松下与特斯拉合办电池厂，福兮祸兮？

日本大厂松下(Panasonic)最近公布了新一季(2014年4~6月)财报，其表现超出大多数分析师的预期；同时间该公司也宣布与美国电动车品牌供货商特斯拉（Tesla）合资，将在美国建立一座超大型电池工厂 Gigafactory。 Panasonic 与Tesla的合作消息对汽车产业界来说并不是新鲜事，因为Tesla首席执行官Elon Musk早就公开向该公司的电池供货商Panasonic “示爱”，希望Panasonic能与Tesla携手建立一座锂离子电池工厂。不过这两家公司宣布合作的消息中似乎漏了个重点：究竟Panasonic准 备掏出多少钱在这个超大电池厂的投资案中？ Tesla先前表示，该公司将在2020年投资高达50亿美元来建立电池工厂，目标是达到一年足以供应50万辆电动车的锂离子电池生产量。根据与Panasonic的合作协议，Tesla将负责所需土地、建筑以及基础公用建设的费用，Panasonic只需要为生产电池的机器设备买单；不过双方其他合作细节仍在讨论阶段，包括合资工厂的销售、营运与投资。 此外两家公司宣布合资的新闻稿也指出：“该Gigafactory将为Tesla的电动车以及固定式蓄电池市场，生产电池芯、模块与封装；期望到2020 年，Gigafactory一年能生产35GWh电池芯以及50GWh的电池组，而计划届时该厂将聘雇6,500名员工。” 而Tesla似乎认为Gigafactory 的电池产量还不足以供应市场需求，该公司在新闻稿中表示将持续向Panasonic在日本的工厂采购电池芯。现在产业界所有的目光焦点都转向 Panasonic的下一步行动──对这家日本公司来说，以短、中、长期的眼光来看，与Tesla合资的Gigafactory将会是个多大的包袱？ 有 部分日本电子产业界消息来源则质疑将赌注都下在Tesla身上是否明智？对日本人来说，与Tesla合作的吸引力似乎还远不如Toyota。更重要的是，Panasonic的管理高层才刚刚把公司营运拉回正轨，该公司打算持续执行严酷的成本削减策略──包括减少固定成本的支出。 很多Panasonic的老员工都对于公司过去大举投资大尺寸等离子显示器面板(PDP)的经历记忆犹新，该公司坚持PDP的价值并对抗液晶显示器(LCD) 多年，但甚至连消费者都说看不出两种显示技术存在多大的画质差异。电视曾是Panasonic的骄傲与喜悦，但也动摇了该公司的根本──在2011与 2012会计年度，Panasonic总计达到15兆日圆(144亿美元)的净亏损。 Panasonic的最新一季财报显示，该公司的AVC Network部门销售额成长1%，达到2,738亿日圆，主要是因为核心业务表现稳定；不过该公司也表示，消费性PDP与智能手机业务表现持续衰退， 也让公司仍面临亏损，但亏损程度已经由一年前的154亿日圆，大幅缩减为81亿日圆，主要是得益于企业重整策略。 对任何一位企业首席执行官来说，注意支出并坚持到底是最容易的部分；对Tesla之Gigafactory的投资，将考验Panasonic总裁津贺一宏 (Kazuhiro Tsuga)赌注未来、梦想伟大的意愿。在Panasonic高层对Gigafactory投资内部意见分歧的此时，该公司的下一步也将测试津贺是否信任自己的判断，以及在管理团队的统御能力。 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 编译：Judith Cheng 参考英文原文：Is Tesla's Gigafactory a Gigablunder for Panasonic?，by Junko Yoshida {pagination} Is Tesla's Gigafactory a Gigablunder for Panasonic? Junko Yoshida TOKYO — Panasonic outperformed the forecasts of most analysts and reported on July 31 a 28 percent increase in operating profit for the latest April-June quarter. The Japanese company, on the same day, announced that it has signed a deal with Tesla on a large-scale battery plant in the United States, known as the Gigafactory. The announcement comes as no surprise to the automotive industry, since Elon Musk had been publicly courting Panasonic -- which already supplies batteries to Tesla -- to join Tesla in building a lithium-ion battery factory. One glaring omission in a joint press release prepared by the two companies, however, is exactly how much Panasonic is prepared to shell out in its Gigafactory investment. Tesla previously said that it will invest up to $5 billion in the factory by 2020, with plans to churn out enough lithium-ion batteries each year to power 500,000 electric vehicles. Under the agreement, Tesla will pay for land, buildings and utilities. Panasonic will only have to foot the bill for the machinery needed to make the battery cells. Still under discussion are details on implementation, including sales, operations and investment, according to the press release. The joint press release also noted: The Gigafactory will produce cells, modules and packs for Tesla's electric vehicles and for the stationary storage market. Plans call for the Gigafactory to produce 35GWh of cells and 50GWh of packs per year by 2020. Tesla projects that the Gigafactory will employ about 6,500 people by 2020. Tesla appears to believe that the Gigafactory won’t be able to produce enough batteries to meet the projected demand for cells. Tesla, according to the press release, will continue to purchase battery cells produced in Panasonic's factories in Japan. All eyes are now on Panasonic, awaiting its next move. The question both inside and outside the Japanese company is this: how big an albatross might the Gigafactory become for Panasonic — in short, medium and long terms. Some Japanese electronics industry sources question the wisdom of going all in with Tesla. As sexy as this partnership might sound, Tesla, in Japanese eyes, is no Toyota. More important, Panasonic’s management team has just put the company back on track. Panasonic plans to continue with its rigorous cost-cutting measures — including a reduction in fixed costs. Fresh in the memory of many Panasonic veterans is the company’s huge investment in mammoth factories for large-screen Plasma Display Panels. Panasonic, who was betting against LCD, insisted for years on the merits of PDP, even when consumers were saying that they saw no discernible quality differences between the two rival flat panel technologies. Panasonic’s struggle with its TV business, once the company’s pride and joy, shook the company to its core. Between fiscal 2011 and 2012, Panasonic racked up group net losses totaling a 1.5 trillion yen ($14.4 billion). In Panasonic’s latest quarter, the company’s AVC Network sales increased by 1% to 273.8 billion yen from 270.6 billion yen a year ago, due mainly to stable sales in core businesses, Panasonic added, however, that sales of PDPs and smartphones for consumers decreased, as it winds down both businesses. In fact, Panasonic continues to suffer from losses in this segment. However, at 8.1 billion yen, numbers were significantly improved from a loss of 15.4 billion yen a year ago, according to the company. Again, Panasonic attributed the losses to the effects of “reforms in challenging businesses.” For any CEO, vigilance with spending and staying the course is the easy part. Panasonic’s investment in Tesla’s Gigafactory will test Panasonic President Kazuhiro Tsuga’s willingness to bet on the future and dream big. At a time when internal disagreements are speculated among Panasonic's senior executives as to Gigafactory investment, Panasonic's next move also tests how much Tsuga trusts his own judgment, as well as his ability to rein in his management team.