这种情形似乎不应该发生在苹果公司(Apple Inc.)──这家全世界市值最高以及最成功的消费电子巨擘。然而，该公司近来业绩表现下滑，最新一季的财报远不如分析师的预测。苹果公司的股价不是应该 持续抗跌，永远不会面临像过去这几天一样的压力吗？带有传奇色彩的苹果公司一旦表现过于“平凡”，反而让我们感到大失所望。
谁会料想的到呢？苹果公司的销售额在过去两年来已经成长一倍以上了，预计到今年九月结算的第三季将可达到1,560亿美元，象征该公司从2009年的430亿美元开始展现263%的惊人成长力道。但很讽刺的是，有些观察家指出苹果公司巨大的成功已开始显现下滑的迹象了。
当然，有什么样的公司能够持续每年成长30%甚至更多？年复一年，而未见下滑？尤其，苹果公司的成长是以牺牲其竞争对手为代价的，不过，如果因此就认为苹果的竞争对手只会在一旁眼睁睁地看着敌人吃掉他们午餐，其实并不真正了解资本主义的本质。
所以，从苹果本季营收不如预期这件事，我们可以学到几件事。首先，它更让我们确定一家公司无法永远平步青云。当然，每个人应该都明白这一点，但在电子产业、投资社群与消费领域中 的许多人都视苹果为日不落帝国。即使是现在，针对苹果公司最近面临的问题──如果这可称之为问题的话──还有些人认为这带来了一个买入苹果股票的大好机 会。我并不是一位投资分师，但经过多年观察高科技与经济领域各种事件的心得，我知道苹果公司将再度下滑。这应该不至于让大家感到震惊。
事实上，苹果公司正面对着太多强大的竞争对手。此外，回归到该公司的核心问题──苹果的业务模式是奠基于极少数产品的成功。如 iPhone 就占了该公司一半以上的营收。当然， iPhone 是一款十分成功的产品，但它能永远不断地为市场带来赞叹声吗？当它无法带来更多的吸引力时，苹果公司还有什么能用来维系用户对于无线手机和平板电脑产品的忠诚度，特别是它还面对着虎视耽耽的竞争对手正迎头赶上？
如 果我是苹果公司的供货商，我会开始关注该公司产品推出的时间表，并积极地寻求得以提升营收基础多样化的产品。分析师们深信，由于苹果公司将在今年秋季推出 新版 iPhone ，将使得苹果业绩开始反弹好转。他们认为该公司第二季营收出现下滑的情况，很可能是因为买家打算等新的 iPhone 推出后再下手。但是，我认为这种商业论据其实存在瑕疵。因为，就算有许多潜在客户乐于等待六个月后再购买新产品，但其它消费者也可能干脆直接选择其它替代 性产品啊！特别是就目前的实际情况来看，市场上已经出现许多替代产品了。
本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：后面还有一群对手追赶，做一款皆大欢喜的产品是越来越难
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• 移动设备之间的“混血”会不会成为趋势？
• 人类已无法阻止苹果主宰电子供应链了
• iPhone不如iPad争气，苹果第三财季增长趋缓YQvesmc
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最后，对于整个无线通讯产业而言，至今还没有任何单 一公司在无线手机市场成功位居主导位置的时间，能够像英特尔公司主导半导体产业一样长久。我相信新的市场主导厂商即将在几年内出现，而使苹果在无线手机领 域逐渐式微；最有智能的组件供货商们应该努力试着找出并为服务下一家市场主导厂商作好准备。我看好即将成功出线的厂商应该会是三星电子(Samsung Electronics)，该公司已经是全球最主要的无线手机供货商了，但目前在该领域的利润方面仍落后于苹果公司。
我甚至 认为，苹果公司也将在未来三到五年内失去目前在平板电脑市场主导地位。根据Strategy Analytic公司研究人员指出，苹果在今年第二季的平板电脑出货量达2,490万台，市占率达68%，主导大部份的平板电脑市场。而 Google Android 平板电脑则表现持平，仅占29%。
苹果继续地摆脱来自Android阵营的威胁， iPad 的全球市占率也在2010年第三季达到最高水平......
全 球 Android 平板电脑出货量已经增加一半以上，达到730万台。尽管市场对于像Amazon、三星、Acer与Asus也有很高的期待，但 Android 社群目前尚无法对苹果在平板电脑市占率的主导位置带来什么重大威胁。硬件设计不够出色、接口设计以及平板最佳化服务有限等因素，都是影响 Andorid 性能与销售的主要原因。
就像苹果在三星迎头赶上以前还能主宰智能手机市场多年一样，苹果同样还会占有平板电脑市场主导地位好一阵子，但强大的竞争对手们正在加紧直追中。 Google Nexus 平板计算机以及 Amazon Kindle 将会逐渐削弱苹果原有的主导地位。这就好象诺基亚(Nokia)公司曾经超越摩托罗拉行动公司(Motorola Mobility)取得龙头地位后又拱手让座一样，接下来，由苹果主导智能手机市场的时代即将划下句点，三星目前的智能手机出货量已经超过苹果了，很 快地，苹果最终也将失去目前在利润方面的优势。
毕竟，它也只是一家平凡的企业。
编译：Susan Hong
本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：参考英文原文：Is Apple Becoming Too Human?，by Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief
相关阅读：
• 移动设备之间的“混血”会不会成为趋势？
• 人类已无法阻止苹果主宰电子供应链了
• iPhone不如iPad争气，苹果第三财季增长趋缓YQvesmc
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Is Apple Becoming Too Human?
Bolaji Ojo
This was not supposed to happen to Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL). The world's biggest company by market value and the most successful consumer electronics company had had invincibility conferred upon it and should never have missed analysts' quarterly financial forecasts. Its share price should continue to defy gravity and must never come under the kind of pressure it's faced in the last few days. Apple disappointed us by appearing to be all too "human."
Who would have thought that? Apple's sales have more than doubled in just the last two years and are projected to top $156 billion in its fiscal year ending in September. That would represent an astonishing 263 percent increase from $43 billion in fiscal 2009. But as some observers have pointed out, Apple's roaring success is, ironically, behind its latest slide. What company can continue to grow 30 percent or more annually, year-after-year, without tripping? Apple's growth came at the expense of its competitors, and anyone expecting them to just stand aside as a rival ate their lunches doesn't understand the capitalist system.
So, here are the bigger lessons from Apple's earnings miss. First, it confirms the company can't walk on water. That should have been clear to everyone, but many in the electronics industry, the investment community, and the general consumer community were beginning to see Apple as infallible. Even now, there are those saying Apple's latest problem -- if one could call it a problem -- offers a buying opportunity. I am not an investment analyst, but after years of monitoring events in the high-tech and economic world, I know Apple will trip up again. It shouldn't surprise anyone.
In fact, Apple is facing too many hungry competitors not to occasionally or regularly fail to meet inflated expectations. Plus, boiled down to its core, Apple's business model is based on the success of a handful of products. The iPhone, for example, accounts now for more than half of the company's sales. Sure, it's a winning product, but will it forever continue to wow the market? And when it fails, what else will Apple use to maintain its stranglehold on the wireless handset and tablet PC sectors as rivals catch up, which they inevitably will?
If I were a supplier to Apple, I would be concerned about its product rollout schedule, and I would be looking eagerly for ways to diversify my revenue base. Analysts insist that Apple will bounce back in the fall when it is expected to introduce the latest update to the iPhone. It's possible that the second calendar quarter revenue miss happened because buyers were holding off on buying the iPhone because they want the updated device. But this is a bad business proposition. Even if many of its potential customers are happy to wait six months or more to get the latest product, other consumers will simply opt for the alternative. And, in this case, there are plenty of alternatives.
One final lesson here for the entire wireless communications industry: No single company has successfully stayed atop the leader board in wireless handsets for as long as, say, Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC) has dominated the semiconductor industry. I believe a new market leader is bound to emerge within years and eclipse Apple in wireless handsets, and the smartest components executives should be trying hard to identify and warm up to the next market leader. This may be Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (Korea: SEC), which has already become the top wireless handset vendor in the world, but still lags Apple in the amount of profits made from the sector.
I will even go long and say Apple's leadership of the tablet PC market, too, will end in the next three to five years. Today, researcher Strategy Analytics announced Apple overwhelmingly dominated the tablet PC industry in the second quarter, with its share of the market rising to 68 percent of the 24.9 million devices shipped. Google (Nasdaq: GOOG)'s Android-based tablets were flat at 29 percent, and overall shipment increased 67 percent for all devices, according to Strategy Analytics:
Apple continued to shrug off the much-hyped threat from Android and the iPad's global tablet share is at its highest level since Q3 2010...
Global Android tablet shipments grew by more than half to 7.3 million units. Despite high expectations for companies like Amazon, Samsung, Acer and Asus, the Android community has yet to make a serious dent in Apple’s dominance of the tablet market. Unspectacular hardware designs, limited uptake of cellular models and a modest number of tablet-optimized services have been among some of the main reasons for Android’s mixed performance so far.
Just as it reigned atop the smartphone market for years before Samsung caught up, Apple will be dominant in tablet PCs for a while longer, but rivals are bound to catch up. Google's Nexus tablet and Amazon's Kindle will help whittle down its leadership. Just as Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) zipped past Motorola Mobility Inc. (NYSE: MMI) but then lost its crown, Apple's domination of the smartphone market has already ended (Samsung now ships more smartphones than Apple), and it will eventually lose the profit trophy, too.
It's only human, after all.
责编：Quentin
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