谷歌或苹果将把英特尔赶下处理器王座？

一位资深工程师表示，Google、Apple或一家明智的新创公司，都有可能把英特尔(Intel)从摇摇欲坠的全球最大微处理器供货商宝座上推下来。 以上是即将在近日举行之Hot Chips大会上发表一篇论文的微处理器设计领域老将Dave Ditzel，在接受笔者专访时针对微处理器市场所发表的看法；Ditzel曾任职升阳(Sun Microsystems)并主导开发Sparc处理器，后来创办了知名的全美达(Transmeta)、设计x86架构芯片。 再后来，Ditzel曾在英特尔待了短暂时间负责一款处理器设计，该设计案却被新首席执行官Brian Krzanich腰斩；因此Ditzel在处理器领域经验老道，也有一些比较悲观的看法。 Ditzel 认为，Google有可能因为与IBM在OpenPower联盟的合作，使得英特尔的x86处理器在服务器市场的地位受到冲击；而如果Google如果能 针对自家数据中心量身打造一款客制化Power处理器，就有机会节省大笔金钱并取得一定程度的每瓦性能进展。 据了解，Google最近一直在招募电路设计师以及其他职务类别的芯片工程师，该公司的数据中心服务器技术高层主管也是OpenPower联盟的主事者，并曾展示客制化的Power处理器主板设计。Google确实是勇于尝试各种事情也有大笔现金可运用，而Ditzel的看法也指出了Google有动机做某件事，可能使得一年销售上亿颗的英特尔Xeon处理器市场地位不保。 而若 Google真如Ditzel所言投入了自家处理器的开发，其他大型数据中心营运商如Amazon、Facebook等也可能群起效尤；这些营运商对全球服务器市场的贡献高达两成。 此外Ditzel表示，Apple可能在不久的将来，自行开发为MacBook Air量身打造的A系列处理器，一旦该公司开始在Mac OS平台产品使用自家处理器，该芯片有可能广泛应用到其他Mac系列笔记本电脑，甚至是台式机。这或许对英特尔来说不足以颠覆市场，但会代表着该公司 在x86处理器市场的另一次损失。 Ditzel还指出，新创公司有很多机会能在现今的微处理器市场闯出一番事业：“大多数主流处理器设计活动已经几乎停滞，大型公司做不出来，因为他们已经失去了开发新架构的能力。”他或许是想到了被腰斩的那个设计案… 而他认为，由于大多数软件缺乏平行化能力，多核心处理器设计已经后继无力；不过在新一代处理器方面，还是有几个值得尝试的机会，其一是设计出第一款3D堆栈 架构的处理器──目前Ditzel正在与专长电感耦合芯片对芯片通信技术的一家新创公司ThruChip Communications，进行这个题材的研发合作。 至于今年的Hot Chips 大会还会有什么热门议题？Ditzel的看法与分析师Kevin Krewell不谋而合，表示Nvidia一直守口如瓶的、代号Denver的研发项目会是大热门：“没人知道该项目的细节，这一次应该会是首度大公开。” Denver被认为是Nvidia的首款通用处理器架构，原本有人预期是x86架构，但据了解它可能是64位ARM核心处理器；不过在这个众家处理器供货商包括英特尔老对手AMD，纷纷加入ARM的此刻，Denver以长期眼光来看似乎也不具颠覆性。 PC 市场成长趋缓，英特尔的市场地位确是岌岌可危；而且该公司在高通(Qualcomm)称霸的手机处理器芯片市场一直没有突破性的进展。现 在，Google、甚至是任何一家还在台面下的新创公司，或是RISC-V架构处理器开发商，都有机会颠覆微处理器市场，且让我们拭目以待！ 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 编译：Judith Cheng 参考英文原文：Will Google or Apple Disrupt Intel?，by Rick Merritt {pagination} Will Google or Apple Disrupt Intel? Rick Merritt, SiliconValley Bureau Chief Google, Apple, or a smart startup could disrupt Intel, which increasingly looks awkwardly poised as the world's largest maker of microprocessors. That's the view of Dave Ditzel, a veteran microprocessor designer. I talked to him about the microprocessor landscape after an interview for his upcoming paper at Hot Chips. Ditzel led Sparc designs at the former Sun Microsystems before founding his own startup, Transmeta, that designed an x86-compatible chip. Most recently, he spent a little time at Intel on a microprocessor design that apparently got the axe from Brian Krzanich, Intel's new CEO. So he's been around the block and has something of an underdog's perspective. Google may undermine Intel's x86 in servers with its work with IBM on the OpenPower Consortium, Ditzel said, and he makes a good case. The search company could probably save a lot of money and maybe even gain some performance/watt advantages if it could come up with a custom Power design for its data centers. We know from seeing job reqs that Google has been hiring circuit designers and other kinds of chip engineers. Google's head of data center server technology leads the OpenPower group and has shown custom Power board designs. I'm skeptical because I know Google tries everything and has the cash to do it. Nevertheless, Ditzel helped me see it also has the motive to make something real here that could deprive Intel of many hundreds of thousands of Xeon sales a year. If Google gets something working, it might motivate Amazon, Facebook, and other big data center companies to follow. These folks represent 20% of the server business -- the hungry 20%. Apple could put one of its next-generation A-series SoCs in a MacBook Air in the not-too-distant future, Ditzel said. Once it got the SoC up and running on its full Mac OS, it could easily spread use of the chip to other Mac notebooks and eventually desktops. That's not a game changer for Intel, but it's another loss of x86 sockets and part of a scenario of death by a thousand cuts. Finally, Ditzel said there's ample opportunity for a startup to do something really kick butt in microprocessors these days. "Most of mainstream microprocessor design has slowed to a crawl. It's not happening at big companies, because they have lost the ability to design new architectures," he said, perhaps unconsciously thinking about his last project. Multicore designs are running out of gas, given the lack of parallelism in most software. Nevertheless, "there are several really interesting opportunities for new microprocessors." One path is in designing the first SoC from the ground up for 3D stacks, he said. No surprise there, given Ditzel is now working with ThruChip Communications, a startup with an inductive coupling technique for chip-to-chip communications. When asked about what will be hot at Hot Chips -- beyond his paper -- Ditzel agreed with analyst Kevin Krewell, who said in a Hot Chips preview that a paper about Nvidia's long-secret Project Denver will be hot. "No one knows the details yet, but it looks like this may be first big disclosure," Ditzel said. "It's been a long time coming." The project, believed to be Nvidia's first general-purpose CPU, was expected to be x86-based but now is reportedly a 64-bit ARM SoC. In this era when so many companies, including Intel's old rival AMD, are jumping on the ARM bandwagon for everything from mobile systems to servers, Denver may not be that disruptive in the long run. There's no doubt Intel is on shaky ground, given its core PC market has slowed to a crawl, and the company still has not made significant progress in hot mobile markets where Qualcomm is king. For now, I'm keeping my eyes on Google, some still stealthy startup, or maybe those RISC-V folks at Berkeley for the next big disruption in microprocessors.