微软(Microsoft)寄望最新亮相的操作系统能够扭转PC产业。但我们将从一些更有趣的角度来进行探讨。
微软的 Windows 8 是否意味着 Wintel 双寡占世代的终结？可以说是，也可以说不是。
微软已经推出下一代Windows的重大革新版本和自有的Surface平板电脑。确实，无论Windows 8和 Surface 目前都是是用 ARM 版 SoC 。然而，尽管面临这种威胁，但 Wintel 双寡占市场的威力依然强大。
从ACE谈起
还记得ACE吗？由康柏(Compaq)、微软、NEC和其它PC领导业者，共同在1991年定义了一种基于MIPS、执行 Windows NT 和 SCO Unix 的台式计算机。该系统的主机板为MIPS RC3230(下图所示)，被认为应该是x86的杀手。
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但 ACE PC 的性能并没有比 Pentium PC好上多少，特别是当时英特尔(Intel)更积极地采用最新的半导体制程技术。而且， ACE 系统确实有点贵。所以，他们从来没有起飞过。
今天，大多数PC厂商都已经推出了采用 x86 Win 8的台式计算机和笔电系列产品。只有极少数的公司──包括宏基(Acer)、华硕(Asus)、联想(Lenovo)、三星(Samsung)和中兴通讯(ZTE)等厂商预计针对 Windows RT 开发系统(截至目前为止仅针对平板电脑)，另外还有一些厂商则表示在2013年初以前都还无法就绪。
不过，在Wintel双寡占领域已经出现越来越多的裂缝了，传统PC和笔电的销售正面临着一个关键时刻。乘着强大的智能手机和一系列智能装置而来的 ARM ，目前已然建立起一个强大的生态系统，这与上世纪90年代 ACE 计算机的情况截然不同。
如果 ARM 的策略奏效，充份运用其在平板领域的优势，那么64位的ARM芯片就可能会开始出现在笔电、桌上型计算机和 服务器等产品中。未来的发展谁又会预料得到呢？到2015年秋天，或许我们会看到首款基于Windows的ARM版服务器。
这将对半导体产业产生重大影响，特别是这个产业中规模最大的成员──英特尔。当面对ARM公司通常售价低至20美元的SoC竞争时，这家x86巨擘很可能无法再让其客户端CPU平均销售价格维持在100美元左右的水准。
这家业界最大的微处理器制造商，有可能成为取代台积电(TSMC)的厂商吗。会凭借着 FinFET技术，或是其它任何优势吗？
另外，伴随着 Windows 8 的问世，未来整个电子产业也将出现一些曲折的发展。以下，我们将提供一些有趣的分析。
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：Windows RT就是超级阉割版
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Win RT = Windows (Very) Basic
针对ARM版 SoC 的Windows RT无法执行旧版Windows的应用程序。微软提供精简版的Office，而且拿掉了应用最广的Outlook。
使用者是否都需要Windows的兼容性，并坚持需要执行在 x86 架构上的 Win 8 ？这正是微软为何推出 Win RT 的原因。而 Win RT 成效如何，大家都在屏息等待。
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Win Tab 2.0
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Surface并非微软首次推出的触控屏幕平板电脑。十年前，曾经有过一些沉重且昂贵的Windows for Pen Computing系统，包括这款现在陈列在博物馆中，三星的 PenMaster 在内。这是一台iPad吗？显然不是。
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：第三代可旋转装置
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第三代可旋转装置(Convertibles 3.0)
“混合式”这个名词不只可用在电动车或电动脚踏车上。在 Win 8移动世界中，已经出现了许多可旋转的设计。这些制造商们再一次跟随着巨人的脚步。
IBM Convertible (下图)是一台可携式计算机，还保留着一个类似PC的3.5英吋软盘和可选的打印机模块。4.77MHz的8088 CPU与256KB的RAM，曾经在1986年的某一天让业界惊叹。
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Jeff Hawkins创作的 Palm Pilot 和 Treo 最引人注目，其次是Grid Systems Convertible 2260(下图)概念。这款1992年问世的产品实际上是一台盒状的笔记本电脑或平板电脑，让不怕背重物的使用者可以随身携带。
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本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：这算创新吗？
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这算创新吗──Hinges
我真的很怕听到有人说：“我们为新的 Windows 8 移动PC所做的真正创新之一，就是我们为它打造了创新的枢杻(Hinges)。”
这种能够很容易地扭动的超薄平板电脑，或者说是一台很会“扭”的笔记本电脑，我们可以说他是有用的，酷的，不容易的，就像联想的 Yoga (下图)运作起来似乎特别顺畅。但请记住，当PC的创新已经涉及到 ASIC 的开发时，难道不能去定义一种新的显示技术，或是其它比“hinge”更复杂一点的东西吗？
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这算创新吗──Picking SoC
请饶了PC工程师吧。曾几何时，英特尔已经成为幕后主导，告诉他们哪些芯片该应用在什么样的市场，而且还在系统设计上提供了一些指导。而其它与Windows系统中硬件要求的相关细节则由微软来填补。
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这些日子以来，同一批工程师们必须去评估一大堆的ARM版SoC，每一颗都拥有不同的外围，有着不同的软件需求，而且必须做出不同的功耗折衷设计。此外，他们还必须决定是否能应用在Windows 8系统和其它的Android设备上。
这是好消息，让一些工程师必须再次去做真正的系统级设计。但也是坏消息，今天留在PC产业的工程师们，几乎没有人知道该怎么做了。
另一消息是，他们不再需要在大量的 ARM SoC 以外还考虑德州仪器(TI)的 OMAP芯片。 TI已然退出平板之争。
这算创新吗──Type Cover、Touch Cover
业界人士称微软的产品要比iPad多了一条腿。这是代表微软产品中的SoC拥有每焦耳更多的GHz性能？不。那么，是新的超级视网膜(super-retina)显示技术吗？也不尽然。
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微软想出了两种也能当作键盘使用的设计。这是很不错的主意，它可能胜过许多OEM合作伙伴所提供的产品设计。不过，你可以只将这类产品设计任务交给像Ideo这类工业设计公司吗？
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：创新的边缘：开始按钮在哪里？
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创新的边缘──“开始”按钮在哪里？
一些使用者对于新的PC用户界面(即之前所称的 Metro )感到担心，因为它是如此陌生。对初学者来说，他们通常会问：“开始”按钮在哪里？
其实没必要在意那些细节了，Windows长期使用者早都被气到高血压，现在只需要有人能解决PC蓝屏的问题，就能让他们降血压了。
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Even niches are big
平板是电子产业的当红炸子鸡，即使是廉价的7寸机种，也预估2013年将成长到7,000万台。就算每台只卖99美元，它的量也是惊人的庞大。
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所以，我们何时会看到小版的 Surface？
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：有趣的All-in-one PC
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有趣的All-in-one PC
Windows 8 不仅是有助于PC厂商追寻苹果的iPad脚步。它也让微软遵循iMac。
拥有又大又漂亮的屏幕，而且集所有功能于一身…在英特尔今年九月的年度开发者论坛上，宏基和联想都展示了新机型。而现在，一些具备更先进互动功能的机种也相继推出。
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编译： Joy Teng
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
参考英文原文：Slideshow: 10 things you should know about Win 8，by Rick Merritt
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Slideshow: 10 things you should know about Win 8
Rick Merritt
The debut of Microsoft’s latest mega OS will twist the PC industry into more pretzels than a yoga class. We explore some of the more interesting positions.
SAN JOSE, Calif. – The debut of Windows 8 on Friday (Oct. 26) marks the end of the Wintel duopoly, right? Well, yes and no.
Microsoft is rolling out its next big version of Windows and its own Surface tablet as its first platform. Yes, both Win 8 and Surface come in versions for ARM-based SoCs. But the Wintel duopoly is going strong despite this threat and ones before it.
Remember ACE? Compaq, Microsoft, NEC and a few other PC leaders got together in 1991 to define a MIPS-based desktop that would run Windows NT and SCO Unix. Motherboards from systems like the MIPS RC3230 (below) were supposed to be x86 killers.
Click on image to enlarge.
The ACE PCs didn’t offer much more performance than Pentium PCs of the day, especially after Intel got more aggressive in the use of the latest semiconductor process technology. And the ACE systems were a bit pricey. So they never took off.
Today, most PC makers have already rolled out full portfolios of x86 Win 8 desktops and notebooks. Only a handful of companies—Acer, Asus, Lenovo, Samsung and ZTE—are expected to make systems (just tablets, so far) for Windows RT, and those probably will not be ready until early 2013.
Still, there’s a growing fissure in the Wintel duopoly, and it comes a touchy time with traditional desktop and notebook sales sputtering. ARM has built up a powerful ecosystem, riding the smartphone and smart everything juggernaut unlike the ad hoc ACE group of the 1990s.
If ARM gets a foot in the door (to mix metaphors) and uses its leverage in tablets, the 64-bit ARM chips that emerge could start appearing in notebooks, desktops and even servers. Who knows? Come the fall of 2015, we may see the debut of Windows Server for ARM, too.
This would have major repercussions for the semiconductor industry, especially its largest member--Intel. The x86 giant would not be able to sustain its average selling prices that now hover around $100 for client CPUs in the face of ARM SoCs that typically cost about $20.
The industry’s biggest microprocessor maker might become the new and largest alternative to TSMC. FinFETs, anyone?
Meanwhile there are plenty of interesting and awkward twists and turns ahead thanks to the advent of Win 8. We offer some examples in the following pages.
Win RT = Windows (Very) Basic
Click on image to enlarge.
Windows RT, the version of Win 8 for ARM SoCs, does not run legacy Windows apps. Microsoft is supplying a cut-down version of Office for it that lacks one of its most popular apps—Outlook. A mobile system sans the leading email client? Go figure.
Will users demand Windows compatibility and stick with Win 8 for x86? That’s the question Microsoft poses with Win RT. The guys in England are holding their collective breath.
Win Tab 2.0
Click on image to enlarge.
Windows 8 is not the first time Microsoft has fielded touch screen tablets. There were plenty of lovely, albeit heavy and expensive, Windows for Pen Computing systems floating around a decade ago including this gorgeous Samsung PenMaster, now a museum piece. An iPad, it aint.
Convertibles 3.0
Click on image to enlarge.
Hybrids aren't just for cars and bicycles. Convertibles of all sorts are huge in the Win 8 mobile world. Once again, they follow in the footsteps of giants.
The IBM Convertible (above) was a portable PC that also sported a desktop-like 3.5-inch floppy drive and an optional printer module. Its 4.77-MHz 8088 CPU backed up with 256 Kbytes RAM was a screamer for its day in 1986.
Jeff Hawkins, most noted for his creation of the Palm Pilot and Treo, followed up the concept with the Grid Systems Convertible 2260 (below). It actually served as a boxy notebook or tablet for the rugged field service workers of 1992 who could tote the hefty package.
Click on image to enlarge.
Innovating at the margins: Hinges
Click on image to enlarge.
I cringe every time I hear someone say it with a straight face: “One of the things that’s really innovative about our new Windows 8 mobile PC is the hinge we created for it."
We get it. Being able to easily twist a slim tablet into a notebook is useful, cool and not easy to make. The Lenovo Yoga (above) seems particularly supple. But remember when PC innovation involved developing an ASIC, defining a new display technology or something a little more sophisticated than a hinge?
Innovating at the margins—Picking SoCs
Click on image to enlarge.
Pity the poor PC engineer. Once upon a time Intel told him which chips to use for what market and provided some guidelines on the system design. Microsoft filled in the rest of the details with its Windows system hardware requirements.
These days, the same engineers are evaluating a handful of ARM SoCs, each with a different set of peripherals, firmware requirements and ecosystem and power-per-watt tradeoffs. In addition, they have to decide if they can run not only their Windows 8 systems on it, but their Android boxes as well.
The good news is there’s some real system level design needed again. The bad news is, almost no one is left in PC companies today who knows how to do it anymore.
The other news is they no longer have the Texas Instruments OMAP chip above to add to the list of ARM SOCs to consider. TI pulled out of the tablet race.
Innovating at the margins: Type Cover, Touch Cover
Click on image to enlarge.
Pundits hail Microsoft for getting a leg up on Apple’s iPad. More GHz per joule in a Microsoft SoC? Nope. New super-retina display technology. Not included.
Microsoft came up with a couple covers that act as keyboards. Useful idea, and it probably trumps many of the dock-able concepts its OEM partners are offering. Still, isn’t this the kind of thing you commission an industrial design firm like Ideo for?
Innovating at the margins: Where’s the start button?
Some users fear navigating the new PC user interface formerly known as Metro that is part of Windows 8. It’s just so strange and unfamiliar. For starters, Where’s the start button, they ask?
Enter Samsung’s S Manager software that replaces it, lowering blood pressure for veteran Windows users. Now we just need someone to supply a third-party app for the blue screen of death so we can all still have an opportunity to vent our rage.
By the way, we’d be remiss if we didn’t note reviewers say Win 8 is the first upgrade of the venerable OS that runs faster on similarly configured systems as its predecessor.
Even niches are big
We are all about as weary of hearing about tablets as we are the U.S. presidential election. Sorry, but in both cases there’s big money at stake.
In the case of tablets, even those el cheapo seven-inch machines are set to grow to nearly 70 million units in 2013. Even at scalper prices of $99 each that’s a lot of cash.
So when will we see a Surface Petite?
All-in-ones are fun
Windows 8 is not only helping PC makers follow Apple’s iPad. It’s also enabling Microsoft to follow the iMac.
Expect lots of all-in-one machines with big, beautiful screens. Acer and Lenovo models were on display at Intel’s annual developers conference in September. Some fold down into interactive game-playing tables like the…Microsoft Surface PC above.
责编：Quentin
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