为芯片市场把脉，已回归健康成长？

市场研究机构Semiconductor Intelligence分析师Bill Jewell日前表示，如云霄飞车般跌宕起伏的全球芯片市场已经回归健康成长；该机构将 2014年全球芯片市场成长率预测值，由先前的12%提升为15%，不过仍将该市场2013年成长率预测值维持在6%。 Jewell整理了来自数个市场分析机构的预测数据，观察到各家对于2013年芯片市场成长率的意见大不相同，最低有半导体贸易统计组织(WSTS)所预测的2.1%，最高则是Objective Analysis所预测的10%以上；而该市场2014年成长率的预测值范围更广，最低从IDC所预测的2.9%，到最高同样是来自Objective Analysis的20%以上。 各家市场研究机构对2014年芯片市场成长率预测的平均值为9.4%，甚至高于2004年至2010年间的半导体产业复合年成长率(CAGR) 5.8%。

2013年中各家分析机构对半导体市场成长率测值比较
Source：Semiconductor Intelligence9hvesmc

Jewell预期，芯片市场将会再有两季取得平均约6%的季成长率表现；而他表示，根据几家芯片大厂的第三季预测，以上情况是会实现的。不过他并没有考虑到市场传得沸沸扬扬的28纳米芯片可能供应过剩问题，而智能手机市场已经越来越饱和。 EETimes美国版根据WSTS的数据计算，近十年芯片市场在第三季与第四季的季成长率，平均各自为8.7%与-1.7%；也就是说，预估第三季芯片销售额约将达 809.9亿美元，第四季则为796.1美元，全年度芯片销售总额为3,057.0亿美元，年成长率是温和的4.8%。 根据笔者对市场分析的经验，除非你正好身处于一个景气大萧条或是大成长的中期，预测数据几乎不可做到2或3个季之后；而当然你也不会知道何时会是景气发展的中期，因此我认为2014年市场变化仍然是个谜。 Semiconductor Intelligence的Jewell则预期，2014年全球经济景气将有所改善，从而推动芯片市场成长；他引述国际货币基金组织(IMF)在7月时发表的预测数据，指2013年全球实际国内生产总额(GPD)成长率估计为3.1%，2014年该数字则为3.8%。 他表示，虽然中国市场GDP成长率预测值8%低于先前预测的10%，其他新兴市场的表现将抵销中国的需求衰退，包括东欧、俄罗斯、印度、拉丁美洲与东南亚各国。

全球GDP成长率预测
Source：IMF via Semiconductor Intelligence9hvesmc

编译：Judith Cheng 参考原文： Chip Market Back to Healthy Growth? by Peter Clarke

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{pagination} The roller-coaster global market for chips is back to "healthy" growth, according to analyst Bill Jewell at Semiconductor Intelligence LLC, based in Dallas. The company has increased its estimate for 2014 annual growth to 15 percent from the previously given 12 percent but is sticking to 6 percent annual growth in 2013. Jewell has collated the forecasts of several market analysis firms (in the chart below) and observed that there is a diverse range of opinion for growth in 2013, ranging from 2.1 percent from World Semiconductor Trade Statistics to "up to 10 percent" from Objective Analysis. The spread for 2014 is even larger, ranging from 2.9 percent given out by IDC to "over 20 percent" from the bullish Objective Analysis. The average for the 2014 forecasts is 9.4 percent, Jewell tells us, which is much greater than the long-term compound annual growth rate for the semiconductor market, which was 5.8 percent over the period 2004 to 2010. Jewell's analysis does depend on two more good quarters averaging about 6 percent sequential growth, which he argues is achievable given the Q3 forecasts of leading chip vendors. However, that does not seem to take into account some of the rumblings about an oversupply of 28-nm chips and more generally in the smartphone sector. (See TSMC Forecasts Tepid Q3.) According to calculations made by EE Times based on WSTS data, the 10-year average of sequential growth in Q3 and Q4 is 8.7 percent and -1.7 percent, respectively. This would produce global chip sales in Q3 of about $80.99 billion and in Q4 of $79.61 billion. The full-year total of $305.70 billion would represent an increase of a more modest 4.8 percent. My experience of market analysis is that it is almost impossible to call anything much beyond two or three quarters unless you are in the middle of a big recession or boom, and of course you never know when you are in the middle, so for me 2014 remains a mystery. Jewell at Semiconductor Intelligence argues that an improving global economy in 2014 will be the driver and references the International Monetary Fund's July forecast, which sees global real GDP growth going up from 3.1 percent in 2013 to 3.8 percent in 2014. He argues that while China's GDP growth at 8 percent is below the past 10 percent average, other emerging markets are stepping up to replace the Chinese demand, including Eastern Europe, Russia, India, Latin America, and elsewhere in southeast Asia.

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