数字医疗总有一天会让医院被淘汰？

在一场由美国半导体协会(SIA)举办的一场年度餐会上，一位领导级心脏科医师暨医疗研究学者表示，数字医疗可能会在某天让医院被淘汰。这位《The Creative Destruction of Medicine》一书的作者 Eric Topol 指出，人体内与周遭的传感器将实现实时性的、为个人量身打造的“移动医疗”；虽然实现的那一天还很遥远，但却是非常实际可行的。 “我们的医疗技术还远远落后，但有一些大事件正要发生；”Topol对会场数百位芯片产业高层主管表示：“我们甚至还没开始利用摩尔定律(Moore's Law)或是低成本的基因定序(gene sequencing)，但那些已经开始发生，而且将永远改变医疗照护领域。” 在众多仍刚崛起的先进技术中，Topol展示了一款名为AliveCor的装置，能将他的心电图实时显示在智能手机上：“你能在3万英尺高空上自己诊断出心脏病──然后我会收到病患的电子邮件，问说‘我的心律不整，现在该怎么办？’” Topol还展示了加州理工大学(CalTech)所做的动物研究结果，一种放在血管内的纳米级传感器能侦测到细胞在心脏病发生前的一些症兆：“你能在心脏病发生之前的几天或是几周察觉到异状，例如收到一个特殊的警告电话铃声…而希望这不会把你吓到心脏病发！”他打趣道。

Eric Topol展示智能手机上显示的实时心电图
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基因定序能达到个人化，因此能针对个别恶性肿瘤患者提供更有效的癌症治疗方法。Topol对与会芯片业者表示：“我们对于疾病还停留在1960年代的观点，所有与医疗相关的事物都停在那个时候；但你们所提供的技术将会改变一切。” 美国半导体设备大厂应用材料(Applied Materials)董事长Michael Splinter则表示，晶体管是“当代最伟大的发明”，在他40年的职业生涯中，芯片业者将关键组件由10微米微缩到了10纳米，使IC产业成为“地球史上最具生产力的产业”。他获得了SIA的年度Robert Noyce奖。 “几乎所有的系统都能藉由IC运作得更好。”Splinter针对那些预测摩尔定律已到尽头的预测提出反驳：“我们将会继续找到新方法来提升操作数件的密度， 因为这个世界需要它们──我并没有看到有什么已经走到尽头。”今年已经64岁的他，说他是在18岁仍是大学新鲜人时，第一次摸到晶体管。 即将接任SIA主席的IBM研发资深副总裁John Kelly III则认为，产业界将创造来自“移动、云端、社交网络、物联网，以及聚合以上这些技术的新商机，产生我们前所未见的庞大资料”，他表示：“我们仍在某个伟大时代重现的开端。” 那天，笔者被那些产业菁英们的发言，以及餐会上的烤羊排、巧克力慕斯、白葡萄酒陶醉，离开现场时还觉得飘飘然…但在几天之后的清醒时刻，我仍认为CMOS制程微缩在10纳米之下将会面临到前所未有的挑战，而到目前为止似乎并没有太大突破。 但无论如何，尽管在过去21年担任高科技产业媒体编辑的职业生涯中，我仅是一个站在旁边看着半导体产业进步的见证人，我仍感到万分自豪。而今年已经56岁的我，已经准备好让那些实时性纳米级传感器来监测我的心脏了！ 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 编译：Judith Cheng 参考英文原文：Digital Medicine Could Eradicate Hospitals，by Rick Merritt

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{pagination} Digital Medicine Will Reshape Hospitals Rick Merritt, SiliconValley Bureau Chief SAN JOSE, Calif. — Digital healthcare will reshape hospitals, says a leading cardiologist and medical researcher. That's perhaps the brightest of many big promises from the ongoing revolution in semiconductors speakers shared at an annual industry gala here. Sensors in and around the body could enable real-time, mobile medicine tailored to the individual, said Eric Topol, author of The Creative Destruction of Medicine, speaking at the annual and routinely inspiring awards dinner of the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). The promise is far from the reality today, but it's still very real, he said. "Were so far behind in healthcare, but there's something big going on," Topol told several hundred chip executives. "We haven’t even begun to leverage Moore's Law or low-cost gene sequencing, but that’s going to happen, and it will change healthcare forever." Among a flood of still-emerging advances, Topol demonstrated the AliveCor device, displaying his cardiograph in real-time on his smartphone. "You can diagnose a heart attack at 30,000 feet -- I get emails from patients saying 'I have an arrhythmia, now what do I do?' " He showed the results of animal research at CalTech on nano-sensors in the blood stream that can detect cells that are precursors of a heart attack. "You could know days or weeks before having a heart attack, and get a special heart-attack ring tone that hopefully won't give you a heart attack," he quipped. Topol showed his real-time cardiograpm on a smartphone. Genome sequencing promises personalized and thus more effective cancer treatments for tumors that vary with each patient. "We've been stuck in a 1960s view of the disease. Everything in medicine is stuck in the 1960s, but your technology will change that," he told chipmakers. Michael Splinter, chairman of Applied Materials, called the underlying transistor "the greatest invention of the modern age." Chipmakers shrunk the key device from 10 microns to 10 nanometers in his 40-year career, making it "the most productive industry in the history of the planet," he said, picking up the SIA's annual Robert Noyce award. "Almost every system can be made better with ICs," said Splinter who advised against making predictions that Moore's Law scaling will end. "We will always come up with new ways to increase the density of computing because the world wants and needs it -- I don't see the end of anything," said the 64-year old who made his first transistor while a college freshman at the age of 18. The industry will spawn "huge new business opportunities from mobile, cloud, social, the Internet of Things, and the convergence of these technologies, creating data sizes we've never seen before," said John Kelly III, incoming SIA chairman and senior vice president of research at IBM. "We are just at the beginning of something great again." I walked out of the annual event a few inches off the ground, buoyed up by the rhetoric, the roast lamb, chocolate mousse, and chardonnay. Now, a few sober days later, I still think CMOS scaling faces unprecedented challenges getting to sub-10nm, and as far as I have heard there's nothing much beyond. That said, I'm damned proud to be even just a witness, standing on the sidelines for the past 21 years, watching the progress in this industry. And at 56 I'm ready for one of those real-time nano-sensors to monitor my heart.