在 2012年移动通讯世界大会(MWC)首日的专题演说场次结束后，来自北京的知名风险投资业者Peter Liu拉着我的袖子说：“移动上网市场将会变得非常庞大。”的确会很庞大，我们刚刚才听到四大电信业者表示，他们估计光是欧洲市场，布建 LTE 网络的费用就高达300亿美元；而他们才刚花了将近80亿美元购买频谱，以支应4G无线上网流量。
一切只是时间问题。目前在全球26亿蜂窝式网络使用者中，LTE注册用户只有900万个；而全球4G用户有四分之三集中在北美，大多数是采用 AT&T与Verizon委托Alcatel-Lucent、Ericsson在2010年开始布建的网络。其它LTE用户集中地在韩国──据说 每个月用户增加25万人──与日本，这两个区域的网络是委托Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN)布建；NSN表示，该公司在26个国家签了52个LTE网络合约，不过目前只有22个正在运行。
中国市场也不落人后；当地最大移动通讯业者中国移动(China Mobile)总经理李跃(Li Yue)透露，今年将布建2万个FDD LTE基地台，而2013年将至少有3座城市的LTE网络会开始营运。NSN网络系统产品主管Thorsten Robrecht表示：“第一波LTE浪潮现正掀起，我们应该会在今年看到一些大动作。”但分析师的看法较不乐观，一份野村证券(Nomura)研究指 出：“全球资本支出今年将会持平或是呈现些微下滑。”
确实，连一位来自MWC主办单位GSMA的发言人都表示，全球经济景气仍然不明、市场已逐渐走向成熟，相关法规门槛增高使得产业成长率受限；更糟的是，欧洲电信业者发现，每用户平均收益(average revenue per user)由2007年的26欧元，在2011年减少至20欧元，但用户资料流量却持续成长。
Vodaphone 与Nokia Siemens Networks主管Iqjesmc
在这种拮据的情势下，Vodaphone首席执行官Vittorio Colao在一场专题演说中，重申他们希望产业界能共同投资下一代网络布建的呼吁，但是：“到目前为止，我们还没有成功说服任何人加入。”随着电信业者纷纷寻求分摊庞大资本支出与营运成本的方法，这个议题应该会持续受到关注，特别是当那些费用分摊到咖啡馆、灯柱的小型基地台时。为这类投资寻找适当业务模式的过程，可能会拖累整体网络布建速度，让LTE技术真的变成“长期演进”。
本文下一页：小型基地台将有大商机？
编译：Judith Cheng
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
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小型基地台将有大商机？
到目前为止，第一代LTE网络都是使用传统的大型基地台(macro base stations)，但随着电信业者需要更大的频宽，预期小型基地台的布建将会掀起另一波浪潮。西班牙电信业者Telefonica无线网络业务总监 Ian Miller表示，预期在接下来五年，小型基地台将协助电信业者处理增加30倍的资料流量。
Telefonica在MWC展场布建了十数个Alcatel-Lucent的小型基地台，做为相关技术的首度现场实测；Miller指出：“这些小型基地台是可行的，但单价需要从目前的2,000~5,000欧元，降低到1,000欧元以下。”
Telefonica无线网络业务总监Ian MillerIqjesmc
Miller的愿望可能成真，因为市场竞争会逐渐白热化；传统大型基地台设备供货商，以及针对住宅用户专卖小型基地台──俗称毫微微蜂窝式基地台(femto cell)──的新兴业者，预期会在2013年因为一种新诞生的中等尺寸基地台而开始聚合；这种中等尺寸基地台将通常会同时支持包括3G、LTE与Wi- Fi，供大型企业或是电信业者布署于大楼或是路灯柱。
这些中、小型基地台的独家秘方就是软件，能让电信业者轻松将之整合到主网络中，并利用三种无线技术顺畅管理资料流量。目前3GPP、IETF等蜂窝式技术与网络产业团体，正在针对相关的授权协议、安全性与管理功能订定相关标准。
针对手机与网关器应用，InterDigital在MWC展示了一种IP流可移动性技术(IP Flow Mobility)；Ericsson则发表首款微型基地台(下图左)，这款可支持128个用户的装置预定明年出货，结合了其蜂窝式技术与收购 BelAir Networks所取得的电信等级Wi-Fi技术。另一家网络设备业者NSN也打算在2013年推出一款微型基地台(下图中)，采用的是收购自 Motorola的技术，号称可扩充为100个微型基地台组成的网状网络，但管理起来就像传统的单一大型基地台。
Alcatel- Lucent在去年MWC就以一种小型化的立方体形状天线模块，展出一款Light Radio小型基地台概念机；从那时候起，该公司最多曾与7家电信业者共同开发相关产品，包括Telefonica 在今年MWC现场布署的那款小型基地台。不过大多数产业观察家认为，小型基地台的实际大量布署将在2014年以后才会展开。
本文下一页：今年MWC还有什么？
编译：Judith Cheng
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
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各种小型基地台方案展示Iqjesmc
在新创公司方面，有两家公司表示在毫微微蜂窝式基地台市场有所斩获；其中一家公司Ubiquisys透露将在2个月内与某电信业者合作，展开一款采用英特尔 (Intel) Sandy Bridge处理器、英特尔无线技术的小型基地台新产品实测，该产品配备80GB固态硬盘，可支持网页暂存(Web caching)等新兴服务。Ubiquisys首席技术官Will Franks (上图左)表示，这款新设备将填补大厂Ericsson相关产品线的缺口。
上述采用英特尔技术的小型基地台，可让Ubiquisys为客户带来具差异化的服务，而不只是卖低价小型基地台设备。包括Ubiquisys等厂商，都在致力为这类系统添加电信等级的管理软件，未来的产品机型必然会配备可支持3G、LTE与Wi-Fi三种网络流量管理的功能。据了解，NEC与 NSN已经同意在原厂方案中搭配销售Ubiquisys的系统。
另一家毫微微蜂窝式基地台供货商IP.access则能为电信业者与企业，提供整套的软硬件产品；该公司产品策略与行销副总裁Andy Tiller展示一款支持3G、LTE与Wi-Fi的消费性毫微微蜂窝式基地台(下图)，搭配管理软件。IP.access的技术最近获得Cisco采用，为现今布建最多数量该种设备的电信业者之一AT&T打造毫微微蜂窝式基地台；如同Ubiquisys等同业，该公司打算进军大型企业、电信等 级市场，并提供更多具附加价值的软件。
IP.access产品策略与行销副总裁Andy Tiller Iqjesmc
本文下一页：带动大资料流量的小设备
编译：Judith Cheng
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
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• 带你逛巴塞罗纳2012移动通讯世界大会
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带动大资料流量的小设备
2012 年MWC上充斥着各种有助于带动资料流量成长、带动网络成长的设备。Nvidia与华为(Huawei)都展示了最新的四核心处理器技术成果，可支持高画质视频与低延迟的游戏画面；其中华为发表的采用自家K3V2芯片的智能型手机与平板装置，Nvidia则宣布取得HTC、Fujitsu、ZTE等厂牌智能手机设计案。
Nvidia与华为展示最新四核心处理器技术Iqjesmc
移动支付也会是另一个成长动力；Telecom Italia总裁表示，这对电信业者来说是仅次于建置LTE网络的优先策略选项。他估计，到2015年，全球将有150万支手机利用NFC技术，进行总金额达500亿美元的金融交易。
国际性信用卡组织VISA在MWC期间，率先与Vodaphone签署了网络支付服务合作协议，预期在接下来几年，这样的搭配合作案例将会越来越多。一位 VISA的代表指出，要在保持移动支付安全性的同时兼顾各方之利益，采取这种一对一的合作是最明智、最能妥善处理其中复杂性的方案。
举 例来说，在安全性方面，有些手机使用所谓的SIM卡上安全元素，有些则使用microSD卡安全方案，或是Trusted Computing Group的硬件安全技术。VISA所展示的移动支付技术，可支持包括RIM、LG、Samsung等厂牌的手机，或是为Apple iPhone 4S打造的第三方设计之手机壳形式的解决方案。
移动支付服务将带动网络流量成长Iqjesmc
本文下一页：其它2012年MWC亮点
编译：Judith Cheng
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
相关阅读：
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至于其它创新无线应用，Ericsson展示一种仅占据60% 之LTE频段的现场直播电视方案；NSN则以透过4G网络发送的串流式指令，以机器人来展示LTE的低延迟性。
LTE网络直播电视Iqjesmc
透过LTE网络操控的机器人Iqjesmc
MWC 显然是一场大生意，如Ericsson等设备大厂都从世界各地邀请电信服务业高层前来参观展会，盛情招待(下图左是Ericsson的摊位)；NSN与华 为也设置了类似的大型展馆，并提供客户丰富的食物与饮料，当然是希望大订单也跟着来。甚至连小厂商也把摊位打造成像pub一样(下图右)，以吸引参观者驻 足。
MWC的特殊风景Iqjesmc
在商机处处的气氛下，我偶遇一位来自斯里兰卡的电信业高阶工程师，他打算在旅途中为2,000个3G与LTE基地台需求签下1.5亿美元的订单；这样一张订单将会让该国的蜂窝式基地台数量增加一倍。
展场上最受瞩目的就是电信设备大厂华为，该公司的展馆一直到最后一天都挤满人潮；而不同于其它公司摊位的好客，华为展馆甚至不开放给未预先约定时间的参观者。一位来自非洲的电信业代表告诉我，华为可提供价格相对较低的硬件，而且其服务也比传统欧洲设备业者更具灵活度、更周到；简而言之，华为争取客户态度积极，因此他的公司有意将设备采购合作对象由Ericsson换成华为。
还值得一提的是，新兴移动网络服务供货商如提供免费 “冰淇淋三明治(ice cream sandwich)”点心的 Android 摊位，挤满了大多穿T恤配牛仔裤的参观人潮，跟传统电信设备业者摊位(如Ericsson)上多是西装笔挺的人士形成鲜明对比。展会最后一天，主办单位开放所有民众参观，因此可以看到形形色色的人们，例如像是上图中精心打扮的参观者──很令人印象深刻吧！
编译：Judith Cheng
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
参考英文原文：Updated: Parting shots from MWC 2012，by Rick Merritt
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Updated: Parting shots from MWC 2012
Rick Merritt
The outlook for cellular networks is mixed with slow growth expected for LTE roll outs taking diverse approaches to keep pace with a burgeoning set of devices. BARCELONA – “The mobile Internet will be huge,” said Peter Liu, a prominent Beijing venture capitalist, grabbing my sleeve as we spilled out of the keynotes the first day of the Mobile World Congress.
Huge, indeed. We had just heard four top carriers say they expect Europe alone to spend $30 billion building out Long Term Evolution networks. They have already spent nearly $8 billion buying spectrum to carry 4G wireless traffic.
The big question is when. Only nine million subscribers are on LTE today out of 3.6 billion cellular users worldwide. Three-quarters of the 4G users are in North America, most on AT&T and Verizon nets built mainly with Alcatel-Lucent and Ericsson systems, starting in 2010.
Most of the rest of the LTE action is in Korea—said to be adding a whopping 250,000 subs a month--and Japan, two countries where Nokia Siemens Networks is getting traction. NSN claims it has 52 LTE contracts in 26 countries, only 22 of them now live.
China’s no slouch either. Li Yue, president of the country’s largest carrier, China Mobile, pledged to install 20,000 base stations this year using the TDD flavor of the technology. The deployments set the stage for as many as three cities to launch services in 2013, he said.
“The first LTE wave is just starting, this should be the year we see big activity,” said Thorsten Robrecht, head of product management for network systems at Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN).
Financial analysts are less bullish. A Nomura research note said it expects “global capex to be flat to down this year.”
Indeed, even a spokeswoman for the GSMA, the carrier trade group that hosts MWC, said the sluggish global economy, maturing markets and regulations are squeezing growth. Making matters worse Europe’s carriers saw average revenue per user decline from 26 euros in 2007 to 20 euros last year, even as data traffic went up.
In the tight climate, Vittorio Colao, chief executive of Vodaphone Group, renewed a call for stakeholders to jointly invest in building next-gen networks. “So far we have not succeeded in getting anyone to do it,” he said in a keynote.
The topic is likely to keep coming up as operators seek ways of sharing the big capital and operational costs of building out next-generation networks, especially as they fan out into small cells in cafes and on lamp posts.
The struggles finding business models for such investments could slow overall deployments, making the ramp of LTE a Long Term Evolution indeed.
Big bucks in small cells?
So far the first generation of LTE nets are all using traditional so-called macro base stations. A second wave of small cells is expected to go in behind them to help keep pace with carriers needs for capacity.
The small cells will help carriers handle an expected 30x increase in mobile data traffic over the next five years, said Ian Miller (below), director of radio networks at Spain’s Telefonica, The carrier deployed about a dozen Alca-Lu small cells around MWC’s giant Fira exhibition center as its first field trial of the technology.
“They work, but prices need to come down from about $2-5,000 euros to less than a thousand euros per small cell,” he said.
Miller may get his wish, because competition will be stiff. Traditional big base station providers and startups who have been mainly selling small so-called femto cells for residential users will converge with a new crop of medium-sized cell designs in 2013. They typically will include 3G, LTE and Wi-Fi and be geared for large businesses and carriers to deploy in building and on lamp posts.
The secret sauce for the so-called pico, micro and metro cells is software that lets carriers easily tie them into their main networks and manage traffic smoothly across all three radios. Standards for such authentication, security and management functions are still being hammered out in the main cellular (3GPP) and Web groups (IETF).
InterDigital showed at MWC an implementation of the so-called IP Flow Mobility technology for handsets and gateways.
On the product front, Ericsson announced at MWC its first pico base station (left), a 128-user device shipping next year that will combine its cellular technology with carrier-grade Wi-Fi from its acquisition of BelAir Networks.
Archrival NSN is planning a 2013 roll out a pico cell (right) using technology it acquired from Motorola that can scale up to meshes of 100 small cells that look to a carrier like one traditional base station.
Alca-Lu claims an advantage. It rolled out its Light Radio small cell concept based on a small cube-shaped antenna module at last year's MWC. Since then it has started work with as many as seven operators co-developing products, a handful of which actually got deployed by Telefonica here in a field trial. However, most observers believe real deployments of small cells won;t start until 2014, giving other players a more even shot at the market.
Among the startups, two companies are said to have the brunt of the femto cell market, One of them, Ubiquisys will start a carrier trial in two months for a new small cell it co-designed with Intel, using a Sandy Bridge processor and Intel Wi-Fi module and 80 Gbyte solid-state drive to handle novel services like Web caching. CTO Will Franks (left) says it fills a hole in giant Ericsson’s product line.
The Intel-based cell could be a break out opportunity for Ubiquisys, letting it sell the potential for differentiating services rather than just a low cost small cell. Indeed, some say the femto cells soured the market for small cells, setting up carrier expectations they were just $100 commodity boxes.
Companies such as Ubiquisys are working hard to add carrier-class management software to the systems, especially for the upcoming models that must manage traffic among 3G, LTE ad Wi-Fi nets. It got a big leg up in the business when NEC and Nokia Siemens Networks agreed to sell the Ubiquisys systems on an OEM basis.
Its close competitor IP.access is putting together a full suite of hardware and software products for carriers and businesses. They span the traveling 3G consumer femto cell shown by Andy Tiller, senior vice president of product strategy and marketing (bottom), to LTE/Wi-Fi access points, gateways and management software.
IP.access got its big break when Cisco purchased its technology to build femto cells for AT&T, in one of the largest carrier deployments of the boxes to date. Now like Ubiquisys and others it is trying to go up market to larger business and carrier cells and more value added software.
The company's gateway's, built by Radisys, current handle up to 20,000 small cells, but next-generation boxes will be expandable to manage up to 180,000 cells. It has a software team to create the complex management code they need that now outnumbers is hardware engineers by 20:1.
Little devices, big traffic
The MWC show was full of devices that will help drive the traffic to drive network growth.
Nvidia and Huawei both showed their latest quad-core application processors driving enough bits to fill big screen high def video displays for movies and low-latency gaming. Huawei rolled out its own smartphones a and tablets (at bottom) using its new K3V2 chip; Nvidia got design wins in smartphones with HTC, Fujitsu, ZTE and others
Mobile payments will be another growth driver, a priority second only to building out LTE nets, said Franco Bernabe, chairman of Telecom Italia. He estimated 1.5 million handsets will use near-field communications to process $50 billion in secure transactions by 2015.
Visa struck a deal at MWC to process secure transactions on Vodaphone’s network, the first of many such tie ups expected over the next few years. Such one-on-one deals are the most sane way of handling all the complexities of how to keep the mobile transactions secure and who gets what slice of the fee for completing them, said a Visa representative.
For example, just in terms of security, some handsets use so-called secure elements on SIM cards, others use microSD cards and some use the Trusted Computing Group's hardware root of trist technique. Visa showed handsets it will support from RIM, LG, Samsung and a third part sleeve for the Apple iPhone 4s.
Meanwhile handset makers from LG to ZTE competed for who had the most LTE capable devices. And of course no wireless show would be complete without a networked vending machine. MWC had at least two, the one (below) from NSN, another at the Visa booth.
New uses for LTE
Among other novel uses for wireless, Ericsson showed a capability to use up to 60 percent of an LTE band to broadcast live television (below). Meanwhile NSN demoed the low latency of LTE with a robot that took like streaming commands over 4G (bottom).
An appetite for business
MWC is clearly a big business. Telecom OEMs such as Ericsson fly carrier execs from around the world to the event, hosting them at its cavernous hospitality hall (left), complete with restaurant and café.
Nokia Siemens Networks and Huawei had similar giant pavillions where food and drink flowed, along with big operator business deals, they hope. Even small players get into the act with booths that double as pubs (below right).
In a sign of the bucks flying around, I casually bumped into a chief engineer from Sri Lanka's main telecom carrier. He was planning to release a $150 million request for proposal for 2,000 3G and LTE base stations after his trip. The contract would effectively double the number of the small country's cell sites.
Much of the buzz among the big telecom OEMs surrounded Chian's Huawei. It's pavilion was crowded until the last day of MWC. Unlike its rivals hospitality suites, Huawei was so oversubscribed, it closed its area to anyone who did not have a prearranged appointment.
A representative of one African carrier I talked to said the company is offering substantially lower prices for its hardware and is generally more flexible and attentive in its support than the traditional European players. In short, the company is hungry. Thus the carrier is about to start a major shift from Ericsson to Huawei, he said.
Meanwhile the so-called “over the top” crowd of mobile Web service providers gave a jeans-and-T-shirts contrast to the black-suited telecom crowd. The rough and tumble Android pavilion with its freebie ice cream sandwiches was the polar opposite of the Ericsson suite.
Dramatic chance encounters
At the end of the day, it was amazing to recall the wide variety of people you could casually encounter at MWC. Some packed quite a punch. Pow!
责编：Quentin
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