中国是西方电子业的平行宇宙

当我身在中国，我常觉得自己掉进一个平行宇宙；但更糟的是，一旦我回到熟悉的美国，却感觉到更重的失落。这是因为我在产业趋势、设计需求以及市场领导厂商等方面恰好有通常不适用中国的西方主义偏见；但尽管今日的电子产业已经如此全球化，某些事物还是有区域上的差异。 平板电脑市场是说明这种情况的一个好例子。根据市场研究机构IDC的统计，2013年全球平板电脑出货量为2.171亿台；在此同时，中国当地的研究报告指 出，2013年中国平板电脑出货量达到9,000万台。这意味着中国在全球平板电脑市场的占有率达到40%；而中国也是全球最大的平板电脑市场，中国在大量生产平板电脑的同时也消费它们。 虽然苹果(Apple)的iPad与三星(Samsung)的Galaxy Tab是全球公认的两个最大平板电脑品牌(不包括中国市场)，但实际上中国的OEM / ODM厂商──在西方市场几乎看不到──才是全球平板电脑市场的主宰；而因为如此，中国的平板电脑市场为当地的应用处理器供货商创造了庞大的商机。 不过在两年前，我记得似乎有数不清的中国无晶圆厂芯片设计公司都在为平板电脑应用设计类似的ARM核心处理器；但当我最近与珠海全志科技 (Allwinner Technology)的市场营销经理Eva Wu见面时，她却澄清：“在2012年，中国有十家应用处理器供货商都在竞逐平板电脑市场；不过到2014年初，主导平板电脑市场的应用处理器供货商只剩三家──全志、瑞芯微(RockChip)以及联发科(MediaTek)。” 我总认为中国应用处理器供货商之间的竞争淘汰是必然的，迟早会发生，但没想到这么快就有如此剧烈的变化。从下面根据中国业界数据所做成的表格，可以看到中国应用处理器市场的概况；2014年的市场估 计值显示来自台湾的联发科有明显成长趋势，出货量可增加一倍，进一步稳固在中国市场的地位。

中国平板电脑应用处理器供货商出货量比较
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西方业者很容易会忽视中国市场发生的事情，自以为是地认为：“那些人都只是二线厂商。”也许是如此，但笔者认为，了解你眼中的“二线”竞争对手其实很重要，这些厂商有的非常有野心，而且往上爬的速度很快，它们并不想一直只待在二线。 全志科技的Wu就很自豪地对我说，该公司是第一家通过Android 4.4 Google Mobile Service认证的应用处理器供货商，这意味着全志应用处理器具备全球公认的稳定性能：“必须要通过该认证测试，才能进入美国市场；像是 Walmart、BestBuy等大型零售业者，不会接受没有通过该认证的产品。”

中国的二线平板电脑应用处理器供货商
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Wu并指出，全志的应用处理器也获得一线平板电脑品牌的采用，例如Sony的平板电脑投影机，以及三星为打印机所设计的平板电脑。 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 本文下一页：中国的机顶盒芯片平行宇宙

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• 可穿戴产品市场规模将超过平板电脑？
• 2014年2月国产平板电脑市场调查分析
• 2014年2月中国Android平板电脑市场现状分析Vocesmc

{pagination} 中国的机顶盒芯片平行宇宙 中国的机顶盒市场也是另一个平行宇宙；在中国，所谓的OTT (over-the-top)机顶盒市场在阿里巴巴等网络业者积极推广在线视频服务而发展蓬勃，这一切要回溯到去年第三季。全志的Wu表示，OTT机顶盒市场成长快速，中国当地销售量一个月最多可达到200万台。 对中国消费者来说，有三种方法可接收数字视频服务：一是透过智能电视，但一台要价约1万元人民币(约1,630美元)；二是透过OTT机顶盒，价格在200~300元人民币(约33~49美元)之间；另外一种则是透过 可插在电视机上的Android平台USB电视 棒，售价约100~200元人民币(约16~33美元)。 在平板电脑SoC与IP机顶盒SoC之间做比较，显然包括CPU与GPU等关键子系统已经是共享的；全志就是在中国芯片供货商中，利用原有的平板电脑芯片进军蓬勃OTT机上盒市场的例子之一。而当然，回到美国，有线电视机顶盒芯片供货商如博通(Broadcom)，对机顶盒市场会有非常不同的看法。 笔者不久前与博通资深技术总监Stephen Palm见面，他就指出今日西方市场上的机顶盒对芯片的需求，并不是目前移动设备处理器有能力因应的。号称拥有机顶盒芯片所需的各种变量条件接取系统以及硬件安全密码：“我们的机顶盒SoC支持85种安全通讯协议；”Palm表示：“对内容提供商来说，提供订户安全且独特的视频内容是非常重要的。”机顶盒芯片必须要通过安全技术供应商提出的强力规则。 再者，Palm表示机顶盒SoC需要支持各种不同的视频编码规格，从 MPEG2、MPEG4到H.265：“这对移动设备芯片来说并不是必备功能。”这虽然有道理，但该类功能强大且安全性高的机顶盒芯片，对中国等地似乎认为视频服务应该是免费的消费者来说，有点“功能过剩”。 那博通是否想过针对中国市场推出“精简版”的机顶盒芯片呢？针对这个问题，Palm礼貌地回避了，只表示：“我们不讨论博通要不要进军某个市场的问题。”显然，对于某些在版权保护问题上“比较不那么关注”的区域，这个问题是很敏感的；这些区域有如存在于另一个平行宇宙，倾向于忽视西方对版权保护的敏感度。 我明白西方芯片供货商为何要回避那些低利润的市场，因为游戏规则似乎是大不相同；但我所疑惑的是，当两个平行宇宙之间的隔膜出现裂缝，技术开始往两个不同方向渗流时，那些西方芯片业者将何去何从？ 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 编译：Judith Cheng 参考英文原文：China's Parallel Universe，by Junko Yoshida

相关阅读：
• 可穿戴产品市场规模将超过平板电脑？
• 2014年2月国产平板电脑市场调查分析
• 2014年2月中国Android平板电脑市场现状分析Vocesmc

{pagination} China's Parallel Universe Junko Yoshida, Chief International Correspondent Tablets and set-top markets remain regional SHENZHEN, China — When I'm in China, I often feel as though I've dropped into a parallel universe. But worse, once I get back to the good old US of A, I feel even more lost. This is because I run smack-dab into Western-centric preconceived views on market trends, design requirements, and market leaders that don't often apply to China. As global as the electronics industry has become today, certain things remain distinctly regional. In my mind, the tablet market is a good example. For the full calendar year 2013, worldwide tablet shipments totaled 217.1 million units, according to IDC. Meanwhile, China's tablet shipments during the same period are said to be 90 million units, according to China's local reports. That, in fact, translates into China holding a staggering 40 percent share. China is in fact the world's biggest market for tablets. China makes 'em, China consumes 'em. While Apple's iPads and Samsung's Galaxy tablets are the two most recognized brands everywhere (including China), the truth is that Chinese OEMs and ODMs -- almost invisible in the Western markets -- are dominating the global tablet market. The dominance of Chinese OEMs and ODMs is, in turn, creating a huge opportunity for China's application processor companies in the tablet market. I remember just a short two years ago, a seemingly countless number of China fabless chip companies were all designing similar ARM-core based apps processors for tablets. When I recently sat down with Eva Wu, marketing manager of Allwinner Technology in Zhuhai, she set the record straight. "Yes," she told me, "there were 10 apps processor vendors in China, all competing for the tablet market in 2012. But by early 2014, those dominating the tablet market are now pretty much down to only three companies -- Allwinner, RockChip, and MediaTek." I have always felt that a winnowing-down among China's apps processor vendors was necessary and would happen sooner or later. But I didn't expect such a drastic change so quickly. The following table, compiled by Chinese industry sources, is a snapshot of China's tablet apps processor market. The 2014 market forecast shows a clear upward trend for Taiwan's MediaTek, doubling shipments and holding its own in China. Tablet Application Processor Vendors for Chinese Tablets Source: Compilations of China's industry data It's easy for the Western players to dismiss what's happening in China, on the presumption that "those guys are playing only in the Tier 2 market." Know your tier 2 players Maybe so, but I find that knowing your Tier 2 players (the guy below you on the ladder) is vitally important. Some of those players are very ambitious and climbing fast. They have no intention to remain Tier 2 forever. Allwinner's Wu proudly told me that Allwinner was the first AP vendor to achieve the Android 4.4 Google Mobile Service certification. Noting that the certification tells the world the stability of Allwinner's apps processor, Wu said, "You have to pass the certification test in order to play in the US market. US retailers like Walmart or BestBuy wouldn't accept the products without it." Know your Tier 2 players in China's tablet market. Wu noted that Allwinner's apps processors are getting designed into Tier 1 tablets -- such as Sony's tablet projectors and Samsung's tablet designed for printers. Next page: Parallel universe for STB SoCs Parallel universe for STB SoCs Meanwhile, the same parallel universe characterizes the set-top box world. Over here in China, the so-called over-the-top (OTT) market has exploded as Internet companies like Alibaba have gone whole-hog with video services over the Internet. This dates back to the third quarter last year. The OTT market is growing fast, according to Wu, with as many as 2 million OTT boxes sold in a month at its peak. For Chinese consumers, there are three ways to receive digital video services. They're available on smart TVs, which cost around 10,000 RMB (US$1,630). Another route is OTT boxes, priced between 200 and 300 RMB ($33 to $49). The last option is an Android USB stick that you can plug into a TV, selling for between 100 and 200 RMB ($16 to $33). To Chinese vendors comparing tablet SoCs with IP set-top SoCs, it's clear that key subsystems -- including CPU and GPU -- are already common. Allwinner is among many Chinese vendors leveraging their tablet SoCs to enter the exploding OTT market. Of course, back in the USA, leading cable set-top chip vendors like Broadcom have a very different view of the set-top box market. When I chatted with Stephen Palm, senior technical director at Broadband Technology Group, this week, he pointed out that requirements in today's set-tops in the West are nothing like what current mobile SoCs are capable of handling. With all the variant conditional access systems and hardware security keys required in the set-top SoC, "Our set-top box SoC is supporting 85 security protocols," Palm said. "For content owners, it's vitally important that their content is safely and uniquely delivered to subscribers' homes." STB SoCs are required to pass robustness rules imposed by security vendors. Further, STB SoCs need to support a number of different video codecs ranging from MPEG2 to MPEG4 and H.265, Broadcom's Palm pointed out. "That's not necessarily the case with mobile SoCs." Point well taken. But such robust and secure STB SoCs are still overkill for regions like China where every consumer seems to believe video services are free. Does Broadcom ever think about selling a stripped-down version of its chips in China? Palm politely declined to answer the question, saying, "I'm not going to get into the discussion of which market Broadcom will or won't enter." Obviously, "regions that seem to care a little less" about copy protection represent a touchy subject. Because such regions exist in a parallel universe, they tend to overlook Western sensibilities about copyright and copy protection. I certainly understand why chip vendors in the West avoid these low-margin markets where the rules of the game seem so different. But I wonder what will happen to Western chip companies when the membrane between our parallel universes springs a leak, and technologies start to trickle in both directions.