我从不曾怀疑过自己的人性，直到有一天，家人给了我一本有趣的书：《我们人类： 人类追寻自我价值及定位的历史》(So You Think You're Human？－A Brief History of Humankind)。它使我开始怀疑对于有关人类的假设及其所代表的意思。这本书的作者是Felipe Fernandez-Armesto，虽然这并不是一本探讨商业领域的书籍，但我还是推荐给所有产业的企业主管们，特别是电子产业OEM和半导体公司的领导者们。
最近我在编辑一则有关消费电子与PC巨擘──苹果公司的文章时，突然想到了这本书。跟这本书看似不相关的文章中提到，苹果公司可能考虑自行生产其Macintosh计算机芯片组以及其它自家的消费性电子产品。这将意味着它将放弃其现有的供货商──英特尔(Intel)的芯片，甚至为其它OEM类似的行动开启了一扇门，还可能终止x86架构十年来在计算机领域的主导地位。
这篇文章的观点与苹果对于宣称侵犯其专利的竞争对手采取的强势作法不谋而合，例如已故的苹果CEO乔布斯向Google诉诸“热核战”(thermonuclear war)、压榨供货商降低成本等等。然而，苹果公司在市场上举足轻重，就连智能手机与平板电脑的对手三星电子(Samsung Electronics)也难与其较劲。毫无疑问地，苹果已经是当今业界众厂商争相讨好的公司了。
然而，对于苹果和电子产业来说，还存在一个较大的问题。我想强调的是，苹果能有今天的成就，部份原因在于该公司的供货商都愿意配合其要求，甚至在苹果还是PC市场的小公司正准备进军消费电子市场之际。而今，如果背弃曾经协助过你站起来的公司，我认为这将是一项很糟糕的经营策略，最终还可能让你的公司付出更大的代价。
现在，让我针对苹果在电子产业供应链中的角色提供更多的观察。就我所知，在电子产业领域中，还没有其它公司能达到 像苹果一样的成长速度，当然也没有其它厂商能如此彻底地吸引投资人。在短短的三年内，该公司的销售额就成长了三倍多，从2009年的429亿美元成长到 2012年约1,565亿美元。该公司巨大的购买力(苹果公司2012年的销货总成本约88亿美元)，意味着它有能力决定一家供货商的成败。光是苹果公司 巨大半导体采购预算的一小部份，就可能使一家公司的营收大幅增加，并迅速提升市场价值。相反地，如果损失了这么大笔的合约，也可能会结束掉一家公司的业务。
让我解译一下这些数字的意义。如果你是(或希望成为)苹果公司的供货商，一旦苹果公司发了一封短信说要见你，就算你是英特尔公司的CEO，你应该也会丢下一切，跑到加州Cupertino去吧！更何况英特尔可不是电子产业中的小公司，它是世界上最大的半导体供应商，2011年的销售额达到了540亿美元。如果苹果公司决定放弃使用英特尔的处理器，这一举动将对于已在移动手机市场备受ARM压力的英特尔头痛更严重三倍。
本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：苹果也应该重新考虑其他供应商
相关阅读：
• 英特尔CEO提前退休，继任者肩负向移动领域转型重任
• 苹果转单效应发酵，尔必达移动内存营收增长七成
• [拆拆看]硬件与上代相似，iPad 4是来打酱油的么？Zh9esmc
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苹果公司应该重新慎重考虑这项决定。虽然苹果并没义务持续与英特尔的业务往来，而英特尔公司本身也没权利决定业界应该流行什么。我并不是在指责苹果公司为了坚持使用一家定供货商，而牺牲掉另一家原有的供货商。然而，没有任何一家公司可以自行处理涉及设计、生产、配送、销售以及产品售后服务的所有活动。甚至让许多公司觉得自己随时可轻易地被取代，无论该公司现有的情况如何，对于长期的败务策略来说，这都不是一项应有的决定。
在电子产业中，没有任何一家公司能够永远占据主导地位，而且苹果公司的优势目前也已经在多个市场开始受到打击了，包括数位音乐播放器(MP3)、智能手机和平板电脑等市场。苹果公司过去在这些市场所实现的销售数字将开始发生转变，因为它实在是一个太诱人的目标了，许多公司都已经以苹果丰厚的利润设定其范围了。例如，根据最近的统计报告指出，三星公司在今年第三季的智能手机市场出货量已经超越了苹果公司。
就像本文标题所说的，没有一家公司能在任何市场中永远立于不败之地。苹果公司并非天下无敌，总有一天，苹果也会需要求助于其重要的供货商。如果它对于其现有供货商的需要仍然不闻不问，总有一天，它将会付出同样的代价。
本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载
编译：Susan Hong
参考英文原文：So You Think Apple Is Invincible...，by Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief
相关阅读：
• 英特尔CEO提前退休，继任者肩负向移动领域转型重任
• 苹果转单效应发酵，尔必达移动内存营收增长七成
• [拆拆看]硬件与上代相似，iPad 4是来打酱油的么？Zh9esmc
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So You Think Apple Is Invincible...
Bolaji Ojo
I had never questioned my humanity until a family member gave me an interesting book titled So You Think You're Human: A Brief History of Humankind. It forced me to question my assumptions about humanity and what it meant. The book, by Felipe Fernández-Armesto, is not about the business world, but I still recommend it to corporate executives in all industries and especially leaders of electronic OEMs and semiconductor companies.
The book came to mind while I was editing a seemingly unrelated article about how consumer electronics and PC giant Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) may be considering producing (itself) chipsets for the Macintosh computers and possibly many of its consumer electronics products. This will mean dumping current vendor Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC), opening the door for similar moves by other OEMs (OK, that may be a stretch), and possibility ending the dominance of the X86 architecture that has reigned over the computing market for decades.
Couple this with the take-no-prisoners way Apple has pursued rivals for allegedly violating its patents, the late CEO Steve Jobs's declaration of "thermonuclear war" on Google, and the squeeze it allegedly puts on suppliers to reduce inventory costs, and you get the image of a company really throwing its weight around. Apple's heft is substantial -- not even smartphone and tablet market rival Samsung Electronics relishes a dust-up with the company. Today, Apple is the undisputed no. 1 company that vendors fawn over, for good reasons.
There's a bigger issue here, though, for the industry and for Apple. What I'd like to point out is that Apple got to where it is today because its supply base was willing to work with the company even when it was a bit player in the PC market and during its march up the consumer electronics food chain. Dumping the companies that helped push you up is a bad business strategy that may eventually cost a company a lot more than it might gain. More on this later.
For now, let me provide some additional insight into Apple's role in the electronics supply chain. No other company in the electronics world has to my knowledge grown as rapidly as Apple, and certainly no other has captured investor imagination quite as completely. In just three years, its sales more than tripled to $156.5 billion in fiscal 2012 ended September 29 from $42.9 billion in fiscal 2009. The company's enormous purchasing power (total costs of goods sold in Apple's fiscal 2012 was approximately $88 billion) means it can make or break a vendor. A slice of Apple's enormous semiconductor procurement budget could swell a company's revenue and dramatically jack up its market value. The loss of such a contract could, conversely, drive an enterprise out of business.
Let me translate again what those numbers mean if you are a supplier -- or wish to be a vendor -- to Apple. Even if you are the CEO of Intel, you'd drop everything and run down to Cupertino, Calif., if Apple sent a text message asking to see you. And Intel isn't one of the smallest companies in the electronics market: It is the world's biggest semiconductor supplier by sales with $54 billion in 2011 revenue. If Apple drops Intel, this move will automatically triple the severity of the headache the chipmaker is already experiencing from the lock ARM Ltd. (Nasdaq: ARMHY; London: ARM) seeming has on the mobile handset market.
Apple should rethink this move. The company has no obligations to keep Intel in business, and the semiconductor vendor itself does not have a right to what should prevail in the industry. I am not advocating Apple stick with a particular supplier at the expense of another. However, no single company can handle the dozens of activities involved in the design, production, distribution, sales, and after-sales support of its products. Making companies feel as if they can be easily replaced isn't a fiscally good long-term strategy notwithstanding your company's current position.
No company in this industry reigns forever, and Apple's domination is already under assault in all of its markets, including digital music players, smartphones, and tablet PCs. The numbers will start to shift against the company because it is too tempting a target, and too many companies have their scope set on its fat margins. A recent report noted Samsung beat Apple in smartphone shipment during the third quarter, for example.
As the headline of this blog indicates, no company has an unassailable position in any market. Apple is not invincible. A day will come when it will need to call in some favors for critical supplies or to clinch a share-winning deal. If it remains blind and deaf to the needs of its current suppliers, they'll repay the favors in equal measures.
责编：Quentin
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