美国通用汽车(GM)不久前将旗下的电动车款Chevy Volt 降价5,000美元，加深了市场对未来电动车(EV)产业发展的疑虑──究竟电动车是一匹汽车厂商仍在“当活马医”的“死马”，还是那些汽车厂商为了未来发展着想、不得不赔本力推的投资项目？
当然，如果你已经对电动车抱持怀疑态度，应该会很容易认同以下这个说法：降价策略只是又一个苦肉计，希望诱使消费者对到目前为止不受欢迎的电动车改观。它暴露了愚蠢而慷慨的政府补贴──为激励消费者需求，每台电动车可获得7,500美元的联邦免税额，但这显然还不足以推动电动车革命。
无论如何，那些电动车的提倡者已经将降价视为市场自然发展过程的一部分，以为更大量的生产带来更高的效率、也降低了产品价格。值得一提的是，最近这几个月以来，不只是GM打出大降价策略，有不少车厂纷纷传出电动车与插电式混合动力车辆降价消息。
降价的车款包括Ford的电动车版Focus (降4,000美元)、Nissan的电动车Leaf (降价6,400美元)，还有Honda的电动车版Fit (分期月付259美元)；GM先前还提供4,000美元的2013年式Volt车款奖励金，但这个奖励金并未反映在该款电动车的原始价格。
2014 Chevy Volt
Sourcekhwesmc
所以，现在一台电动车到底多少钱？举例来说，降价了6,400美元的Nissan Leaf在扣掉7,500美元的税金之后，总价为2万2,000美元左右，如此一来它的价格与汽油小车是差不多的。GM的Chevy Volt也差不多，最新的折扣价约为3万4,995美元，扣掉税金7,500美元，总价为2万7,495美元，再加上一些各州不同的奖励或退税，最低价可以到2万2,495美元。
第二页：是亏还是赚？Nissan来说说看
第三页：中国做不了廉价电动车？
相关阅读：
• “日德联盟”抢滩电动车电池市场
• 每日一报6月13日：比亚迪分分钟可造出特斯拉电动车？
• 太安静反而危险，电动车该发出什么声音？khwesmc
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是亏还是赚？Nissan来说说看
然而我们不知道的是，这些降价策略有多少是基于成本逐渐低廉的技术、有多少是来自降低营业成本；还是它们仅是那些仰赖政府补贴的车商之人为价格操作与策略变动？更具体地说，用那样的价格卖电动车，GM或Nissan实际上是亏钱还是仍然有赚？这些我们也都不知道。
对此Nissan说明，其6,400美元的降价，原因是将Leaf车款的生产由日本移到美国田纳西州Smyrna，除了省去运费成本，将昂贵的锂离子电池模组生产与电动马达生产移到美国，也节省了不少成本。
而Nissan在今年稍早宣布的降价策略到目前为止也带来一些显著效果，根据统计，该公司7月份的Leaf销售量为1,864台，较去年同期成长了 371.9%，今年1~7月该车款累积销售量达1万1,703台，较2012年同期成长230.3%。据了解，Nissan自3月份(将Leaf生产移至 美国)以来，每月都售出约2,000台Leaf，而1月与2月每月都只售出650台。
khwesmc
第三页：中国做不了廉价电动车？
相关阅读：
• “日德联盟”抢滩电动车电池市场
• 每日一报6月13日：比亚迪分分钟可造出特斯拉电动车？
• 太安静反而危险，电动车该发出什么声音？khwesmc
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中国做不了廉价电动车？
最近全美电动车的销售量也有增加的趋势；美国能源部在7月中指出，插电式电动车(PEV)的销售量从2011年的1万7,000台，在2012年成长至5万2,000台，2013年前六个月全美则售出了约4万台PEV，是2012年同期的两倍以上。
此外来自美国电力驱动运输协会的统计，全美电动车销售量在2013上半年达到2万2,712台，首度超越了混合动力车辆的1万8,335台。虽然这些数据显示了电动车背后的动力，现实状况是全美电动车与插电式混合动力车辆的总销售量，还不到整体汽车销售量的1%。
虽然电动车的拥护者认为汽车产业的发展趋势，已经到达了让电动车成为大众市场车辆的临界点，其他对电动车抱持怀疑态度的人则看到了那仅有1%的美国市场渗透率，认为该市场的发展是让人绝望的缓慢且有严重的缺陷。
在得知GM最新Chevy Volt降价信息时，笔者在一篇报导上读到顾问公司Auto Lectrification执行长、也是参与Volt车款设计的系统架构师Jon Bereisa表示：“人们忘了这是一种全新的技术，当然价格是会逐渐下降…就像你的智能手机，价格也只会降、不会更贵。”
问题是，能让电动车基本功能区块(例如电池)成本下降的技术演进曲线，看起来比任何一种智能手机零组件都来得陡峭。而电动车也不像智能手机，有众多中国无晶圆厂芯片厂商、中国厂商、甚至是庞大的中国市场能催生出50美元的低价产品，美国与日本车商无法指望中国来提升其电动车产量。
khwesmc
编译：Judith Cheng
参考原文： Volt’s Price Drop Isn't Like Smartphone Cost Cut，by Junko Yoshida
相关阅读：
• “日德联盟”抢滩电动车电池市场
• 每日一报6月13日：比亚迪分分钟可造出特斯拉电动车？
• 太安静反而危险，电动车该发出什么声音？khwesmc
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General Motors' announcement last week to cut $5,000 from the price of the Chevy Volt thickens the suspense about the future electric vehicles (EV).
Is the EV a dead horse the auto industry is flogging, or is it the loss-leading investment carmakers have to make if they hope to have a future?
Of course, if you're already an EV skeptic, the narrative plays out easily: The price cut is just one more desperate measure to entice consumers to change their minds about the so-far unpopular EVs. It also exposes the folly of generous federal subsidies meant to prop up consumer demand -- since a $7,500 federal tax credit obviously wasn't big enough to launch an electric revolution.
Those who advocate EVs, however, are already spinning the price reduction as part of the natural market process, in which greater volume in production spawns greater efficiencies and lower prices.
The important thing to note is that GM is not alone in introducing drastic price cuts in recent months. Noting a succession of manufacturers that have chopped prices on their EVs and plug-in hybrids, Design News reported:
Those include Ford's Focus EV ($4,000 cut), Nissan's Leaf ($6,400), and Honda's Fit EV ($259-a-month lease). GM also previously offered an incentive of $4,000 on the 2013 Volt, but that incentive was not reflected in the car's initial price.
So, as it stands now, how much does an EV cost?
With the $6,400 price drop, Nissan's Leaf, for example, is now priced at around $22,000 after a $7,500 federal tax credit. That, in effect, is said to make the Leaf almost comparable to gasoline-powered compact cars.
The story for GM's Chevy Volt is similar. The 2014 Volt will sell for $34,995 with the latest price cut. Subtract the $7,500 federal credit and the sticker drops to $27,495. Further incentives, such as state rebates, could take it as low as $22,495 in some states, according to Design News.
What we don't know, however, is how much of the price cuts come from cheaper technology and lower business costs. Are they simply driven by artificial price maneuvering and political moves on the part of subsidy-dependent carmakers?
More specifically, at these prices, are GM or Nissan actually losing or making money every EV they sell? We don't know the answer to that, either.
Nissan explains that its savings come from moving Leaf production to Smyrna, Tenn., from Japan, contributing to Nissan's $6,400 price cut early this year. Beyond saving costs on shipping, Nissan explained that moving production of the expensive lithium ion battery module and the electric motor in-house in Tenn. has saved money, too.
The price drop, clearly, has been working for Nissan thus far, as it is selling more Leafs this year. According to the company, Nissan Leaf sales in July were 1,864 units, up 371.9 percent over last year. Year-to-date sales are 11,703, marking an increase of 230.3 percent over the same period in 2012.
Indeed, Nissan has been selling consistently about 2,000 units per month since March (when the production of Leaf in Tenn. moved in full swing), in contrast to January and February this year when the company sold only about 650 units a month.
There is no doubt about an overall sales increase of EVs in the United States.
In mid-July, the US Dept. of Energy pointed out that plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales tripled from about 17,000 in 2011 to about 52,000 in 2012. During the first six months of 2013, Americans bought some 40,000 plug-in electric vehicles (PEV), more than twice as many as during the same period in 2012.
Further, according to Environmental News Network, the Electric Drive Transportation Association has released figures showing that US electric cars outsold their hybrid counterparts in the first half of 2013 by 22,712 to 18,335.
EVs ain't smartphones
While these data points help illustrate the momentum behind EVs, the reality is that combined sales of EVs and plug-in hybrids still total less than 1 percent of cars sold in the US.
While EV advocates see in that momentum the automotive industry's play to reach a critical point to turn EV into a mass market car, EV skeptics find the 1 percent penetration in overall sales of the US market hopelessly slow and seriously flawed.
In reading a number of media reports about GM's latest price cut on Chevy Volt, I came acroos an article by Automotive News in which Jon Bereisa, CEO of consulting firm Auto Lectrification and the systems architect for the Volt during its creation, was quoted:
People forget that this was brand-new technology. Of course the price will fall... The price of your smartphone doesn't go up. It goes down.
Well, the problem, unlike smartphones, is the technology curve to bring down the cost of basic technology building blocks (such as batteries) for EVs looks so much steeper than any smartphone component. Unlike smartphones, with which Chinese fabless chip companies, China-based OEMs, and the Chinese market have played a major role in creating the $50 smartphone boom, US and Japanese carmakers can't count on China to boost their numbers.
相关阅读：
• “日德联盟”抢滩电动车电池市场
• 每日一报6月13日：比亚迪分分钟可造出特斯拉电动车？
• 太安静反而危险，电动车该发出什么声音？khwesmc
责编：Quentin
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