IHS iSuppli：2012年全球半导体市场将增长3.3%

市场研究机构 IHS iSuppli 日前发布更新版的 2012年全球半导体市场成长率预测，表示今年该市场将成长3.3%，营收规模3,232亿美元；该机构去年11月的预测数字，是认为2012年全球半导体市场成长率为3.2%，营收规模3,182亿美元。 IHS iSuppli 指出，2012年半导体市场成长速度将趋缓，主要是因为全球景气前景不明，以及半导体库存情况变动缓慢。不过该机构也表示，如果美国与世界其它区域的景气在2013年复苏，整体情况将会有大幅度改善；预期在 2013年至2015年间，整体半导体市场成长率可在6.6%~7.9%之间，市场营收规模在 2015年可达3,977亿美元左右。 最新版的IHS iSuppli 半导体市场 2012年成长率预测数字，大致上与其它市场研究机构看法相符，大部分是较低的个位数字；例如Gartner预测2012年半导体市场成长率为2.2%，世界半导体贸易统计组织(WSTS) 的预测数字则为2.6%。 也有分析师对于 2012年芯片市场前景较为乐观，例如Future Horizons 认为该市场2012年将成长8%，IC Insights预测成长率为7%，资深芯片市场分析师Mike Cowan的预测数字则为5.9%；另一位来自International Business Strategies 的分析师Handel Jones则预期，芯片市场将在2012年成长6~7%之后，于2013年再度走下坡。

IHS iSuppli对2010年~2015年全球半导体市场营收预测UJTesmc

“芯片市场2011年与2012年的惨淡表现，都可归咎于半导体产业无法控制的、外部的景气情况；包括暧昧不明的全球经济趋势，以及包括美国、欧洲、日本与中国等全球主要市场所遭遇的困境。”IHS iSuppli半导体产业分析师Len Jelinek表示，由于宏观经济无法提供有力的支持，半导体产业因此受到压力。 消费者支出也是一个影响芯片市场成长率的关键，IHS iSuppli表示，虽然在 2011年底的耶诞采购季，消费者买气成功降低了电子产品等内含半导体组件的装置之库存水准，其力道却不足以激活可重振芯片需求的库存回补效应。 本文下一页：半导体需求Q2前恐维持低迷 本文授权编译自EETIMES，版权所有，谢绝转载！

相关阅读：
• 纵观全球半导体市场，直面中国电子业“严冬”
• 2011年全球半导体市场采购大户TOP10排名UJTesmc

{pagination} IHS iSuppli指出，芯片厂商虽在 2011年第三季刻意降低产能利用率，但程度还不够让库存水准下滑至可引发额外订单效应，或是提升产能利用率；也因为如此，电子厂商对半导体组件需求在 2012年第二季之前恐将维持低迷。 而也因为整体半导体产能利用率在 2012年中以前难复苏，IDM大厂恐怕连维持一些表现不佳生产据点的营运都会遭遇前所未有的压力；IHS iSuppli预期，大多数提升产业内部效率的资本支出，可能会推迟至2013年。 以芯片类别来看，IHS iSuppli指出内存市场将再度于2012年经历黑暗期，估计年度DRAM销售额将继2011年衰退26.8%之后，再度衰退16.1%； NAND闪存市场2012年表现可能会稍逊于去年，主要因为各厂商为因应智能手机、平板装置等产品对内存大量需求而增加的产能陆续到位。 受平板装置、智能手机与工业用产品需求带动，无线通讯芯片将会是 2012年半导体市场成长主要推手；不过IHS iSuppli表示，振兴半导体产业的关键，还是来自核心PC与PC外围市场的显著需求成长。 编译：Judith Cheng 本文授权编译自EETIMES，版权所有，谢绝转载！ 参考原文： IHS forecasts 3.3% chip growth in 2012，by Dylan McGrath

相关阅读：
• 纵观全球半导体市场，直面中国电子业“严冬”
• 2011年全球半导体市场采购大户TOP10排名UJTesmc

{pagination} IHS forecasts 3.3% chip growth in 2012 Dylan McGrath SAN FRANCISCO—Market research firm IHS iSuppli Tuesday (Jan. 31) revised its 2012 semiconductor market forecast upward slightly, saying it now expects chip sales to grow 3.3 percent this year to reach $323.2 billion. The forecast is a small revision from one issued last November, when IHS projected that chip sales would grow 3.2 percent this year to reach $318.2 billion. Nevertheless, IHS noted that the projected growth for the year is sluggish, citing uncertain global economic prospects and slow moving semiconductor inventory. But IHS said the overall picture could brighten considerably if the U.S. and the rest of the world recover in 2013. Under such a scenario, growth from 2013 to 2015 would average between a 6.6 and 7.9 percent, with total semiconductor revenue by 2015 rising to some $397.7 billion, IHS said. IHS' 2012 semiconductor market forecast is generally consistent with that of other market research firms, who for the most part have projected low single-digit growth for 2012. Gartner Inc., for example, is currently predicting 2.2 percent growth for the year, while the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization projects 2.6 percent growth. Other analysts are slightly more bullish on the prospects for 2012 chip revenue growth. Future Horizons Ltd. is currently projecting 8 percent growth for the year, while IC Insights Inc. pegs growth at about 7 percent and veteran chip analyst Mike Cowan projects 5.9 percent growth. Handel Jones of International Business Strategies forecasts the chip market contracting in 2013 after a 6 to 7 percent rise in 2012. "Much of the weak performance in both 2011 and this year can be attributed to external circumstances over which the semiconductor industry has no control—the ambiguous state of the global economy, along with assorted troubles in the world’s major markets of the United States, Europe, Japan and China," said Len Jelinek, director and chief analyst of semiconductor manufacturing research at IHS, in a statement. The semiconductor business is coming under pressure because the world economy is not in a strong enough position to drive growth, Jelinek said. Consumer spending, another key factor for the chip market, lowered the level of inventory of electronic devices and other items incorporating semiconductors during the 2011 holiday season, but not enough re-energize chip demand to replenish stockpiles, IHS said. Chip firms deliberately cut their production run rates in the third quarter of last year, but not enough to bring inventory levels down to levels that would have fired up additional orders and increased factory run rates, the firm said. As a result, semiconductor demand for manufacturers will remain depressed until the second quarter of 2012, according to IHS. Because factory utilization will not recover until the middle of 2012, IDMs will experience even greater stress to simply maintain the viability of underperforming factories, IHS predicted. Most capital expenditures to boost efficiency within the industry likely will be pushed out to 2013, IHS said. Memory chips will experience the most hardship once again in 2012, IHS predicted. DRAM sales are expected to decline 16.1 percent this year after dropping 26.8 percent in 2011, the first said. NAND flash will see a less stellar year in 2012 compared to 2011 because of additional capacity coming on to meet a surge of demand for the memory in devices like mobile handsets and media tablets, IHS said. Wireless communication chips will be a strong market driver this year, spurred by media tablets, smartphones and industrial electronics, IHS said. But for the semiconductor industry to revitalize, it is crucial that the core PC and peripheral markets experience a significant increase in demand, IHS said