让我们面对现实吧…自始至终，我们都知道这出戏会如何收尾：来自西方的芯片供货商即将下台一鞠躬──除了唯一的幸存者，手机芯片龙头高通(Qualcomm)。
几天前，当我结束与中国晶片设计业者展讯通信(Spreadtrum)CEO李力游的专访，一回到下榻的旅馆，就发现电子邮件信箱里躺着 ST-Ericsson 母公司爱立信(Ercisson)与意法半导体(ST)决定拆伙的声明。根据新闻稿，爱立信将接收 ST-Ericsson 的4G LTE多模薄型调制解调器(multi-mode slim modem)产品线，意法则将接收除上述产品线以外所有的ST-Ericsson芯片产品，包括其余调制解调器芯片业务、RF、电源管理芯片以及NovaThor整合型应用处理器。
采用ST-Ericsson方案的索尼智能手机纵使大卖，也没能止住STE拆分的脚步
1kJesmc
稍早之前，日本瑞萨电子(Renesas Electronics)宣布该公司正在重新检视其手机芯片业务发展方向，考虑将旗下子公司瑞萨通信(Renesas Mobile)出售或是规划新的业务模式。无论是ST-Ericsson或Renesas Mobile，最终都是要放弃手机基带芯片业务，就像是德州仪器(TI)、飞思卡尔半导体(Freescale)与美商亚德诺(ADI)在几年前做的。
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：失败就是因为没有看重中国市场
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• 版图再重整，手机芯片市场谁能笑到最后？1kJesmc
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市场研究机构Strategy Analytics分析师Sravan Kundojjala日前发表一篇评论，将ST-Ericsson的失败归咎于：“把旧有产品复制过渡到一个新产品蓝图，以及管理高层不断变动。”他表示，该合资公司的整并过程不顺利，也未能执行最初的发展计划。对于瑞萨通信的失败，其它产业分析师也有类似的看法，认为未顺利整合来自不同公司的团队是最大问题，包括收购自诺基亚(Nokia)的调制解调器芯片业务。
但我认为，以上的分析漏了一个重点：无论是ST-Ericsson或瑞萨通信都没有体认到，传统以一线手机厂客户为目标的商业模式，对于决胜全球市场越来越没帮助。
就 像李力游说的，在十年前只要能取得主要来自美国或欧洲的手机供货商订单，一切就没问题，因为当时摩托罗拉(Motorola)、诺基亚、三星 (Samsung)与 Sony-Ericsson等一线大厂，就囊括了全球九成的手机出货量。但现在，那些传统一线厂的全球市占率仅剩四成，其余的市场比例都被中国手机厂包 了；而且根据市场研究机构Canalys预测，今日的中国智能手机市场估计可达2.4亿支规模(2013年)，比估计1.25亿支的美国市场大上许多。
2013年各新兴市场智能手机出货量预估
Source：Canalys1kJesmc
而实际上，现今世界上几乎所有的智能手机──不考量品牌──都是在中国制造。就是因为没有着重蓬勃发展的中国市场，以及当地手机厂对于与芯片供货商紧密合作关系的特别需求，ST-Ericsson或瑞萨通信的市场占有率才会在近几年来直直落。
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：不只是中国，还有其它新兴市场
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• 智能手机及4G LTE崛起，2012手机芯片市场排名大变
• 版图再重整，手机芯片市场谁能笑到最后？1kJesmc
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不只是中国，还有其它新兴市场
另一个需要特别注意中国手机OEM/ODM厂的理由是，许多当地业者手里也握着进入中国以外其它新兴市场的钥匙，包括印度、非洲与东南亚。
以展讯为例，该公司也对于进军中国以外市场有一套完整缜密的计划。首先，展讯直接与那些将供应手机给新兴市场品牌业者如印度龙头Micromax (展讯也是投资方之一)的上海、深圳ODM厂合作；其次，根据李力游表示，展讯在地区手机品牌业者与ODM厂之间主动扮演“媒合(match- making)”的角色。
Micromax品牌手机广告，他们是全球第十二大的手机制造商
1kJesmc
第三，取得全球性品牌如三星(Samsung)的设计案，也有助于展讯进军中国以外的新兴市场；根 据李力游指出，展讯的40纳米2.5G基带芯片SC6530在去年秋天进驻三星的E1282 与 E1263型号Trios系列手机。而与地方电信业者的合作也是策略之一；以非洲市场为例，李力游表示展讯与在当地活跃的法国电信商Orange有紧密合作关系：“他们对非洲市场的需求很了解，我们可提供通过Orange验证的芯片组。”
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：一个让芯片设计业者越来越处于平等竞争地位的市场
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一个让芯片设计业者越来越处于平等竞争地位的市场
随着ARM、Imagination或CEVA等热门处理器核心越来越容易取得，以及有台积电(TSMC)等晶圆代工厂提供的先进制程服务、各种设计工具/设计服务的加持，这些年来创造了一个能让数不清的中国无晶圆厂设计公司，能以前所未有平等地位与国际业者竞争的市场。
当 然，这并不意味着中国无晶圆厂设计业者一定会成功；现实情况是，许多中国无晶圆厂芯片业者，特别是应用处理器供货商，面对大量的“Me-too”产品而烦恼该如何寻找差异化。对此展讯的方法是特别注重研发、技术与品质，以及一步步扩增基带产品组合：首先是开发自有TD-SCDMA产品，然后透过收购 MobilePeak 取得WCDMA产品，接着向一家埃及业者取得LTE (CAT4)基带技术授权。
李力游表示，该展讯到今年底就能完成支持各种手机技术标准的产品布建，与高通、联发科(MediaTek)等对手站在平等地位；而他强调，与来自西方的芯片业者相较：“我们 的价格可以减一半，而且提供的是毫不逊色的产品，无论是品质与性能都与其它竞争厂商一样好。”──为何可以这样？李力游的解释是：“因为我们的成本结构很低。”
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
编译：Judith Cheng
参考英文原文：Yoshida in China: How ST and Renesas blew it on mobile，by Junko Yoshida
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Yoshida in China: How ST and Renesas blew it on mobile
Junko Yoshida
· We knew how this movie would end. The game is over for Western chip companies--except for the global mobile chip industry’s leader, Qualcomm.
SHANGHAI – Let’s face it. All along, we knew how this movie would end. The game is over for Western chip companies--except for a sole survivor and the mobile chip industry leader, Qualcomm.
Earlier this week, upon returning to my hotel from an interview with Spreadtrum CEO Leo Li at his office here, I found in my e-mail inbox the announcement on the breakup of the ST-Ericsson joint venture.
Ericsson is taking over the 4G LTE multi-mode slim modem product line. ST alone will oversee existing products including the legacy modem business, RF, Power Management and NovaThor integrated apps processors, according to the announcement.
A week ago, Renesas Electronics back in Japan announced that it’s “reviewing” the direction of its mobile business. The implication is that it has decided to divest Renesas Mobile or explore alternate business models for its mobile subsidiary.
Both ST-Ericsson and Renesas Mobile, in search of buyers, are likely to ditch their mobile baseband business, just as Texas Instruments, Freescale and Analog Devices did years ago.
Strategy Analytics’ analyst Sravan Kundojjala, in his commentary posted Monday (March 18), blamed ST-Ericsson’s breakup on “duplication among legacy products, transition to a new product roadmap and constant management changes.” The analyst said that the JV struggled to integrate multiple companies and execute on its original plan.
Other industry observers might posit similar reasons for Renesas’ failures, since Renesas Mobile, too, is a company based on the integration of several different companies--including Nokia’s former modem team.
Kundojjala may be correct. But I think his analysis misses a crucial point: both companies failed to recognize how a traditional business model--serving tier-one handset customers--became irrelevant to ultimately winning the global mobile battle.
As Li put it, 10 years ago, “you were OK,” if you got design wins from handset vendors in the United States and in Europe. It’s because “those tier-one guys--Motorola, Nokia, Samsung, Sony-Ericsson, etc.--held 90 percent of the global market share.”
Today, the share of the traditional tier-one companies is only 40 percent. The rest of the market is China, according to Li.
Further, China’s smartphone market today, estimated to be 240 million units in 2013, is much bigger than that of the United States, projected to be about 125 million units, according to market research firm Canalys.
And guess what?
Practically every smartphone–regardless of brand--is manufactured in China today.
Without addressing the burgeoning Chinese market and the needs of local handset vendors who demand chip suppliers to do a lot more hand holding, mobile IC vendors like ST-Ericsson or Renesas Mobile have seen their market share sharply plummet in recent years.
Global market beyond China
Another reason for paying attention to China’s handset vendors--including the many local design houses--is that they hold the key to the global market beyond China, in such countries like India, Africa and South East Asia.
Spreadtrum’s plan to sell into such markets outside China is comprehensive and elaborate. The company follows a few different routes. First, Spreadtrum directly works with design companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen, who will sell their handsets to branded handset vendors like India’s leader, Micromax. (It’s important to note that Spreadtrum also invested in this popular Indian handset vendor.)
Second, Spreadtrum plays an active role in “match-making,” said Li, between local branded handset vendors and local design houses.
Third, getting design wins in global handsets such as those by Samsung also helps get Spreadtrum’s chips into handsets sold in developing countries outside China, he added. Spreadtrum’s baseband chip last fall got a design win from Samsung Electronics. Spreadtrum is supplying a 40nm 2.5G baseband, the SC6530, to power Samsung E1282 and E1263 Trios mobile phones.
In Africa, Li noted, “We also work very closely with Orange, the French operator,” who has a big presence there. Noting Spreadtrum’s close relationship with Orange, Li said, “They understand the needs of the African market, and we offer chipsets that pass their certification.”
Level-playing field
As EE Times previously reported, the availability of popular IP cores including ARM, Imagination and CEVA, foundry services based on cutting-edge process nodes at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. or others, and various design tools and design services, have created an unprecedented level playing field, contributing to the emergence of countless fabless companies in China over the past several years.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that every Chinese fabless has been winning this war.
The reality is that many fabless companies, especially apps processors in China, plagued with me-too products, are struggling to find differentiations.
Among them, Spreadtrum in China is deemed an exception to the rule. Spreadtrum differs, because “we pay a lot of attention to R&D, technology and quality,” said Li.
The company has also steadily built its baseband portfolio, first by developing its own TD-SCDMA baseband technology for China, then adding WCDMA solutions through MobilePeak acquisition. Later on, Spreadtrum licensed LTE baseband technology (CAT 4) from a company based in Egypt. While Li declined to name the Egyptian company, he said that it is the same company from which Beceem--now owned by Broadcom--also licensed LTE technology.
“By the end of this year, I will have in my portfolio every technology handset vendors need and what Qualcomm and MediaTek already have. I will be there,” said Li.
More significantly, “I can drop the price by half,” compared to those developed by the Western chip companies, he claimed. “We do so by offering not inferior products, but that are as good as those of my competitors, in terms of quality and performance.”
Why could he say that? “Because my cost structure is low,” Li smiled.
责编：Quentin
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