你是否已经听到超高分辨率电视(Ultra HDTV，UHDTV)──即所谓的4K2K电视──正敲响战鼓？我听到了…但问题在于那将会是一场大戏的序曲，还是“来自东方”的街头艺人独奏？
严格说来，这个发展已久的技术趋势还未全力冲刺，但该新兴技术将带来的超高分辨率视频、也就是拥有比目前1080p HDTV高四倍的像素，已经在2013年国际消费性电子展上(CES)成为被炒作的话题。当然，UHDTV确实能提供令人惊艳的视觉震撼；在2012年的CES上，已经有包括Sharp、Sony等几家公司展示相关产品。
具备3,840×2,160像素分辨率的UHDTV标准， 是在2007年由美国电影电视工程师协会(Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers，SMPTE)首度公布，并获得了国际电信联盟(ITU)的认可，允许每秒24、25、60与120桢(frames)数。
UHDTV视频制作设备，包括摄影机、编译码设备已经有厂商进行设计与开发，在 2012年举行的伦敦奥运会上，有几场赛事就是以UHDTV标准进行转播。
LG Electronics 在 2012年10月发表第一款84寸的大屏幕LED背光4K2K液晶电视，售价1万9,999美元；Samsung日前也宣布将在 2013年度的CES展期间发表85寸UHDTV。除此之外，包括Broadcom、Ambarella 等芯片厂商，也计划于CES上展示UHDTV编译码器IC ──显然芯片产业领域已经加紧脚步，围绕UHDTV建立生态系统。
LG Electronics 在 2012年10月发表84寸LED背光4K2K液晶电视
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但我认为，UHDTV恐怕仍是一个无法获得成功的技术；分析电视产业由模拟迈向数字化的历史过程可以发现，UHDTV在三个方面缺乏成功动力，一是产品外观(form-factor)，二是政治意愿(political will)，第三则是纯经济因素。
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
第二页：UHDTV的三个软肋详解
第三页：有线电视产业是否有能力提供4K2K内容？
相关阅读：
• 传松下停止等离子面板研发，暗示电视产业转型
• 2013年液晶电视市场的三个热点
• OLED电视延迟量产，厂商转而扎堆4K2K电视WJYesmc
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第一，HDTV (或说数字电视)迟来的成功，有很大程度得归功于平面电视的全面崛起，产业界以外观设计时尚的新一代平面液晶/电浆电视来推广HDTV，才因此受到消费者的热烈欢迎。
而若要让庞大的84寸UHDTV发挥令人赞叹的效果，产业界需要像是科幻电影《华氏911 (Fahrenheit 451)或《回到未来2 (Back to the Future: 2)》那种“视频墙”；唯有全面性的电视外观改变，才能支持这种新型态娱乐。
第二，HDTV在1980年代获得想在有限的无线电波内确保额外频宽的美国电视广播产业大力支持，他们游说美国国会与联邦通讯委员会(FCC)将“数字电视”(这个名词是由美国公司General Instruments发明的)订为美日竞争的重要议题；在模拟时代的HDTV被称为Hi-Vision，是由日本公共电视NHK所发明。
有数家一开始在美国HDTV领域相互竞争的美国厂商，共同合作成立了一个“大联盟”，订出美国的HDTV标准；而美国广播产业与“大联盟”都是美国电视迈向数字化过程中，缺一不可的推动力量。
而UHDTV标准又是由NHK主导开发，几乎可说是只在日本市场被推广的增强型HDTV标准；但目前在美国并没有UHDTV“大联盟”或是其它产业组织，为了让UHDTV获得广泛采用而施加政治压力。
第三，UHDTV看来只会是金字塔顶端的1%美国人才买得起的昂贵玩具；顾问机构Accenture的电子与高科技事业群高阶主管Kumu Puri就指出：“标价约2万美元的UHDTV对大众消费者来说可能还是太昂贵了，特别是当你想到超高分辨率内容还未普及。”
Puri也指出：“要等到消费者对该技术越来越熟悉、制造商调降产品价格，以及内容供货商开始采用该规格之后，该市场才会取得动力。”
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
第三页：有线电视产业是否有能力提供4K2K内容？
相关阅读：
• 传松下停止等离子面板研发，暗示电视产业转型
• 2013年液晶电视市场的三个热点
• OLED电视延迟量产，厂商转而扎堆4K2K电视WJYesmc
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话 虽如此，UHDTV无法成功的终极因素是，该技术完全是由产业界推动，但韩国与日本的消费性电子业者都在积极保住平面电视产品的利润，迫切需要为亏损的电 视业务寻求“附加价值”。那些厂商已经尝试过连网电视、3D TV与Google TV，UHDTV是他们的最新花招，可惜消费者不会因为同情那些厂商而购买产品。
不过，还是有一线希望；人们对于美丽的画面 还是难以抗拒。根据Broadcom的相关产品线总监Joseph Del Rio说法，只要随便去问一个Best Buy的店员就会知道：“当消费者站在一整面电视墙前面，高画质产品总是会胜出。”高分辨率能打败3D、甚至打败智能电视。
但美国的有线电视产业是否有能力提供4K2K内容？对此Del Rio表示，别低估那些有线电视业者，该产业已经准备好支持具备频道捆 绑(channel bonding)功能的DOCSIS 3.0 IP封包协议；所谓的频道捆 绑能让单一用户同时使用多个下行与上行串流频道，并可任意在20~40Mbps之间机动改变速率：“这让有线电视业者能根据需 求提供高频宽内容。”
而另一家芯片业者Ambarella的销售与业务发展副总裁Chris Day则预期，无论有线电视产业是否准备好支持UHDTV，观众还是可以透过网络取得4K2K内容，该公司即将推出的芯片正是为了将4K2K技术推向主流消费性市场。
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
编译：Judith Cheng
参考英文原文：CES: Three reasons why Ultra HDTV is a non-starter，by Junko Yoshida
相关阅读：
• 传松下停止等离子面板研发，暗示电视产业转型
• 2013年液晶电视市场的三个热点
• OLED电视延迟量产，厂商转而扎堆4K2K电视WJYesmc
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CES: Three reasons why Ultra HDTV is a non-starter
Junko Yoshida
LAS VEGAS – Are you hearing drumbeat of Ultra HDTV yet? I am. The question is whether this is “The Music Man” overture or a solo bongo player on a street corner in the East Village.
Seriously, this long developing "trend" has yet to reach full force. Nonetheless, the emerging technology designed to bring video in super high resolution with four times the pixels of current 1080p HDTV is the topic destined to be hyped, dissected and hotly debated at the Consumer Electronics Show this week in Las Vegas.
Sure, video on Ultra HDTV is nothing short of breathtaking. CES 2012 offered a taste of it at several booths, including Sharp and Sony.
Ultra HDTV, sometimes known as 4K x 2K, offers video in 3,840 × 2,160 pixels of resolution. The standard’s spec first released by the Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers (SMPTE) in 2007 also has been approved by ITU, with its UHDTV standard allowing 24, 25, 60 and 120 frames per second. The UHDTV video production systems -- including cameras and encoder systems – have been designed and developed. Some venues at the London Olympics last year were shot in UHDTV.
LG launched 84-inch UHDTV display last October in the U.S. market
LG Electronics launched U.S. sales late last year of the first LED-backlit LCD flat panel display – 84 whopping inches – at a resolution of 3,840 x 2,160 for the also whopping price of $19,999. This ain’t Archie Bunker’s Philco!
Samsung also promised to roll out an 85-inch UHDTV at CES this week. LG already has a model on the market.
Expect to hear more from digital video chip companies like Broadcom and Ambarella, who will be showing off Ultra HDTV encode/decode ICs at CES this week.
Clearly, the chip industry’s pace in building an ecosystem around UHDTV has been picking up.
UHDTV is nevertheless still a non-starter for the following three reasons.
Form factor, political will and economics
If the history of the revolutionary shift from analog to digital TV is our guide, UHDTV lacks momentum in three areas: form-factor; political will; and pure economics.
First, the belated success of HDTV (or digital TV) owes a great deal to the eventual emergence of flat-panel TV. The industry’s push to HDTV piggybacked on the new sleek, flat form factor of LCDs and/or plasma displays, which consumers enthusiastically embraced.
To build excitement around a mammoth 84-inch UHDTV, the industry needs a true “video wall” – the kind portrayed in futuristic movies like “Fahrenheit 451” and “Back to the Future: 2.” Only a universal form factor change can justify this sort of rumpus-room upheaval.
Second, HDTV in the 1980’s got a huge boost when the U.S. TV broadcast industry – wanting to secure extra bandwidth within the limited wireless airwaves – lobbied Congress and the Federal Communications Commission to define "digital" TV (invented by a U.S. company, General Instruments) as a key U.S.-vs.-Japan competitiveness issue. The original analog HDTV system called Hi-Vision was invented by NHK, Japan’s public broadcaster.
Several U.S. companies – initially competing among themselves to be a winner of the U.S. HDTV system – joined forces to forge a consortium called the “Grand Alliance,” which eventually developed the U.S. HDTV standard. Both the broadcast industry and Grand Alliance became the indispensable forces behind the U.S. transition to digital TV.
UHDTV, developed again by NHK, is almost certainly being promoted as the enhanced standard within Japan. But in the U.S., UHDTV has no Grand Alliance, nor any other major interest group to exert the political pressure needed for broad adoption.
UHDTV for '1 percent' of Americans
Third, UHDTV is the ultimate video toy for the “1 percent” of Americans. Call it Romneyvision, UHDTV will remain a plaything for the rich in the foreseeable future. Kumu Puri, senior executive with Accenture’s electronics and high-tech group, noted, “With an estimated $20,000 price tag, Ultra HDTV sets may be too expensive for mass-market consumption, especially when you consider that this ultra high-definition content is not yet commercially available.” Did she say “may be”?
She added that “market momentum will likely wait until consumers become more familiar with the technology, manufacturers reduce prices, and content providers embrace the format.”
But ultimately, here is one good reason why Ultra HDTV is a non-starter. UHDTV is an all-industry push. CE companies are looking for ways to secure margins for their flat-panel TVs. They desperately need so-called “value add” for their money-losing TV business.
They’ve tried Internet TV, 3-D and Google TV. The latest gimmick is UHDTV. Consumers don’t buy products out of compassion for overextended companies trying to save their businesses.
There is, however, one ray of hope. A great picture is hard to resist. Said Joseph Del Rio, associate product line director at Broadcom, “Ask any sales guy at Best Buy. When consumers come to a store and see the wall of pictures, the best picture always wins.” Resolution beats 3-D, and it beats smart TV.
Asked whether the U.S. cable industry is prepared for 4K x 2K content distribution, Del Rio responded: “Don’t underestimate the U.S. cable guys.” The cable industry is already getting ready for DOCSIS 3.0, IP packet protocol over cable, featuring channel bonding. The channel bonding, enabling multiple downstream and upstream channels to be used together at the same time by a single subscriber, can also dynamically change its rate, anywhere from 20 to 40 Megabits per second (Mbps). “This will allow cable guys to offer the high-bandwidth content on demand.”
But whether or not the cable industry is ready for UHDTV, Chris Day, vice president of marketing and business development, at Ambarella, Inc., predicted that 4K content materials may become first available on the Internet. Ambarella believes its upcoming chips are designed to “drive 4K into mainstream consumer market.”
责编：Quentin
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