身为一家年营收达430亿美元的全球公司总裁兼CEO，John Chambers经常与其它高科技业界主管们共同谈论并交换意见，期望更能掌握全球经济环境动向及其对于公司业务发展的潜在冲击。
而今，对于最近从同事、业务往来的客户及其竞争对手所听到的产业发展，思科公司总裁John Chambers感到并不十分乐观。对于投资人、客户、政府官员以及任何可能对他的意见感兴趣的人，Chamber总是直言不讳地说出他的想法。
然而，就在思科发布最新一期的财报数字后，John Chambers直率的谈话却对思科的股市表现造成重大影响。尽管思科公司在周三还宣布业绩成长强劲，但该公司的股价在周四早盘交易中已下跌了约9%。
很显然地，Chamber的话让投资人们感到印象深刻，但他们对于思科上季净收入成长20%或年营收成长7%的表现并不满意。股东们更关切的是该公司的经济 前景疲软──因为，这不但反映出思科及其它高科技公司能为投资人带来什么样的期待，同时也可看出这对于全球经济的其它产业领域又意味着什么。
在思科与分析师的电话会议中，从Chambers的评论就可看出为何市场已变得如此紧张。思科公司CEO说他和其它高科技业界主管们都十分担心欧州的情况、全球经济情势持续不确定性、公共支出削减，以及企业不愿投资基础设施及其它资本计划等问题。Chambers进一步表示：
“我们仍处于全球经济的不确定环境中，我们不断看到过去几季来我们所讨论的一些关注领域受到冲击。我们看到销售周期变得越来越长，同时也出现更多较小规模的交易。从一个CEO的观点来看，目前我们面对的正是一个更加更谨慎投资以及不确定的环境。”
“当我和业界其它主管们谈论时──对于我们从全球企业客户所了解到的一切，大家几乎都抱持着同样的看法。但我们并不认为事情会变得更糟糕，而是相信一切正在稳定的改善中，因而对于环境的不确定性抱持谨慎和观察环境变化的想法。我们真正担心的是看到一种趋势出现──当它可能成为一个更大问题的征兆时。”
“我觉得现在应该将它归类为不确定性，同时应该更加关注在全球经济与欧洲较确定的部份，其次是关注可对其业务造成重大影响的政府政策。因此，我认为以不确定性来表达是一种较理想的方式。我们当然不喜欢目前企业IT支出的这种趋势。”
Chambers先前就曾提出他的疑虑。他指出许多高科技社群都十分关注欧洲动向，也提到在公共部门开支的削减、谨慎IT投资等问题。 “正如我们预期的，每一个问题都已成为一项挑战，其中还有几个问题──包括欧洲与客户保守主义──变得更严重了！”他说。
如果这些问题只影响到思科一家公司，或者能被迅速解决，那么还不算太严重。但事实情况并非如此。事实上，席卷整个希腊、爱尔兰、意大利、葡萄牙与西班牙的欧洲金融风暴使企业对于支出谨慎保守的情况更严重。由于希腊目前仍努力地建立新政府，欧元单一货币区也汲汲可危，这让更多企业将会担心对其营运业务带来滚雪球效应，因此更加地削减资本支出。
到目前为止，这一切对于消费电子产业的影响可说是微乎其微。我希望，在非欧元区国家以及在一些较稳定的欧洲国家中的消费者无需过度解读希腊的事件。毕竟，欧盟无法解决希腊漂浮不定的政治问题当然会让大家更加关注于其间的权力之争，而忽略在思科的问题。
编译：Susan Hong
本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载
参考英文原文：Cisco: Global Uncertainty Worries High-Tech，by Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief
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Cisco: Global Uncertainty Worries High-Tech
Bolaji Ojo
As chairman and CEO of a $43 billion global company, John Chambers talks regularly with other high-tech executives to gain a better view of the world economic environment and the potential impact of it on their businesses.
Right now, the top boss at Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) doesn't very much like what he is hearing from colleagues, business customers, and rivals. Chambers is also not hesitant to speak his mind about this to investors, customers, government officials, and anyone else who might be interested in his opinion.
The CEO's blunt talk, however, is contributing to the pounding Cisco is taking on the equity market one day after announcing its latest quarter results. Today, Cisco's shares have fallen about 9 percent in early trading, despite the strong results announced by the company on Wednesday.
Investors, it appears, were impressed but not satisfied with either the 20 percent increase in Cisco's net income for the fiscal third quarter ended April 28, or the 7 percent jump in revenue from the comparable year-ago period. Shareholders were more focused on the company's weak financial outlook, itself a reflection both of what they can expect from Cisco and other high-tech companies, as well as what this means for other segments of the global economy.
A review of Chambers's comments during the company's conference call with analysts demonstrates why the market became nervous. The Cisco CEO said he and other high-tech executives are concerned about conditions in Europe, persistent uncertainty in global economic conditions, cutbacks in public spending, and the reluctance of enterprises to write big checks for infrastructure and other capital projects. Chambers further said:
We are still in an uncertain environment economically and in global perspective. We continue to see the impact of the areas of concern we have discussed for the last few quarters. We are seeing larger -- longer sales cycles, more sign-off and smaller deal size. Again, this is in terms of a more cautious environment and uncertainty from a CEO perspective.
When I talk to my peers in the industry -- make no mistake, I've been doing that; we can almost finish each other's sentences on what we're seeing around the globe from the enterprise customers. Again, not a view that things are turning down, but just very steady improvement and an uncertain and cautious wait-and-see type of environment from that perspective. We do worry when you see a trend occurring that it can be an indication of a bigger issue.
I think right now I'd classify it as uncertainty and looking to see more certainty on the global economy and in Europe and secondly, more certainty in terms of government policies that can have major impacts on their business. So it's a nice way of saying that we're not sure. We sure don't like the trend in the enterprise IT spending.
Chambers had documented his concerns previously. He identified Europe as a nagging concern for many in the high-tech community but also mentioned the cuts in public sector spending, "conservative IT" spending, and undefined issues with India. "Each of these has proven to be a challenge as we anticipated, and several -- Europe and customer conservatism -- have gotten worse," he said.
If only Cisco alone was being affected by these problems or that they were being quickly resolved. That's not the case. In fact, the fiscal mess in Europe that has engulfed Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain has fueled the spending conservatism at the enterprise level referenced by Chambers. With Greece still struggling to set up a new government and now on the brink of crashing out of the euro currency zone, more businesses will worry about the snowballing effects on their operations and cut back on capital expenses.
So far, the impact of all this on the consumer electronics sector has been minimal. I expect consumers in non-euro countries and even in a few stable euro countries to stay detached from events in Greece. But the failure of the European Union to end the image of a continent adrift is certainly a cause for concern in more corner offices than just those at Cisco.
责编：Quentin
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