苹果iTV能否再续“I系”辉煌？

除了少数的几次例外，苹果公司(Apple Inc.)的产品开发策略一向是“只要开发好了，顾客就自然来。”(If we build it, they will come.)最近的例子就是新 iPad ，它又再次让苹果粉丝不惜彻夜在零售店外大排长笼等待新品开卖。我们对于这样的场景已经司空见惯了，三星(Samsung)在其宣传广告中还将情节改成苹果粉丝放弃排队，转而投入其 Galaxy Note 的怀抱，媒体甚至也将粉丝彻夜排队当成一个新闻事件来报导。 而今，苹果公司最大的制造伙伴──富士康电子公司(Foxconn Electronics Inc.)透露苹果很快土将会推出 Apple TV 的消息。这件事的发生一点也不令人意外，看看富士康最近入股夏普电子(Sharp Electronics)的显示器业务，就是针对 Apple TV而来。真正令人惊讶的是像富士康总裁郭台铭这样一位经验丰富的高阶主管，竟会公开发布客户的产品策略？关于这一点我们下次再另辟文讨论。 苹果公司至今在电视业务方面的产品一直是可让用户接取至网络的机顶盒(STB)。苹果实际上拥有着进军电视业务的一切资源，包括专利的显示器技术。为什么苹果迟迟未能展开行动？大概是由于该公司已故CEO乔布斯一直想要开发出一款更友善用户且能与其它家用设备同步的电视机吧！在乔布斯去世以前不久，他曾经告诉传记作家Walter Issacson，他已经破解整合电视的密码了。 根据以往的经验，无论外在市况如何，很少影响 到苹果公司的产品发展策略。随着发展逐渐趋于饱和，电视市场持续处于低迷已经有一段时间了。液晶显示器(LCD)屏幕的价格持续下滑、大尺寸面板制造技术障碍突破，而 HDTV 的价格也达到了“经济实惠”的范围了。而就算想用 3D 等新兴技术应用来重新激活电视市场，它也还未发展到能取得什么动力的程度。 HDTV技术和产品组合都已经达到十分先进的技术水准了，用户对于目前所拥有的也已经十分满意了。 那么苹果电视必须具备什么特点才能吸引消费者愿意花钱再多买一台电视呢？根据一些媒体报导，苹果公司将会整合其 SIRI 语音辨识系统于其 iTV 电视产品上。 iCloud 功能也将进一步进行功能升级，使其得以更轻松地在跨多平台之间进行内容下载，而且也更便宜。有的媒体还指出苹果电视将内建一部摄影机以及可连接到App Store。 毫无疑问地， iTV的价格一定不便宜。 iPad 平板电脑和 iPhone 手机都是消费电子产业中最昂贵的项目，尽管苹果上一代产品折价但幅度也不大。而今全球经济仍未见好转，至少在欧洲以及亚太区一些地方仍持续低迷。如果真的如同媒体预期，苹果公司在今年推出 iTV 的话，所谓的“苹果效应”(Apple)这次可能会像“铁达尼号”(Titantic)一样沉沦。但如果如另一派的预测，苹果等到2014年才推出电视产品，那么 iTV 可望改写电视市场生态，为电视产业建立新标准。 你觉得呢？对我来说，如果SIRI能够取代电视遥控器的话，我很乐意试试新的iTV。 编译：Susan Hong 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文：iTV: Field of Dreams or Titanic?，by Barbara Jorgensen, EBN Community Editor

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{pagination} iTV: Field of Dreams or Titanic? Barbara Jorgensen With only a few exceptions (remember the Lisa?), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL)'s product development strategy has been "If we build it, they will come." The most recent example is the new iPad, which had iFans once again camping out in front of Apple retail stores. The scene has become so familiar that Samsung Corp. spoofs it in a commercial for its Galaxy Note, and the media covers the queuing up as a news event. Now, Apple's largest manufacturing partner, Foxconn Electronics Inc. , has let it slip that Apple will soon be building an Apple TV. It's no surprise that this is happening: Foxconn's recent investment in Sharp Electronics Corp. 's display business had "Apple TV" written all over it. What is surprising is a seasoned executive such as Foxconn chief Terry Gou letting a customer's product strategy slip, but that's a discussion for another day. Apple's offering in the TV business to date has been a sort of set-top box that allows users to access the Internet. Apple has all the necessary resources to get into the TV business, including a patented display technology. Why Apple hasn't made that move yet is supposedly due to former CEO Steve Jobs's desire to develop a user-friendly TV set that syncs with other household devices. Shortly before his death last year, Jobs told biographer Walter Issacson that he had "cracked the code" to integrated TV. Experience has taught prognosticators that external market conditions have very little to do with Apple's product-development strategy. The TV market has been in the doldrums for awhile, due in large part to market saturation. LCD screen prices have steadily dropped; large-screen manufacturing barriers have been breached; and HDTV prices have hit the "very affordable" range. Efforts to reboot the TV market with offerings such as 3D haven't gained traction. HDTV technology and product offerings have reached the point where incremental improvements are not enough: Users are pretty happy with what they have. So what is it going to take to get consumers to buy yet another TV? Reports from CNET and other outlets have suggested that Apple will integrate the SIRI voice recognition system on its TVs. The cloud has also enabled a level of functionality not available before, so downloading content across multiple devices is easier and less expensive. Other suggestions include a built-in camera and access to the App store. The downside is that the iTV will no doubt carry a premium pricetag. iPads and iPhones are among the most-expensive items in the consumer electronics industry, and Apple's discounts on last-generation products aren't what you'd call "steep." Rumors that the global economy is turning around seem exaggerated, at least for Europe and some regions in Asia/Pacific. If Apple releases the iTV this year, as some suggest, the "Apple Effect" could go the way of the Titanic. If Apple waits until 2014, another rumored target date, the iTV could re-set the standard for television. What do you think? For my part, if SIRI can replace remote controls, I'm willing to test drive the iTV.