IBM去哪儿？内部员工有话说

有不少分析师以及IBM的前员工、现任员工都认为，该公司应该要卖掉晶圆厂、退出芯片生产业务，并说GlobalFoundries是最有可能的买主。到底IBM该何去何从？在接下来的系列文章中，笔者将分三个部分来探讨这个话题；第一部份是来自员工的看法。 一 位在IBM集团担任主管的资深员工表示，该公司芯片业务仍具策略性，而且──至少在目前──仍然健全；不过他不愿对稍早前媒体报导IBM有意出售晶圆厂的 消息直接提供评论。虽然IBM到底该不该继续扮演芯片制造业者这个角色，在公司内部与外部仍争议不断，有一件事是公认的：数十年来，IBM一直是半导体领域的领导者，投入先进技术开发并推动产业向前迈进。

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有 人认为，IBM尽管有技术实力，还是应该要朝无晶圆厂模式发展；这些意见指出，该公司这几年对旗下两座晶圆厂投资不足，芯片业务已经有好一段时间与IBM 的经营模式不合。IBM的Power服务器业务一直是该公司自己生产芯片的主要动机，但该业务去年表现低迷，该公司也坦承难以恢复；业务衰退主因来自于在 市场上败给了AMD专为视频游戏机打造ASIC的高产量、高利润生意。

IBM年度芯片业务收入对比（单位：10亿）
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至于在人的方面，IBM芯片部门的员工表示，他们已经 因为经历多次裁员而饱受惊吓，也许卖掉芯片部门能让他们摆脱生活在恐惧中的阴霾。“裁员一波波发生，各种传言到处飞──我已经历过太多次；”一位在去年7 月被裁的IBM前员工表示：“在一个人们总是担忧未来的环境工作实在太苦，一点意思都没有。” 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 第2页：于是，有人决定离开… 第3页：分析师怎么说？

相关阅读：
• 晶圆代工业出现史上最长排队潮
• 无视出售芯片业务传言，IBM升级RF芯片制程技术
• IBM开放POWER8系统授权，欲做大数据界的ARMCMCesmc

{pagination} 于是，有人决定离开… 要求匿名的一位IBM现任员工回忆，有个前同事在2013年干脆请了一个礼拜的无薪事假专心写履历，然后跳槽去高通(Qualcomm)：“我们有不少人被高通挖角。”一位前IBM员工则说，有一些 IBM人后来跳槽去英特尔(Intel)，支持该公司刚起步的晶圆代工业务；还有另一位则指出，很多前同事现在为AMD与飞思卡尔(Freescale) 工作。 最近GlobalFoundries表示，该公司已经聘请了200名具经验的工程师与经理人，以支持从 2014年5月至12月的Fab 8量产时程。另一位在去年7月被裁的IBM前员工抱怨，IBM并没有投资好让晶圆厂跟上时代，而且在与员工沟通经营计划方面表现差劲：“他们真的一点也不 像过去那样坦率；”他指出，Burlington晶圆厂被当成以最少投资获取最大利益的摇钱树。 另一位IBM前员工则指出： “他们就是不投资晶圆厂，以至于到了非得卖掉它们或是退出该业务的地步；”还有别的前IBM人说，打击员工士气的更大问题是该公司已经跟不上时代：“他们还抱着1950年代的终身雇佣与院士制度不放，希望员工为企业鞠躬尽瘁；我不认为现在的人愿意签这种工作契约，他们会把他们最好的东西拿走然后出去靠自己。” 曾率领华生(Watson)超级计算机团队的人工智能专家David Ferrucci，就在 2013年被挖角，离开IBM加入对冲基金Bridgewater Associates，为该公司开发客制化的人工智能算法。

IBM年度芯片业务收入与全球排名，包括内部消耗与外售芯片（单位：10亿）
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本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 第3页：分析师怎么说？

相关阅读：
• 晶圆代工业出现史上最长排队潮
• 无视出售芯片业务传言，IBM升级RF芯片制程技术
• IBM开放POWER8系统授权，欲做大数据界的ARMCMCesmc

{pagination} 分析师怎么说？ VLSI Research首席执行官G. Dan Hutcheson表示，IBM员工士气低落，从1990年代该公司在半导体领域的企图心越来越小就已经开始；那个时候，有一位IBM资深员工因为被炒鱿鱼，还把金鱼丢到某座晶圆厂排放的有毒废水中。他表示，2月份IBM考虑出售晶圆厂的消息，引发了员工的焦虑：“交易能越快完成，或者是相关讯息越透明 化，才是真正对他们有帮助的。” 另一位分析师Nathan Brookwood则表示，IBM想出售East Fishkill与Burlington晶圆厂，与过去出售硬盘机、笔记本电脑、x86服务器等硬件产品业务的理由类似。IBM过去需要自有晶圆厂生产大 型主机与中级计算机的客制化处理器，因此在1970年代开始芯片制造业务；现在则有大型晶圆代工厂能为一个大多是无晶圆厂芯片设计业者的产业，提供各种制程 技术。 Brookwood认为：“今年可能是他们出售晶圆厂的时机，而且买主最有可能是GlobalFoundries；可 能在年底之前，East Fishkill晶圆厂就会卖给GlobalFoundries。”他指出，IBM与GlobalFoundries等数家通用平台联盟(Common Platform Allianc)成员，共同研发了许多代制程技术，这其实也是为IBM加入其他许多半导体同行成为无晶圆厂业者铺路。 “现在产业界幸存的半导体公司，没有一家不是朝某种程度的无晶圆厂模式走；”VLSI Research的Hutcheson表示，这些日子以来：“IBM已经没有可以填满整个晶圆厂产能的需求。” IC Insights资深分析师Rob Lineback表示，IBM可能出售晶圆厂的这个话题已经传了10年以上：“我想这是一个实际行动的好时机；”他也认为GlobalFoundries 会是East Fishkill晶圆厂的可能买主，并指出IBM在2013年出售的芯片总价值约为20.3亿美元，较2012年的23.4亿美元衰退了13%；该公司 2013年财报显示，年度外部芯片销售额为14.63亿美元，该数字在2012年为15.72亿美元，在2006年为29.30亿美元。 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 编译：Judith Cheng 参考英文原文：IBM at the Crossroads: Employees Talk，by Rick Merritt

相关阅读：
• 晶圆代工业出现史上最长排队潮
• 无视出售芯片业务传言，IBM升级RF芯片制程技术
• IBM开放POWER8系统授权，欲做大数据界的ARMCMCesmc

{pagination} In the Shadow of Layoffs In this first of a three-part series we talk to analysts and current and former IBM employees about the company's future as a chipmaker. SAN JOSE, Calif. — IBM should sell its semiconductor plants and get out of the chip-making business, say a handful of analysts and current and former IBM employees, pointing to GlobalFoundries as the best potential buyer. IBM at the Crossroads 3-part series Part 1: Employees Talk Part 2: IBM Responds Part 3: How IBM Got to This Point A senior executive in charge of the IBM group told us chip operations remain strategic and -- at least for the moment -- intact. He would not, however, comment directly on reports in February that the company is exploring a sale of one or both of its fabs. While IBM's role as a chipmaker is debated inside and outside the company, all sides agree on one thing: For decades the company has been a leader in semiconductors, developing technologies that gave it an edge and pushed the industry forward. Despite its technical prowess, IBM should go fabless, some argue, claiming the company has under-invested in its two fabs for several years. The chip business hasn't fit IBM's corporate business model for years, they say. IBM's Power server business has served as one of the main motivations for making chips, but it hit a slump last year that the company has admitted it cannot reverse. The decline came on the heels of the loss to AMD of its high-volume, high-margin business making ASICs for videogame consoles. On a human level, employees in IBM's chip division say they are shell-shocked by multiple rounds of layoffs. They see a sale as a possible resolution after living under a cloud for years. "Layoffs came in waves and there are rumors they are still coming -- I lived through so many of them," says a former IBMer laid off in July 2013. "It's a tough environment where people are always nervous about what's coming next. It's not fun anymore." Next Page: Some decide to leave Some decide to leave A current employee recalls how one colleague used a forced unpaid week off in 2013 to work on his resumé and ultimately left for Qualcomm. "We've lost a lot of people to Qualcomm," says the IBM veteran who asked not to be named. A former employee reports some IBMers have gone to support Intel's growing foundry business; another said many former colleagues are now at AMD and Freescale. GlobalFoundries recently said it has hired on a temporary basis "200 experienced engineers and managers to support its current Fab 8 ramp" in upstate New York from May to December 2014. Another former employee laid off in July shared two common complaints: IBM has not spent the money to keep its fabs up to date; and it has done a poor job communicating its plans to staff. "They really are not transparent down to the trenches as they used to be," he told us. The Burlington fab "has been treated as a cash cow with minimal investments and maximal extraction." "They just haven't invested [in the fabs] to the point where now they have to sell them or exit the business," another former employee says. The bigger problem with morale is that IBM is out of step with the times, another former employee argues. "They still have a 1950s model of lifetime employment and fellowships where you give all the fruits of your brain to the corporation. I don't think today's guys will sign up for that -- they will take their best stuff and go out on their own," he says, noting one recent example. David Ferrucci, an artificial intelligence expert who led the Watson team, left the company in late 2013 to join hedge fund Bridgewater Associates where presumably he is developing custom AI algorithms. Next Page: Analysts' views Analysts' views Low morale goes back to the 1990s when IBM started scaling back its semiconductor ambitions, says G. Dan Hutcheson, chief executive of VLSI Research. At that time, one senior employee put goldfish in water detoxification tanks at one of the plants after he got a pink slip. Reports in February that IBM is exploring options for selling the fabs have turned up the heat on employee angst. "The faster they can get the transaction done or at least be more transparent about it will be really helpful to them," says Hutcheson. Selling fabs in East Fishkill, N.Y., and Burlington, Vt., would be similar to past sales of other commodity hardware businesses such as hard disk drives, notebooks, and x86 servers, says analyst Nathan Brookwood. IBM needed its own fabs to make custom processors for its mainframes and midrange computers when it got its start in chip making in the 1970s. Today big chip foundries support an increasingly wide range of processes for an industry of mainly fabless chip designers, says Brookwood. "This could be the year they sell the [fabs], and the most likely buyers is GlobalFoundries. I think we will see East Fishkill sold to GlobalFoundries, probably before the end of year." IBM co-developed multiple generations of process technology with GlobalFoundries and others as part of its Common Platform Alliance. The effort set the stage for IBM to join most of the rest of the semiconductor industry in being fabless, Brookwood told us. "There is no company left that hasn't gone fabless in one way or another," says Hutcheson of VLSI Research. These days "IBM doesn't have the demand to fill an entire fab." The possibility of IBM selling one or both its fabs has been "a topic of debate and news coverage for more than 10 years," says Rob Lineback, a senior analyst at market watcher IC Insights. "I think now is a good time to make that move," he says, noting GlobalFoundries as a likely partner for East Fishkill that had "representatives seen in Burlington looking at the manufacturing complex in recent months." IBM sold $2.03 billion worth of chips in 2013, compared to $2.34 billion in 2012, a 13% drop, according to IC Insights. IBM's 2013 annual report said it had external chip sales of $1.463 billion, down from $1.572 billion in 2012 and $2.930 billion in 2006, Lineback says.