shaw Wu顾虑的是RIM公司目前约90亿美的市值可能为潜在的收购投标者带来挑战，特别是因为该公司已经没多少优势了。针对我的提问，Shaw Wu在回复我的email中对于三星或微软收购RIM的可能性泼了一桶冷水。他说： “我们认为该公司约有 50-70亿美元的潜在价值，即每股约9-13美元。我们认为，RIM最有价值的资产就在于其专利产品组合和BlackBerry Messenger (BBM)应用程序。我们估计其专利组合可能价值20-30亿美元，这个价格可能是苹果公司主导(RIM也是其中之一)共同付给北电的金额，以及 Google收购Motorola Mobile公司的价格。此外，对于具有4,500万用户BBM方案而言，估计其价值约有20-30亿美元。 最后且重要的是，我们认为RIM的push network与BlackBerry操作系统的价值较令人质疑，因为这两项产品都面临着市场竞争的问题。尽管如此，我们估计其价值约10亿美元(取得Palm所付出的代价)。因此，估计RIM约有50-70亿美元的价值，即9-13美元的股票价格，但约略低于该公司目前的行情。 当 然还有其它必须注意的考虑因素：（1）三星采用Android操作系统的表现相当不错了──事实上，他们正逐渐取得更多向宏达电(HTC)与摩托罗拉 (Motorola)授权的其它Android厂商的市占率；（2）微软公司积极投入于其Windows Phone 7操作系统──再另外下注于另一个陷于困境中的操作系统并没什么意义；（3）在国家安全利益的考量下，加拿大政府并不允许外资在加国境内的收购行动。” 不过，我认为这场竞赛最后也不至于失败。RIM仍然是一家有盈利而无长期债务的公司。所以，就是Yahoo的最佳选择了。RIM拥有健全的资产负债表(约 15亿美元现金、短期和长期投资)，Yahoo也一样(没有债务，拥有70亿美元现金、短期和长期投资)。RIM每年营收约199亿美元(2011财 年)；而Yahoo在这方面虽相形见绌(2011年约63亿美元)，不过这家搜索引擎供货商却拥有一个庞大的市场资本(200亿美元v.s. RIM公司的90亿美元)，这意味着投资人并不会注意到RIM具有的更高销售数字。 所以，这就是我的建议。两家公司合并吧！ 有些市场观察家并不相信合并的公平性，我也认同这样的看法。Yahoo将因而主导这一合资企业。那么，这样的一种合并行动对于两家公司来说又有什么好处 呢？首先，对于双方展开全新发展的迫切需要；其次，取得进入新市场以及巩固现有业务地位的机会；第三，带来可善加利用约85亿美元合并现金以及更大借贷实 力的机会，以推动至更大相邻市场地位。最后，未来将可相互支持共同在网际网络与无线市场打拼的机会。 但RIM和Yahoo可愿采取这样的步骤？我对此表示怀疑。这两家公司已经蛰伏太久了，加上RIM公司目前采取双CEO以及双董事会主席的结构本身就是一大阻碍。无论如何，目前清楚可知的是两家公司对于彼此的现状都并不感兴趣。 编译：Susan Hong 本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文：Yahoo's Next Best Move? Buy/Merge With RIM，by Bolaji Ojo

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{pagination} Yahoo's Next Best Move? Buy/Merge With RIM by Bolaji Ojo EBN blogger Anna Young says Yahoo Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO) needs a new bolder and riskier growth plan. Here's one: It should buy troubled BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM) (Nasdaq: RIMM; Toronto: RIM). Both companies need each other direly, and their options dwindle as they dawdle, even as competitors chew up their respective market shares in search engine and mobile devices. (See: Yahoo, Yang-less, Needs Riskier, Bolder Plan.) The two companies are plagued by a similar malaise -- the inability to transform beyond original services and products. RIM was once King of the Hill in smartphones and mobile enterprise messaging. Its BlackBerry smartphones were the darling of business people, but the waists that once were adorned with RIM phones are now sporting Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android devices. Anecdotal evidence is piling up that RIM's share of the enterprise messaging market will keep declining, unless it comes up with a new plan. Recently, I misplaced my company-issued BlackBerry device and was offered an iPhone 3 as a possible replacement. I stuck with the BlackBerry, but until then, I didn't even know my company supported the iPhone for enterprise messaging. It does, now. And, it's not alone. More companies, pressured by employees tired of the BlackBerry's limited options, are supporting and offering competitive products. Personally, I am discovering newer and newer uses for my Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (Korea: SEC) Galaxy S2, which I am quite satisfied with. Apparently, I am not alone. Even Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak believes Android devices trump Apple iOS in some areas. Yahoo's position isn't any better, and it is in fact getting worse. The company is losing market share fast to Google and Facebook . Its advertising revenue base is being eroded by social media companies like Facebook, and the decline is likely to keep accelerating. The company's sales have been sliding with year-over-year quarterly revenue dropping in the three months ended September 30, 2011 to $1.2 billion from $1.6 billion, in the year-ago quarter. Sales for 2011 are estimated to be in the range of $4.4 billion, down sharply from $4.6 billion in 2010. Forecasters expect Yahoo's 2012 revenue to rise only slightly from the prior year to $4.56 billion. Neither company is a great acquisition target. Yahoo has no offers on the table, and it appears Microsoft is only interested in buying bits and pieces of the company. This is not in Yahoo's interest. If Yahoo sells its 40 percent stake in China's Alibaba and 35 percent interest in Yahoo Japan, its market value is likely to decline even further, and so will its ability to compete globally. No other potential offers are likely for Yahoo, which, with a market capitalization of nearly $20 billion, is too large to be gobbled up by anything but the biggest tech companies in the market. None of them appear interested. RIM is not fielding any plausible acquisition offers, either. The company's stock price soared earlier this week on speculations Samsung Electronics might be interested in making an offer, a rumor that the Korean company torpedoed on Wednesday. RIM's shares are already giving up the gains; on Wednesday, they dove more than 3 percent after the Samsung report. Analysts are not particularly gung ho about a deal for RIM. Shaw Wu of Sterne Agee was concerned that RIM's current market value (about $9 billion) poses a challenge to potential bidders, since the upside might be "limited." In a report emailed to me on Wednesday, Shaw poured cold water on the likelihood of Samsung or Microsoft making a bid for RIM. He said: We see $5-$7 billion potential value, meaning $9-$13 per share. We believe its most valuable assets are arguably its patent portfolio and BlackBerry Messenger (BBM) app. We estimate its patent portfolio could be worth $2-$3 billion assuming the prices that an AAPL led team paid (which RIMM was part of) for Nortel assets and GOOG for MMI. For BBM with its 45 million users, we estimate it could be worth $2-$3 billion. Last but not least, we believe the value of its push network and BlackBerry OS are more questionable given competitive issues both have had in the marketplace but nonetheless, we assign a value of $1 billion (the price paid for PALM). This gives us a valuation of $5-$7 billion, meaning a stock price of $9-$13, which is a bit below where it is currently trading. Other considerations. The other considerations to keep in mind are: (1) Samsung is doing very well with Android -- in fact, they are taking share against fellow Android licensees HTC and Motorola; (2) MSFT has effectively made its bet on its Windows Phone 7 operating system -- it makes little sense to bet on another OS that is having difficulty; and (3) the Canadian government may not allow an acquisition by a foreign company due to national security interests. Ouch. The game is not lost, though. RIM is still a profitable company with no long-term debts. So is Yahoo. RIM has a healthy balance sheet (about $1.5 billion in cash, short- and long-term investments) and so does Yahoo (no debts and $7 billion in cash, short and long-term investments). RIM's annual sales of $19.9 billion (fiscal 2011) dwarfs Yahoo's ($6.3 billion in calendar 2011), but the search engine provider has a much bigger market capitalization ($20 billion versus RIM's $9 billion), which means investors aren't that impressed with RIM's higher sales. So, this is what I suggest. A merger of the two companies -- some market watchers don't believe in a merger of equals, and I tend to agree. Yahoo will therefore dominate such a venture. What are the advantages of such a hook up to both companies? First, a much needed new lease on life; second, the opportunity to enter new markets and solidify positions in existing operations; third, a chance to leverage about $8.5 billion in combined cash and significant borrowing strength to push for a bigger role in adjacent markets; and, lastly, the chance to fight for a future in the mutually supportive Internet and wireless markets. But will RIM and Yahoo take such a step? I doubt it. They've both been too timid for far too long, and RIM's current co-CEO and co-chairman structure is in itself obstructionist. What's clear is that the status quo isn't in either company's interest.