中国无晶圆厂业者的未来：基带、工业和并购

过去这几年来，中国冒出了350~500家左右的无晶圆厂 IC设计业者，有一个老生常谈的问题是：它们将何去何从？ 针对以上问题，笔者近日访问的几位中国产业界高层──包括中芯国际(SMIC)与锐迪科(RDA Microelectronics)CEO──都同意，这些无晶圆厂业者之中有很多恐怕难以避免被市场淘汰。毕竟，无论中国的智能手机市场规模可能变多大，还是不可能容纳这么多提供类似多核心应用处理器的供货商。 所以，接下来会怎样呢？在上海新国际博览中心附近的酒店，负责亚太区市场的新思(Synopsys)副总裁潘建岳(Jian-Yue Pan)喝完一杯咖啡之后，做出了一些预测。(我想我们可以相信潘建岳的看法，毕竟这位EDA产业界重量级人物就是在中国土生土长，应该知道一些事情。) 首先，潘建岳预期中国会有更多新公司加入调制解调器芯片领域：“他们成长快速。”但我认为，几乎所有的中国无晶圆厂芯片业者──除了展讯(Spreadtrum)与锐迪科──都是只有做智能手机用的应用处理器，我对潘建岳说：“我一直很疑惑他们接下来要做什么。” 潘建岳面无表情地回答我：“一点也没错，他们也正在思考同样的事情。”他表示，那些公司迫切需要调制解调器技术来与他们的应用处理器整合，而他最近也注意到又有一些新厂商出现，但并没有提到任何公司名称。 接着潘建岳预言，在接下来两到三年，中国无晶圆厂芯片设计业者将准备进军“工业用IC”市场；他也看到了“数家公司”锁定了该领域，并准备冒出头。工业市场与消费性电子市场的智能手机或平板装置芯片不同，是个真正多元化的市场，每种不同的应用领域规模都不会太大，需要中国无晶圆厂芯片业者们展现更多耐性与经验。 潘建岳补充指出：“而且你需要有更大的产品阵容来支持工业应用。”工业应用芯片包罗万象，从汽车、智能电网、医疗到嵌入式系统，都是工业市场的一部分。 飞思卡尔半导体(Freescale)、德州仪器(TI)与恩智浦半导体(NXP) 等公司，都明智地选择从手机市场退出，并挟工业/嵌入式解决方案渗透进中国市场；照潘建岳的说法，所有那些跨国芯片供货商该小心警觉了。我们可能会看到这 成为中国无晶圆厂芯片产业走向成熟的第一个迹象，或者这只是另一个中国业者决定追随的FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt)？ 针对工业市场，锐迪科CEO戴保家(Vincent Tai)的观察则是：“虽然我对工业市场研究并不深入，但我印象中那是一个有很多小规模应用的分散市场，要扩张业务规模肯定很难。” 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 本文下一页：中国无晶圆厂业者之间将有更多整并发生？

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{pagination} 中国无晶圆厂业者之间将有更多整并发生？ 潘建岳对中国无晶圆厂芯片产业的第三个预言是，将会有更多的企业合并/收购案(M&A)发生。他指出，上海与深圳的首次公开上市(IPO)活动从去 年到现在都呈现暂停趋势，那些正在投资新创公司的风险资金(VC)业者：“迟早都要找一个出口。”这将为合并与收购案带来额外的动力，因此中国无晶圆厂晶 片业者之间将吹起整并风潮。 在此同时，潘建岳认为，来自西方的企业比较有可能会在中国收购“(工程师)团队”，而不是一整家公司；这种比较小规模的交易通常是私下进行，那些企业也没理由要公开。 那相反的，是否有任何一家中国无晶圆厂芯片业者有兴趣收购爱立信(Ericsson，编按：在ST-Ericsson拆分之后)或瑞萨通信(Renesas Mobile)的基频技术？对此潘建岳认为不太可能，因为那些跨国企业一开始都会比较偏好整个被收购；为了吸引中国无晶圆厂芯片业者，那些跨国企业需要有较佳的技术授权计划。 潘建岳对目前中国电子产业的情况做了以下总结：中国电子产业──包括无晶圆厂业者、晶圆代工厂等所有企业──发现自己困在一个永久性的窘境。 在一方面，许多与市场(ODM/OEM厂)保持密切关系的中国无晶圆厂芯片业者，面临需要立即响应客户需求的不间断压力；潘建岳说明：“来自市场的压力使他们保持非常积极的态度，”而且让他们对于先进制程节点特别渴望。 在 另一方面，许多中国电子厂商缺乏经验、缺乏IP；而像是新思这样的公司在此扮演的角色是：“我们尝试填补空隙。”潘建岳指出，准备好提供“完整解决方案” 是新思的关键策略之一：“光是去年，我们完成了9家公司的收购案，包括Magma Design Automation、思源科技与Eve等。” 中国的无晶圆厂业者正在进行下一代芯片的设计，举例来说，他们会需要围绕着ARM 处理器核心的各种连结IP。“妳会发现新思的资源与营收比(resources vs. revenue ratio)特别高，”潘建岳表示，这是因为在中国市场，EDA厂商需要提供客户更多的协助。 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 编译：Judith Cheng 参考英文原文：Yoshida in China: Desperate for baseband, industrial and M&A，by Junko Yoshida

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{pagination} Yoshida in China: Desperate for baseband, industrial and M&A Junko Yoshida SHANGHAI – As many as 350 to 500 fabless chip companies have popped up in China in the last several years. As I cover China’s electronics industry, there’s this one nagging question: Where do they all go from here? Everyone I met here last week--from SMIC’s CEO to RDA Microelectronics CEO--agrees on one thing: Among those fabless, a lot of “weeding out” is happening as we speak. That’s inevitable. After all, no matter how huge China’s smartphone market might be, the local market can’t possibly sustain so many vendors all offering similarly designed multicore application processors. So, what’s next? Over a cup of coffee in a hotel near the Shanghai New International Expo Center, Jian-Yue Pan, a Synopsys vice president responsible for the Asia-Pacific region, made a few predictions. [Let’s trust that Pan, an EDA-industry bigwig who lives and breathes the local Chinese market, ought to know a few things.] First, says Pan (no relation to Peter), expect more new players to emerge in “the modem chip areas” in China. “And they’re growing fast.” But I thought almost all Chinese fabless companies--except Spreadtrum and RDA--are doing only apps processors for the smartphone market. I told Pan, “I’ve always wondered about what they’d have to do next.” Pan deadpanned, “Exactly. They’re thinking the same thing.” They desperately need modems for integration into their apps processors. Pan, refraining from naming names, said he’s aware of at least a couple of new players. Industrial chips Second, in the next two to three years, Chinese fabless companies are poised to break into markets for “industrial ICs,” Pan noted. Again, Pan is seeing the emergence of “several players”--focused in these fields and ready to emerge. The difference in industrial applications is that unlike smartphone or tablet chips serving consumers, this is a truly diverse market. The total available market for each specific application won’t be so big. It’s a segment that demands Chinese fablesses to show more patience and experience. “And you need a bigger portfolio to support industrial applications,” Pan added. Industrial chips include anything from automotive applications and smart grids to medical and embedded systems for industrial markets. Freescale, Texas Instruments and NXP--who wisely steered clear of the mobile market--are penetrating the Chinese market, armed with an industrial/embedded agenda. It’s time for all of those multinationals to be on alert. We may be seeing the first sign of maturity among China fabless firms. Or, this could be just another FUD that Chinese have all decided to go after. Vincent Tai, RDA’s chief, observed, “Although I haven’t studied the industrial market very much, I imagine it to be fragmented with lots of small segments. It must be pretty tough to scale their business up.” More M&A among China fabless A third emerging trend, said Synopsys’ Pan, will be more M&A among China fablesses. Pan noted that IPOs in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have been suspended over the last year or so. VCs who seeded those startups, sooner or later, “need to find an exit,” Pan explained. This gives extra impetus for mergers or acquisitions. Consolidations among Chinese fablesses will pick up. Meanwhile, Western companies are more likely to snatch up “a team” [of engineers] in China, instead of going through M&A, Pan added. Such smaller deals often remain invisible, because the companies find no reason to disclose them. In contrast, will any China fabless be interested in buying baseband technologies from Ericsson (i.e. after ST-Ericsson dissolved) or Renesas Mobile? Pan thinks that’s unlikely. Those multinationals were initially interested in getting bought in their entirety. In order to attract China fabless, they need a good technology licensing program, Pan added. Pan summed up the state of the Chinese electronics industry today as follows. China’s electronics industry--including everyone from fabless to foundries--finds itself trapped in a perpetual quandary. On one hand many Chinese fabless companies are so close to the market [design houses, system OEMs/ODMs] that they’re under constant pressure to respond to their customers immediately. “The push from the market keeps them very aggressive,” and makes them yearn for advanced process nodes all the more, he explained. On the other hand, many Chinese electronics firms lack experience. They lack IPs. Asked what roles companies like Synopsys play here, Pan said, “We try to fill in the gap.” Cadence’s recent announcement on Tensilica acquisition aside, getting ready for “complete solutions” is one of the key trends Synopsys pioneered. “Last year alone, we pulled off nine acquisitions including Magma Design Automation, SpringSoft and Eve.” Chinese fabless in designing next chips, for example, would want all the connectivity IPs around ARM. “When you look at Synopsys resources vs. revenue ratio, you’ll find that ratio is higher” in China, he added. It’s because EDA companies need to provide more help.