日本消费性电子厂商正在康复中吗？他们最坏的日子已经过去了？有鉴于日圆汇率在上一季仍扮演让众多日本业者业绩成长的推手，要说日本消费性电子业者已经恢复往日荣景，恐怕还嫌太早。在此同时，另一个让金融圈持续关注的迫切问题是，包括 Sony 与 Panasonic 在内的日本消费性电子大厂将在多短的时间内从消费性电子领域脱身并且转型？
Sony 与 Panasonic 日前公布了最新的财报预测数字，让众家财经分析师纷纷加入了赞扬Panasonic的行列中，同时放弃了 Sony ──在7月至9月达到193亿日圆(1.97亿美元)净损的 Sony 近日发出警告，表示该公司恐怕无法达到先前的全年营利目标，目前预计全年度营业利润将下滑26%，来到1,700亿日圆(17.3亿美元)。
至于Panasonic则预期截止于3月31日的本财务年度营业利润将成长68%，来到2,700亿日圆，该公司估计全年度净利润将达到1,000亿日圆(10.2亿美元)；而Panasonic在上一个财务年度的亏损达到7,542亿日圆(76.8亿美元)。
Panasonic的转亏为盈是拜大刀阔斧的组织重整之赐，该公司放弃了电浆电视以及智能手机业务，并将部分资产出售，将80%的医疗保健部门股份以1,650亿日圆(16.8亿美元)价格出售给美国投资业者KKR & Co。
在此同时，Panasonic表示其住宅与汽车电子业绩呈现成长，不久前还宣布该公司对电动车厂Tesla的锂电池供应量将大幅增加，由两年前累计至今年底的2,000万颗电池芯，在2017年将达到近20亿颗。而多家分析师都认为，Panasonic优于预期的财报数字，主要归功于该公司选择远离消费性电子市场。
在Sony这厢，分析师们纷纷责难该公司对已经呈现赤字的电视业务获利预测下修；Sony日前表示，该公司电视业务在4~6月于三年来首度呈现获利52亿日圆(5,300万美元)之后，本季又出现了93亿(9,500万美元)日圆的营业亏损。
视频摄影机与个人计算机业绩衰弱也对Sony带来冲击，不过该公司的智能手机业务却情势看涨──Sony维持了对本会计年度智能手机销售量4,200万支的预测，该公司在7~9月的智能手机销售量则为1,000万支。此外Sony对视频游戏机业务前景也仍保持高度期望，公司最新的 PlayStation 4 游戏机已经于11月上市。
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
本文下一页：Sony与Panasonic的未来，哪些业务必须抛弃？
相关阅读：
• 松下宣布将于2014年退出电浆电视业务
• 当电子业务成为索尼的拖累……
• 索尼，你还是消费性电子企业吗？JTDesmc
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对 于Sony与Panasonic的未来，市场观察家的普遍看法是，谁能果断地尽快抛弃电视业务，谁就能越快让业务发展走向正轨。也有不少人对于Sony首席执 行官平井一夫(Kazuo Hirai)所谓的“三管齐下”策略──聚焦于移动设备、影像与游戏机技术──感到质疑。但也不是所有人都同意市场以上看法。
Radio Free Mobile的分析师Richard Windsor不久前就发表一篇博客文章，认为平井的三管齐下策略“绝对是妙招”；但Windsor也指出：“真正的问题在于他要花多长时间才能实现其愿景，或是不耐烦的股东们是否会在他手下将公司给卖掉。”
Windsor形容，平井的愿景是：“将Sony由笨重的企业体，转型为兼具软硬件能力的整合性生态系统；这是正确的，但却非常难执行，将花很长的时间才能达到最佳效果。”他认为，拥有从电子到媒体等业务的Sony，将会是唯一有机会建构数字化生态系统的日本厂商。
不 过，实际上除了Sony虚弱不振的电视、影像与PC业绩，该公司第二季亏损主要来自其电影业务，当季营业亏损达到了178亿日圆(1.81万美元)；在上 一年度同期，该业务则是获利79亿日圆(8,000万美元)。Sony指出，这主要原因是因为该公司的部分电影作品票房不佳。
虽然Windsor将Sony的电影业务大幅亏损视为“运气不佳”，但该公司的电影与音乐业务恐怕将再次成为被严格监督的目标──特别是Sony的大股东Daniel Loeb稍早之前提案，Sony应该将娱乐事业独立IPO。
而 Panasonic这边仍值得观察的是，其非消费性电子业务──汽车、电池、住宅与工业等──是否会持续在未来几年成长。对此Windsor批 评，Panasonic削减成本已经到了“匪夷所思”的地步，他认为：“Panasonic在技术领域已经走到尽头，也许该公司会赚钱，但再也不会有什么伟大成就；这将在短期之内有助于股价上扬，但长期看来，该公司是在走偏门。”
本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载
编译：Judith Cheng
参考英文原文：Sony & Panasonic: Out of the Woods?，by Junko Yoshida
相关阅读：
• 松下宣布将于2014年退出电浆电视业务
• 当电子业务成为索尼的拖累……
• 索尼，你还是消费性电子企业吗？JTDesmc
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Sony & Panasonic: Out of the Woods?
Junko Yoshida
MADISON, Wis. — Are Japanese consumer electronics companies on the mend? Is the worst over? Considering that the Japanese yen worked as a major tailwind for many Japanese companies in the last quarter, it's probably still too early to declare the Japanese consumer electronics industry's full recovery.
Meanwhile, a more pressing question the financial community keeps asking is how soon Japanese electronics giants such as Sony and Panasonic will get out of the CE business and turn themselves into something else.
Contrasting full-year financial forecasts issued by the two companies -- Panasonic and Sony -- this week tell an intriguing story that got many financial analysts to suddenly jump on the bandwagon in praising Panasonic, while ditching Sony.
Sony on Thursday, Oct. 31, warned that the company will not meet previous full-year profit targets, after sliding to a net loss of 19.3 billion yen (US$197 million) for July to September. Sony now sees its full-year operating profit falling 26 percent to 170 billion yen ($1.73 billion).
In contrast, Panasonic now expects operating profit to climb 68 percent to 270 billion yen in the fiscal year ending March 31. It sees net profit coming in at 100 billion yen ($1.02 billion), compared with a year-earlier loss of 754.2 billion yen ($7.68 billion).
Panasonic's turnaround is a result of a round of heavy restructuring. The Japanese company pulled out of plasma TVs and smartphones. The company also sold assets, agreeing recently to the sale of 80 percent of its healthcare unit to US buyout firm KKR & Co for 165 billion yen ($1.68 billion).
Meanwhile, Panasonic claims that sales of residential and automotive electronics are growing. The Osaka-based company also announced earlier this week that it would sharply increase its supply of lithium batteries to Tesla to nearly 2 billion cells in the four years to 2017 -- a huge jump from the 200 million cells it is supposed to have provided over the two years to this December.
Many analysts attribute Panasonic's better-than-expected results to the shift in the company's business away from consumer electronics.
In contrast, many analysts blamed Sony's falling profit outlook on its TV business, which is now back in the red. Sony said Thursday that its TV business went back into a 9.3 billion yen ($95 million) operating loss, after the company's TV division showed its first quarterly profit in three years in April-June with a 5.2 billion yen ($53 million) operating profit.
The weak sales of video cameras and personal computers are also hurting Sony. Sony's smartphone business, however, is believed to be holding up in the latest quarter. According to the Japanese company, it still expects to sell 42 million smartphones this fiscal year, unchanged from previous guidance. The company sold 10 million in the three months between July and September.
Meanwhile, Sony is still holding high hopes for its video games business. The company is scheduled to launch new PlayStation 4 game consoles in November.
A popular view of Sony and Panasonic says that those who decisively ditch the TV business sooner would restore the health of their business more quickly.
Many are also calling into question Sony CEO Kazuo Hirai's so-called "three-pronged strategy" -- focused on mobile devices, imaging technology, and gaming.
But not everyone agrees with that analysis.
Richard Windsor, chartered financial analyst and a blogger at Radio Free Mobile, posted Friday a counter-argument, saying Hirai's three-pronged strategy is "absolutely bang-on." But Windsor also noted that "the real question is how long does he have to realize that vision or will impatient shareholders sell the company out from underneath him?"
Windsor described Hirai's vision as "to turn Sony from a lumbering conglomerate into an integrated ecosystem play with both hardware and software." He noted, "This is the right vision but it is incredibly difficult to execute and it will take a long time in the best instance."
Windsor holds the view that with its assets from electronics to media, "Sony is the only Japanese company that has a chance being relevant in the digital ecosystem world."
However, it is true that beyond the company's weak TV, imaging, and PC sales, Sony's second-quarter loss was mainly on its movie business, which posted an operating loss of 17.8 billion yen ($181 million) in the quarter, reversing from a profit of 7.9 billion yen ($80 million) a year earlier. Sony cited disappointing box office performance of some of its films.
While Windsor brushed off the big loss in the movie business as "bad luck," Sony's movie and music businesses will come under scrutiny once again, as hedge-fund investor Daniel Loeb earlier this year called for a spinoff of the entertainment division through an initial public offering.
As for Panasonic, it remains to be seen if its non-consumer electronics business -- automotive, battery, residential, industrial, and others -- will keep growing over the next few years.
Radio Free Mobile's Windsor criticized Panasonic for "cost cutting its way into obscurity." He wrote:
Panasonic is finished in the technology sector and while it may be profitable it will never see greatness again.
This will give some short-term share price performance but in the longer run the company will drift sideways.
责编：Quentin
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