诺基亚大降价中，微软要不要趁机买入？

随着微软公司(Microsoft Corp.)持续致力于推动Windows操作系统，近来在市场上开始出现一阵阵微软可能推出自有平板电脑和智能手机的猜测声浪。 但我并不确定这些传闻是否属实，甚至对于该公司是否可能收购诺基亚(Nokia Corp.)也不得而知－对于微软公司而言，诺基亚可说是一家无线通讯设备领域的麻烦伙伴。事实上，如果微软想要率先突破并使Windows OS更具竞争力，我真的觉得应该要把诺基亚直接纳入麾下。 微软公司并不是硬件业务领域的新手，而且比起惠普(Hewlett-Packard；HP)和Research in Motion(RIM)等冒然投入平板市场而遭受重大挫折的许多公司而言，微软或许还更充分地做好了准备。 虽然微软主要是一家软件公司以及PC操作系统市场的主要竞争者，除了销售键盘、鼠标和品牌耳机等其它硬件以外，该公司也以Xbox建立自家公司成为游戏市场的主要厂商。该公司为Xbox打造广泛的供应链网络，以便能轻易地利用于支持该公司可能在未来所引进的其它设备。 有几个理由让我怀疑微软可能没得选择，只得伴随自家产品冒然地一头栽进通讯设备市场中。随着昔日的合作伙伴转变为竞争对手，新的联盟与支持系统在快速进演进的市场中稳步前进，传统的OEM样貌正迅速发生改变中。 在电子制造服务(EMS)供货商所具有的专业技术，加上从像ARM这一类公司提供的现成IP以及从无晶圆厂芯片制造商的产品，再得到像台积电这样的半导体晶圆代工厂的支持，使得像Amazon、Barnes & Noble和Walmart等公司很容易就远远跳脱出其原有的传统市场之外，进而拥抱更多硬件产品。即使是被形容为一般OEM的公司也正扩展其产品组合， 以因应持续变化的客户需求。 例如，像Google一样的公司们已经改变了我们对于服务供货商的要求。例如，Google收购摩托罗拉行动公司(Motorola Mobility Inc.)的事件仍回荡在无线设备市场，而其导入 Android 操作系统由于有利于三星电子(Samsung Electronics)，导致了诺基亚的市场主导地位被取代。虽然Google的搜寻引擎十分受欢迎，但由于收购了摩托罗拉行动公司，目前Google 在本质上已经是一家硬件公司，不过也一直有一些市场预测Google公司本身可能已经准备好制造并销售自有的智能手机。 如果你认为这种想法看来很奇怪(因为Google已经拥有一家智能手机厂商了)，先听看看这一点：根据纽约时报(New York Times)的报导，即使是Facebook也可能打算进军智能手机业务。为什么Facebook要涉足硬件业务？因为有越来越多的用户透过行动设备浏览该公司的服务，而不再是经由一般的计算机了，使得这家社群媒体巨擘越来越难追踪用户的上网行为以及销售广告。 即使是苹果公司 (Apple Inc.)也曾经是一家纯粹的PC厂商，如今却改变了几个与 iPhone 、 iPad 和 iPod相邻的市场动态。事实上，今天的苹果公司更像是一家消费电子公司，而非PC供货商。但即使这样的描述也是不断变动的，因为苹果正寻求扩展在其它终端市场的影响力。 无线手持设备和运算设备市场明显地正快速成长，而厂商的产品组合与样貌改变，则显示在此领域的企业们将不断重新定义其所认同的核心业务。 对于微软来说，作为一家纯软件公司的日子已经一去不复返了。今天，它已经被迫得混合硬件与软件，才能保持竞争力。与诺基亚针对智能手机市场的结盟，为它带来一个能够让移动设备开始采用Windows操作系统的好机会，只不过至今的市场反应冷淡。因此，一款微软品牌的平板PC或智能手机可望颠覆游戏规则，让微软变得比苹果OS或 Android都更具有竞争力。 微软所能做的选择之一是直接收购诺基亚。微软拥有足以支持这一行动的资金(最近一季约有600亿美元现金与短期投资)与市场价值，加上所要进行收购的目标现在又处于负伤累累的求生模式下。诺基亚公司和微软公司的市值分别是100亿美元和2,500亿美元。微软将会采取收购诺基亚的行动吗？我对此感到怀疑，但却不感到意外。 本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载 编译：Susan Hong 本文下一页：参考英文原文：Should Microsoft Buy Nokia or Make Its Own Smartphone?，by Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief

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{pagination} Should Microsoft Buy Nokia or Make Its Own Smartphone? Bolaji Ojo Speculations have gripped the market in recent days that Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) may begin making its own tablet PC and smartphone as it continues efforts to propagate the Windows operating system. I wouldn't bet against either this or even the possibility the company may purchase Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK), its troubled partner in the wireless communications equipment market. In fact, if Microsoft wants to take the lead in being disruptive and making Windows OS competitive, I believe it should bring Nokia firmly under its wings. Microsoft won't be new to the hardware business and is probably better prepared to extend its brand into newer areas than many of the companies that have ventured into tablet PCs and suffered significant setbacks, including Hewlett-Packard and Research in Motion. Although primarily a software company and the dominant competitor in the PC operating system segment, Microsoft has also established itself as a major player in the gaming market with the Xbox, in addition to selling other hardware, including keyboard, mouse, and branded headphones. The extensive supply chain network the company has built for the Xbox can easily be leveraged to support other equipment the company may want to introduce in future. Click here for a list of Microsoft products. I suspect for several reasons Microsoft may have no options but to dive headlong into the communications equipment market with its own products and rather than through surrogates as it has so far done. The profile of the traditional OEM is changing rapidly with former partners morphing into rivals and new alliances and support systems being constantly forged in the rapidly evolving market. The expertise available at electronic manufacturing services (EMS) providers, coupled with off-the-shelf IP from companies like ARM Ltd. (Nasdaq: ARMHY; London: ARM) as well as offerings from fabless chipmakers, which in turn get support from semiconductor wafer foundries like TSMC, has made it easy for companies like Amazon.com, Barnes & Noble, and Walmart to stray well beyond their traditional markets to embrace hardware products. Even companies that could be described as regular OEMs are enlarging the pool of products they offer in response to changing customer needs. Companies like Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), for instance, have changed the way we look at service providers. The acquisition of Motorola Mobility Inc. (NYSE: MMI) by Google, for example, is still reverberating in the wireless equipment market, while its introduction of the Android operating system has contributed to the displacement of Nokia as market leader in favor of Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (Korea: SEC). Google, while more popular for its search engine, is essentially today a hardware company via the acquisition of Motorola Mobility, but there are ongoing speculations the company itself may be getting ready to make and sell its own smartphones. If this idea seems strange (since Google already owns a smartphone vendor), consider this: Even Facebook may get into the smartphone business, according to a report in the New York Times. Why should Facebook get into the hardware business? Because more people are accessing the company's services via mobile devices than on regular computers, making it difficult for the social media company to track users and sell advertising against their online behavior. Even Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), once a purely PC company, has changed the dynamics of several adjacent markets with the iPhone, the iPad, and the iPod. It's fair to say today that Apple is more of a consumer electronics company than a PC vendor. But even that description is in flux as Apple seeks to expand its influence into other end markets. On EBN, one of our more successful blogs -- in terms of page views -- is a report that speculated on new directions Apple might take that could supercharge any of a bunch of currently dull markets. (See: Apple's Next Big Thing Will Be Huge.) The wireless handset and computing equipment market is obviously evolving too rapidly, and the changing profile of the players indicates enterprises in this area will continue to redefine whatever they consider their core operations. For Microsoft, its days as a software-only company are over. It is today compelled to mix up hardware and software to remain competitive. The alliance with Nokia in the smartphone market gives it a good opportunity to light a fuse under Windows OS for mobile devices, but the market response has so far been lukewarm. A Microsoft-branded tablet PC or smartphone might be the game-changer the company needs to be more competitive against Apple OS and Android. One option Microsoft has is to simply purchase Nokia. It has the funds ($60 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of the March quarter) and the market value to support such a transaction. Plus, the target company is wounded and in survival mode. Its market capitalization has dropped to less than $10 billion versus $250 billion for Microsoft. Will Microsoft make such a move? I doubt it, but I wouldn't be surprised.