上一波裁员风波过去没多久，近日，风口浪尖的诺基亚又做出了一系列艰难的决定：全球手机部门将裁员五分之一（约一万人），并解除三名高管的职务（分别为首席营销官Jerri DeVard、手机部门负责人Mary McDowell、市场部负责人Niklas Savander）。
但投资者似乎并不认为此举能够咸鱼翻身，纷纷迅速抛售该公司股票，导致其市值在盘中缩水16%以上。
在公司陷入危机之际，诺基亚首席执行官艾洛普（Elop）可能原想通过此举显示自己具备果断的领导能力。但今天的声明并没有澄清公司的未来前景， 也没有证明公司将有能力转危为安。对于此次裁员和高管调整，业内不少人士认为为何不是Elop引咎辞职，而是把责任推给其他高管或者员工？
Elop自2010年出任诺基亚CEO之后，没有给诺基亚带来任何好转的迹象，特别是产品方面，目前的战略是失败的。最新的数据显示，诺基亚手机第一季度总的出货量下降了24%，三星手机的销量也顺势将其超越，诺基亚长达14年的手机市场霸主地位就此宣告终结。
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投资者以前见过其它公司采取这样的重组措施，知道这会把诺基亚引向何方。尽管Lumia手机在市场上取得一定的成功，但到本年度结束时，诺基亚的营业收入和股票市值都将大幅缩小，前途将更加未卜。
之所以做出这种消极的评估，是因为有一些令人沮丧的前车之鉴。诺基亚目前所采取的种种行动，与其它企业曾经的做法异常相似。这些企业也曾经在各自的市场领域占据统治地位，最后缓慢走向式微。
为了对抗苹果以及其他使用Android系统的手机厂商，诺基亚甚至不惜放弃Symbian而选择携手微软，不遗余力推出的Lumia智能手机，但是Lumia第一季度全球出货量仅为220万台，比起苹果iPhone的3510万台还是逊色了不少。同时，诺基亚已经连续四个季度净利润出现亏损，而股价更是大幅下滑。6月15日，诺基亚股价大跌18%，创造了历史新低，也使得诺基亚的市值第一次跌破100亿美元大关，要知道诺基亚鼎盛时期的市值可是高达3000亿欧元，不得不感慨一下，诺基亚“堕落”的速度实在有点惊人！
虽然诺基亚不太可能消失在科技产业历史的垃圾堆中，但Elop迄今采取的裁员、调整管理层以及其它战略举措，让我想起Palm、摩托罗拉、北电网络、朗讯等诸多辉煌一时的科技巨头的类似行动，他们都错误解读了市场，最终被打入冷宫。黑莓手机生产商Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM)处境差不多，迄今为止的重组行动没并有取得预期效果。
本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：最担心的是诺基亚的供应商们
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据悉，此次裁员，诺基亚计划在2013年年底前节约16亿欧元的生产成本，不过重组费用就将耗费10亿欧元左右，如此看来，诺基亚很可能会竹篮打水一场空，白忙一场。
Lumia手机系列原本被诺基亚看做翻身之作，目前看来并未达到预期的效果。如果业绩继续恶化，Elop除了只会裁员之外，最后的绝招估计就只剩把诺基亚卖了，而微软则是大家都“认可”的买家。不过还存在一种可能，Elop被诺基亚董事会扫地出门，随后出现一位像乔布斯一样的人物，将诺基亚从水深火热中拯救出来。
如果这种论断听起来显得刺耳，那么请回顾一下诺基亚的销售变化轨迹，并更仔细地观察其它一些更重要的因素，比如为什么诺基亚成为今天这个样子、对手是什么情况、市场中的重大变化、诺基亚的主要对手(苹果，三星和HTC)、如何才能恢复竞争力。
另外，考虑以下事实，诺基亚现在裁员和重组业务(这是为了生存而采取的必要行动)，也会打击员工士气，并向代工厂商和供应商以及其它第三方辅助公司发出关于其前途的混乱信号。而诺基亚的未来成长离不开这些公司的支持。
例如，诺基亚在通讯IC市场中的供应商还记得，当摩托罗拉每况愈下的时候，他们的盈利水平和长期生存能力受到严重威胁。他们现在明白，必须抛弃诺基亚，转而向其竞争对手提供运营与产品支持。随着诺基亚摇摇欲坠，它生存所需的生态系统正面临压力并急于寻找退路。
这意味着，关键的内部工程师将投奔诺基亚的竞争对手，而为诺基亚Lumia等其它未来产品开发应用的软件公司，也将倒戈，改向诺基亚竞争对手提供更多的资源，然后才会考虑诺基亚的需求。供应链中的公司已经开始感受到这种诺基亚效应。例如，DSP芯片厂商Ceva Inc.最近下调了2012年营业收入与利润目标，原因是“关键客户诺基亚的销售情况弱于预期”。现在许多供应商感觉，可能被诺基亚这个即将倒下的巨人砸死。
本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：最该裁的是诺基亚的CEO！
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可以这样设想：诺基亚已经在“吃老本”，不论裁减多少人和如何重组管理层，也不会向市场发出更利好的信息。今天的声明无非证实了：诺基亚的烧钱速度快于挣钱速度。诺基亚在新闻稿中表示，预计“2012年第二季度基于非国际财务报告准则(non-IFRS)的设备与服务营业利润率将低于2012年第一季度的负3.0%。原来的预期是接近或低于2012年第一季度的负3.0%”。
同时，“诺基亚预期产业竞争情况将在2012年第三季度继续对设备与服务业务造成负面影响”。它还应该加上一句：年内情况不会有太大改善。在诺基亚今天发表声明以前，分析师已经把2012年诺基亚营业收入预估调降到了492亿美元(390亿欧元)左右。如果他们的预测是正确的(我认为实际营业收入将会更低)，营业收入将与2011年持平，低于2011年的420亿欧元，而2008年高达507亿欧元。
裁员将降低诺基亚的盈亏平衡目标，并减轻其资产负债表所面临的压力。目前保存现金正在成为nokia的优先目标。裁员难以根治真正折磨诺基亚的病根，其症结在于无力追赶苹果和三星的步伐，而且不明智地决定突然中断基于塞班操作系统的产品，转而采用Windows OS。此举让诺基亚立即陷入困境，为此应该裁掉首席执行官艾洛普才对。
Elop除了只会裁员之外，最后的绝招估计就只剩把诺基亚卖了
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编译：Luffy Liu
本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：参考英文原文：Nokia job cuts don't and won't impress anyone,by Bolaji Ojo
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• Q2三星智能手机出货将领先苹果千万支I7Xesmc
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Nokia job cuts don't and won't impress anyone
Bolaji Ojo
The announcement earlier today by Nokia Corp. that it will eliminate one of every five jobs in its mobile handset division and remove three senior executives didn't impress investors who promptly dumped the stock, driving down the company's market value by more than 15 percent in intraday trading.
CEO Stephen Elop might have meant to signal resolute leadership in the midst of an ongoing crisis at the wireless handset vendor but nothing in today's announcement adds clarity to what the future holds for the company or confirm it will be able to right the sinking ship. Investors have seen reorganization actions like these before at other endangered companies and they know where it's leading Nokia. By the end of the current year, Nokia will be a much smaller company on a revenue and stock valuation basis and its future will be even more in doubt notwithstanding the modest success its Lumia phone has recorded in the market.
There's some disheartening history behind this tough assessment. The actions instituted by Nokia are eerily similar to steps taken by other enterprises that slowly diminished in importance after once-dominating their market sectors. While it is unlikely Nokia would disappear into technology's historical bin, the job cuts, management changes and other strategic initiatives implemented so far by Elop reminds me of similar actions taken by Palm Inc., Motorola Inc., Nortel Networks, Lucent Technologies and many other former tech giants that misread their markets and tumbled into oblivion. Blackberry maker {complink 4644|Research In Motion Ltd. (RIM)} is in a similar funk and its reorganization efforts so far have not paid off as expected.
If this assessment appears harsh, follow the trajectory of Nokia's sales but look more closely at other more important factors, including why the company is where it is today, what is happening at rivals, the monumental changes occurring in its market, the rivals it faces (Apple, Samsung, HTC) and what could make it competitive again. Also, consider the fact that while Nokia is cutting jobs and reorganizing operations (necessary actions if it is to survive) it is also demoralizing employees, sending mixed signals about its future to contractors and suppliers as well as other third-party support companies it requires for future growth.
By now, Nokia suppliers in the communications IC market, for instance, who recall how their profitability and long-term viability were horribly threatened as companies like Motorola declined know by now they've got to pull up the stakes and throw operational and product support behind rivals. As Nokia totters, the eco-system it needs to survive is feeling the heat and rushing for the exit. This means critical internal engineering employees will be firing off resumes to Nokia rivals while application developers the company needs to support the role out of services for the Lumia and other devices in the pipeline will devote more resources first to rivals before considering the wounded company. The Nokia-effect is already being felt at companies in its extended supply chain. DSP chip vendor Ceva Inc., for instance, recently slashed its 2012 sales and profits estimate "due to weaker-than-expected sales at key customer Nokia." What many suppliers see now is the possibility of getting crushed under the tottering giant.
Consider this: Nokia is a fast fading shadow of its former self and no amount of employee retrenchment and management reshuffling will send the market a different message. What today's announcement confirmed is clearly that the company is burning more money than it is making. Nokia said in a press statement it expects the "non-IFRS Devices & Services operating margin in the second quarter 2012 to be below the first quarter 2012 level of negative 3.0%. This compares to the previous outlook of similar to or below the first quarter level of negative 3.0%"
By the way, "Nokia expects competitive industry dynamics to continue to negatively impact Devices & Services in the third quarter of 2012," the company said. It should have added that the situation won't improve that much for the rest of the year. Prior to today's announcement, analysts had reduced their 2012 revenue estimate for Nokia to about $49.2 billion (39 billion euro). If their prediction turns out correct (I think sales will be even lower) that would be flat from 2011, down from 42 billion euro in 2011 and as high as 50.7 billion euro in 2008.
The job cuts will reduce the break-even revenue target for Nokia and relieve pressure on the balance sheet at a time cash conservation is becoming a major priority. They won't cure what really ails Nokia and that is its inability to catch up with Apple and Samsung combined with the unwise decision to abruptly terminate Symbian operating system-based products in favor of Windows OS. The move stopped Nokia cold and for that CEO Elop himself deserves the axe.
责编：Quentin
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