想知道在今年下半年的市场前景吗？请密切关注截至三月这一季的财报吧！从这一季的财报数字，我们将可看到业界众家厂商在这一年开始时的表现如何。这对于一个仍处于动荡中的市场尤其重要，因为它将为我们对于下半年的前景预期提供一些深入的了解。
如果你是一家OEM，透过这些数字将有助于您确定供应商们如何定价、其相对的财务优势与劣势、产品开发蓝图，以及所处的竞争地位。组件供应商则可以利用第一季财务档案以及各家企业高管的评论，取得有利的信息，为客户进行分级，以及决定分别为不同的合作伙伴提供什么样的资源。
市场不断地变动，相信我们都必须以更深入的眼光来了解市况。然而，普遍的市场环境并不太容易解读。例如当单一家公司─苹果公司(Apple)─拥有超过 2/3的平板计算机市占率时，你该怎么解读这个市场呢？对于苹果公司的供应商来说，这种市场优势可能是十分美好的，但对于为Asus、Dell、Motorola Mobility、Nokia与Samsung等竞相争夺剩余一小部份平板市场的公司提供产品的供应商而言，这样的市场却为他们带来了挑战。
你可能了解自家公司在第一季的表现如何，但在这个交错纵横的产业中，更重要的是看清整个市场大局。为了掌握这个产业的未来前景，我认为在厂商发布这一季财报时，有五项值得我们关注的关键领域信息不容错过：
去年同期的销售成长
对于许多公司来说，去年第四季的成长表现不如预期。原本市场预期2011年第四季将出现强劲成长，这一进展还将延续到2012年第一季。然而，2011年第四季的结果令人失望，因而在第一季的销售有多畅旺就不得而知了。有些公司幸运地取得了 iPad 与 iPhone 的订单，因而实现丰硕的销售数字，而其它厂商则只有些微的进展。如果整个业界的销售成长分布不均，那么这将是个值得关注的议题。然而，根据资料来源得知，半导体市场的多家公司将在这一季交出强劲成长的财报。
利润
高科技市场仍然是一个非常高利润取向的领域。组件商用化与价格减损正逐步侵蚀企业利润。到目前为止，定价已经不是问题了，因为供需情况一直很稳定，甚至逐渐走向均衡状态。组件供应商在价格压力上首当其冲。甚至连2011年3月日本强震和年底泰国水灾为供应商带来了重大的价格变化。
如果利润率维持稳定，产业很可能在下半年维持一个理性平衡的情况。OEM现在正掌握着产品的定价，但任何的天灾或需求的急剧上升都可能为他们带来冲击与压力。
本文下一页：现金与库存
本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载
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库存水位
我喜欢观察库存水位，你也应该关注这一点。它不但说明了过去，也暗示着未来。如果库存水位低而需求激活，厂商可以预期提高制造产量，而库存水位高则抑制生产。然而，有些公司故意在产品导入前先行累积库存。看看苹果公司在新一代iPad亮相前一季(截止于12月31日)，库存飙升至12亿美元。今年第一季 (3月)的库存水平应该较低些。
对于供应库存基础，三月底的库存增加可能表示销售减缓。我们还应该密切关注组件通路商的库存。这些厂商(尤其是业界主要厂商)具有广泛的组件管理经验，同时其调整库存增加或减少的趋势有助于供应商了解实际的需求环境。
个别公司财报变化
在高科技领域，赢家通常只有少数几家，而表现持平的厂商数量则不断地增加。有些公司可望在第一季交出漂亮的财报，其它厂商则持续处于勉强存活的动荡模式。这些信息是很重要的，因为它意味着分析师与业界观察家们无法根据业界主导厂商或其它公司的表现进行长期的趋势预测。当你仔细观察某家公司的财报时，记住它并不能代表整个业界的发展趋势。
现金供应
现金仍然是王道，但越来越多吗？电子产业现金充裕的情况已经持续很长一段时间了。对于全球经济局势以及贷款条件严格的关切，使得高科技公司和其它许多产业都致力于建立起堆积如山的现金。这也反映出一种谨慎支出的态势──资本支出计划受到严格的限制。然而，如果现金累积未能像最近这几年这样地迅速增加(苹果的经验除外），那么这如果不是因为需求趋于下滑，就是厂商们终于开始支出投资于预期能增加销售的更多计划中。虽然要确定究竟是哪一种情形可能不容易，但并非不可能。
我最后的建议是：也不要过度斟酌于第一季的财报数字。资产负债表上的销售与获利数字并不像表面上看来这么重要。相形之下，拥有丰厚的现金流、平均库存以及有限借贷比起巨大的销售数字更重要。同时，管理阶层对于当前以及即将到来的一季发表信心喊话以及评论，也比刚结束的上一季表现更重要。在赛车时只看后照镜，往往无法取得最后胜利。无论在你后面的是什么，有什么可担心的呢？
编译：Susan Hong
本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载
参考英文原文：5 Areas to Watch in Q1 Results，by Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief
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• 2011年Q4 DOI上升8%，但已显露乐观迹象
• ST-Ericsson如若卖 身还债，中国人民欢迎你!
• 欧债危机会对科技产业产生什么影响？ylUesmc
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5 Areas to Watch in Q1 Results
Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief
Want to know what's ahead for the rest of the year? Stay alert for the March quarter results. They will tell us how the various industry players performed at the beginning of the year. More significantly for a market still in turmoil, they will provide some insights into what we can expect for the second half of the year.
If you are an OEM, the numbers will help you determine how your suppliers are faring, their relative financial strengths and weaknesses, a product roadmap, and the competitive position. Component suppliers can use information from first-quarter financial filings and comments by corporate bosses to rate customers and determine what level of resources to devote to individual partners.
The market is in flux, and I believe we can all use deeper insights into market conditions. However, the general environment isn't quite that easy to read. How do you rate the tablet market, where a single company -- Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) -- has a marketshare of more than two-thirds? This domainance may be perfect for Apple suppliers, but it presents a bit of a conundrum for those supplying products to the likes of Asus, Dell, Motorola Mobility, Nokia, and Samsung, all of which are jostling for crumbs.
You may know how your company performed in the first quarter, but the big picture is even more important in such an interwoven market. To understand what lies ahead for the industry, I would be looking for information in five critical areas as companies announce their results:
1. Sales growth from a year earlier. For many companies, this growth (as opposed to growth from the previous quarter) wasn't that great in the December quarter. Expectations were for strong growth in the final quarter of 2011 and continued improvement in the first quarter of 2012. The fourth-quarter results disappointed, and it's not clear how robust sales were in the first quarter. Some companies lucky to get their products designed into iPads and iPhones are experiencing gangbuster sales. Others will report piddling improvements. If there's sales growth happening, it's not spread evenly across the industry, and that is a concern. However, sources tell me some companies in the semiconductor market will report strong sales.
2. Margins. The high-tech market is still a very highly margin-sensitive sector. Component commoditization and price erosion are nibbling away steadily at corporate profits. So far, pricing hasn't been a problem, because the demand-supply situation has been very steady and has even moved more toward a state of equilibrium. Component suppliers are taking the brunt of most price pressures. Not even the March 2011 earthquake in Japan and the flooding in Thailand late in the year shifted pricing in any significant manner toward suppliers.
If margins remain steady, the industry is most likely to be in a reasonably balanced condition for the second half of the year. OEMs are in the driver's seat for now in pricing, but any other natural disaster or a sharp upswing in demand could swing the pendulum away from them.
3. Inventories. I love watching the inventory ticker, and so should you. It speaks to the past but foretells the future. If inventory levels are low and demand is kicking in, companies can be expected to ramp up manufacturing. A rise in stocks could tamp down production. However, some companies purposely build inventory ahead of a product introduction. Apple's inventory shot up in the quarter that ended Dec. 31 to $1.2 billion ahead of the debut of the new iPad. Its inventory should be lower for the March quarter.
For the supply base, a rise in inventory at the end of March probably indicates slowing sales. We should also pay close attention to inventories at component distributors. These companies, especially the industry leaders, have extensive parts management expertise, and the direction of their inventory (up or down) can help suppliers understand the demand environment.
4. Variance in individual company results. There's Apple, and then there are all the others. In the high-tech sector, the group of winners is very small, and the number of average performers has been growing. Some companies will post great first-quarter results. Others will continue to trundle along in barely-surviving mode. This is important, because it means analysts and industry observers cannot make any long-term generalizations based on the performance of leaders or any other group. As you contemplate the results of a particular company, remember that it most likely isn't representative of the industry.
5. Cash supply. Cash is still king, but is it growing? The electronics industry has been awash in cash for quite a while. Concerns about the global economy and tight lending conditions have driven high-tech companies and many others to build up a mountain of cash. This also reflects a cautionary attitude toward spending -- capital expenditure projects have been severely constrained. However, if the cash heap isn't growing as quickly as it has been these last few years (ignore Apple's experience, which is an anomaly), then either demand is trending down, or companies are at last beginning to spend more on projects they expect to increase sales. Determining exactly what's going on could be tricky but not impossible.
My final suggestion: Don't obsess over the first-quarter results. The sales and profit numbers aren't as important as what is on the balance sheet. A boatload of cash, average inventory, and limited debts are more important than gangbuster sales. What executives have to say about the current and upcoming quarters is also more significant than their relative position in the quarter that just ended. You don't win a race by looking only in the rearview mirror. Whatever's there is already behind you. Why worry about it?
责编：Quentin
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