日本灾后欲复兴的不仅仅是芯片产业

大约在一年前，EBN与其它媒体报导了有关日本发生强烈地震与海啸的消息。如今，日本福岛核电厂四周仍是一片荒地，但半导体产业并未如原先预期般受到地震冲击与重挫。根据IHS iSuppli公司的观察，日本在半导体产业的主导地位其实早在地震发生前就已经动摇多年了。 不幸的是，日本的半导体厂商在灾后发现了一个众所周知但却从未被公开承认过的问题：日本不再居于半导体组件制造的主导地位了。随着强震引发的种种冲击，日本半导体产业迟来的复苏总算浮出台面成为真正的议题。 但市场研究公司质疑日本芯片产业是否能够反弹。我认为一个更好的问题是，就算让日本半导体制造业回到2011年以前的水平，对于整个产业或日本是否会更好呢？无论是二者的哪一种情况，我的答案都是否定的。 在 2011年以前，全球半导体制造业主要集中于日本。IHS iSuppli公司指出，总部位于日本的供货商在2003年全球半导体营收约占27%。但到了2011年，这一数字已下降到19%，不过日本仍是全球供应链的重要角色──甚至在强震后业界普遍预期将发生短缺现象。不过，推测中的供应链短缺情况并未发生，因为电子产业链中已经累积了过剩的库存。日本一些制造业的停摆，在更有效的库存管理措施因应下，协助避免了一场可能发生的重大短缺现象。 整个业界也开始了解到，将某种产业完全集中在一个地区是相当危险的做法。在这方面，地理区的问题就和经济问题一样重要。像去年发生的日本强震与海啸所造成的灾难规模就足以彻底催毁任何集中于不适当地区的各个产业。这一点我们也可从泰国水灾及其对于硬盘产业的影响看出端倪。 中国在制造业的优势地位最终将为全球经济发出警讯。全球股市涨跌取决于中国经济前景，同时，中国货币的任何波动都会为股市带来震荡。现在，整个世界也开始担心稀土元素(REE)的全球供应以及中国对于矿物控制的议题。 日本的半导体厂房设施只需进行重建更新，就能使电子供应链回到2011年以前的密集情况。日本与电子产业应该投资于重建日本的半导体产业，同时致力于专注在下一代技术发展。根据IHS iSuppli公司： 作为全球主要的半导体制造地区之一，日本目前拥有最少数的几家300毫米先进晶圆厂以及最多座技术成熟的6吋晶圆厂。在日本的厂商十分抗拒关闭先进厂房设施的趋势，宁可选择外包制造或为现有的先进设施重建制造厂房。昔日曾经是世界上最先进的半导体制造业之一，今日的日本半导体制造业务对于世界上其它地区而言已相对较老旧了。 重建日本半导体产业并不是指一对一的交换，或让日本晶圆厂产量回到2011年的水平。进行投资应精心策划并取得平衡。或许半导体产业能够借镜相近的一些技术，如显示器技术。LCD的制造十分类似于半导体。更理想的是，目前世界上还没有太多的OLED 厂。除了半导体晶圆厂以外，日本还拥有芯片制造与测试设备方面的优势。OLED需要使用沉积设备，玻璃、电路以及用于切割、黏合与测试的设备。因此，在此便可发现一个能够跳脱现有显示器产业基础架构的新机会。 根据IHS iSuppli公司，日前出现一个能够减少部份地震损害的提议。该提议呼吁将瑞萨电子(Renesas Electronics)、富士通(Fujitsu Ltd.)和松下(Panasonic Corp.)等公司的制造业业务整并起来。 该计划将设计与制造区分为两种不同类型的公司。此外，该提案还要求提供大量的资金注入，以振兴这些制造厂商。但可惜的是，该计划明显地降低了半导体制造。 这项计划真的能为日本晶圆制造业带来复苏吗？IHS公司认为可能性不高。 当全球主要的芯片制造公司转移到次28nm制造之际，日本正面临国内目前还没有公司有能力采用该先进技术节点进行量产制造的事实。历史告诉诉我们成功是由经验累积而来的。如果没有一个能够取得经验与进展的强大技术平台，日本要能成功实现28nm生产的机会并不大。 我认为日本的未来前景并不至于多么坎坷，除非它想回到2011年的窘况。当日本一次次地向全世界展现它们能够达成所设定的任何目标时，它也超越了从损坏中复苏并瞄准更高目标的层次。这是一个能够重新定义汽车制造业、并成为消费电子产品和芯片制造业主导者的国家。它可以接受无情的破坏，但却不会被击倒。 编译：Susan Hong 本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文：Post-Quake Japan Should Aim Beyond Chips，by Barbara Jorgensen, EBN Community Editor

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{pagination} Post-Quake Japan Should Aim Beyond Chips Barbara Jorgensen, EBN Community Editor About a year ago, EBN and others were reporting about the devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan. The area around the Fukushima nuclear plant remains a wasteland, but the semiconductor industry didn't suffer as badly as expected from the quake. According to IHS iSuppli, Japan's leadership in the semiconductor industry was already under siege years before the earthquake: Unfortunately for Japanese semiconductor companies, the disaster uncovered an issue that had been known but not openly acknowledged: Japan is no longer in a leadership position for the manufacturing of semiconductor components. The long-overdue revitalization of the Japanese semiconductor industry has surfaced as the real issue. The market research firm also questioned whether the Japanese chip industry will ever bounce back. I think a better question is whether returning the country's semiconductor manufacturing industry to pre-2011 levels a good idea for the industry or for Japan? I think the answer is "no" in both instances. Before 2011, the semiconductor manufacturing industry was concentrated heavily in Japan. IHS iSuppli says suppliers headquartered there generated 27 percent of global semiconductor revenue in 2003. By 2011, that figure had dropped to 19 percent, but Japan was still providing a significant portion of the global supply -- to the extent that a shortage was widely anticipated after the quake. That didn't happen, largely because of excess inventory building in the electronics supply chain. Suspension of some manufacturing in Japan, combined with diligent inventory management, helped avert a drastic shortage. As the world is now discovering with China, concentrating an industry in one place is a dangerous practice. This is as much an economic problem as a geographic one. A disaster the size of last year's earthquake and tsunami could wipe out any number of industries if it were centered in the wrong place. We saw this with the flooding in Thailand and the hard disk drive industry. China's domination of the manufacturing industry is finally raising red flags through the global economy. Stocks rise and fall depending on China's economic outlook, and any movement in its currency sends shock waves throughout the financial markets. Now the world is worried about the global supply of REEs and China's control of the minerals. Simply replacing Japan's semiconductor factories could put the electronics supply chain back to where it was before 2011 in terms of concentration. Japan and the electronics industry should invest in rebuilding the country's semiconductor industry, as long as the effort focuses on next-generation technology. According to IHS iSuppli: Of the major global semiconductor manufacturing regions, Japan now has the smallest number of number of advanced 300-millimeter wafer fabs and the largest number of mature 6-inch wafer fabs. Companies in Japan have resisted the trend of closing mature facilities and either outsourcing manufacturing or rebuilding manufacturing facilities to current state-of-the-art facilities. Once one of the world’s most advanced semiconductor producers, Japan’s semiconductor manufacturing operations have become senescent relative to the rest of the world. Rebuilding this industry shouldn't involve a one-for-one swap to bring the country's fab population back to 2011 levels. Investment should be carefully orchestrated and balanced. Perhaps the semiconductor industry can move toward adjacent technologies, such as displays. LCDs are manufactured much like semiconductors. Better yet, there aren't many OLED factories anywhere in the world. In addition to semiconductor fabs, Japan has strength in chip manufacturing and test equipment. OLEDs require deposition equipment (more like inkjet) as well as glass, circuits, and equipment for cutting, sizing, and testing. There's an opportunity here to leapfrog the current display infrastructure -- which, by the way, is heavily concentrated in Taiwan. According to IHS iSuppli, a proposal emerged last month that would undo some of the damage from the earthquake. The plan called for the consolidation of manufacturing operations at Renesas Electronics Corp. (Tokyo: 6723), Fujitsu Ltd. (Tokyo: 6702; London: FUJ; OTC: FJTSY), and Panasonic Corp. (NYSE: PC): The plan separates out design and manufacturing into two separate companies. Furthermore, the proposal calls for a large capital injection to revitalize the manufacturing company. Sadly, the plan is really a well-disguised roadmap for significant reduction in semiconductor manufacturing. Can the plan actually lead to the revitalization of wafer manufacturing in Japan? IHS believes it is highly unlikely. As the leading chip manufacturing companies transition to sub-28-nanometer manufacturing, Japan is facing the fact that it currently has no company capable of volume manufacturing using this advanced technology node. History has shown that success is driven by experience. Without a strong technical platform on which to gain experience and move forward, there is little chance of the country achieving the transition to sub-28-nanometer production. I don't think the outlook for Japan is that dire, unless the country wants to bring itself back to parity with 2011. As it has shown the world again and again, the country can reach any goal it sets. It should reach beyond repairing the damage and aim for something higher. This is the country that redefined automotive manufacturing and became a leader in consumer electronics and chip manufacturing. It's damaged, but it isn't broken.