分析师：赛灵思可能领先于Altera进入28纳米节点

据华尔街分析师，继在40纳米节点上落后于Altera之后，可编程逻辑器件厂商赛灵思有望取得明显成长，可能在28纳米节点再度从Altera手中夺回技术领先地位。 FBR Capital Markets的分析师Hans Mosesmann在上周二(3月15日)发布的报告中表示，赛灵思在周一召开的分析师会议上，关于重夺FPGA领域的领先地位发表了大胆声明。 2010年赛灵思是可编程逻辑器件市场中的领头羊，销售额约为23亿美元。Altera的2010年销售额约为19.5亿美元，在向40纳米进军的竞争中打败赛灵思，领先对手几个月推出了相关产品。这两家公司都表示，将在本季度推出各自的28纳米器件样品。 周二Mosesmann表示，他与FBR Capital Markets的其他分析师都对赛灵思在28纳米节点采取统一架构有深刻印象。赛灵思正在推出三类28纳米器件，首次采取统一的可升级架构，使客户能够比以前更容易把各产品系列转向28纳米。 Mosesmann指出，为了在28纳米节点重新从Altera手中夺回技术领先地位，赛灵思必须克服各方面的挑战，包括制造层面、利用其新的堆叠硅互连技术增强性能、在低端器件中集成模拟功能模块和执行层面。 “赛灵思试图只用两年的时间，就完成通常需要两或三个产品周期(六到八年)才能完成的任务，” Mosesmann写道，“在我们的书中，我们给赛灵思的“勇气”一项打了10分。 摩根大通的分析师Christopher Danely同意Mosesmann的看法，也认为赛灵思可能在28纳米节点赶超Altera。 “我们相信，赛灵思在这个节点将与Altera同步甚至更早推出产品。赛灵思现在正在生产其第二款28纳米器件样品，领先于Altera。此前与Altera同时推出各自的第一款28纳米产品样品，” Danely在赛灵思分析师会议之后发表报告作如此表示。 Mosesmann表示，赛灵思的中档28纳米器件系列Kintex有望成为赢家，因为其架构就是为这档产品优化的。据赛灵思，中档产品是该市场中增长最快的领域。 Mosesmann认为，在中高档市场，赛灵思的堆叠硅互连既是创新也是风险，因其需要采用新的制造工艺。 Mosesmann维持对赛灵思股票“表现优于大盘”的评级，以及40美元的目标股价。Danely维持对赛灵思股票“加码(overweight)”的评级，目标股价也是40美元。赛灵思股价周二收于31.37美元。 Gleacher & Co.的分析师Ian Ing表示，赛灵思在这次分析师会议上突出了这个事实：它拥有可用于其所有28纳米产品的设计软件，而Altera迄今只为其高端28纳米器件Statix-V提供了相应软件。较早地提供相关软件，可以使赛灵思在赢得市场份额方面比Altera更占优势，同时有利于用户从ASIC和ASSP转向FPGA。 Ing表示，Gleacher的分析师们对于赛灵思将在2012财年加快推出产品的计划感到意外。其财年将从本月末开始。 Ing还建议投资者忽略这两家公司在28纳米节点上工艺技术的差异，他认为关键在于执行。赛灵思正在把一种高性能、低功耗工艺用于其所有28纳米器件。而Altera正在把一种高性能工艺用于高端Statix-V器件，中低端产品则使用一种低功耗工艺。 Ing维持对赛灵思股票“买入”的评级，以及40美元的目标股价，但考虑到赛灵思积极推出产品所涉及的研发费用，他把2012年赛灵思每股盈余(EPS)预估从2.33美元调降到2.10美元。 ［转下一页：查看英文原文：Analysts: Xilinx could beat Altera to 28-nm］ {pagination} Dylan McGrath SAN FRANCISCO—Programmable logic vendor Xilinx Inc. is poised for significant growth and could regain technology leadership from rival Altera at the 28-nm node after ceding Altera the advantage at the 40-nm node, according Wall Street analysts. Hans Mosesmann, an analyst with FBR Capital Markets, wrote in a report circulated Tuesday (March 15) that Xilinx made a bold statement at its analyst meeting Monday about regaining leadership in FPGAs. Xilinx is the market leader in programmable logic, with sales of about $2.3 billion for calendar 2010. Altera, which had 2010 sales of about $1.95 billion, beat Xilinx to the punch at 40-nm, offering products several months before its rival. Both companies have said they would be sampling their first 28-nm devices this quarter. Last week, Mosesmann said Altera was poised to catch Xilinx in quarterly sales early next year. On Tuesday, Mosesmann said he and fellow FBR Capital Markets analysts were impressed with Xilinx' unified architecture approach at 28-nm. Xilinx is offering three classes of devices at 28-nm, moving for the first time to a unified, scalable architecture to enable customers to migrate 28-nm designs between the product families much more easily than has previously been possible. To regain technology leadership from Altera at 28-nm, Xilinx would have to overcome challenges in terms of manufacturing, pushing the envelope with its new stacked silicon interconnect technology, integrating analog functional blocks in low-end segments and execution, Mosesmann said. "Xilinx is attempting to do what normally would take two to three product cycles (six to eight years) in just two years," Mosesmann wrote. "Score a 10 for Xilinx in the chutzpah category in our book." Christopher Danely an analyst with JP Morgan, concurred with Mosesmann that Xilinx could catch Altera at 28-nm. "We believe Xilinx is at least in line or possibly even ahead of Altera in releasing products at this node as the company is now sampling its second 28-nm product, ahead of Altera, after sampling its first 28 nm product at the same time," Danely said in a report following the Xilinx analyst meeting. Mosesmann said Xilinx' mid-range 28-nm device family, Kintex, looks to be a winner, given that the architecture is optimized for that segment. According to Xilinx, the mid-range is the fastest growing segment of the market. At the high-end of the market, Xilinx' stacked silicon interconnect is both an innovation and a risk, given that it requires a new manufacturing process, Mosesmann said. Mosesmann maintains an "outperform" rating on Xilinx' stock and a share price target of $40. Danely maintains an "overweight" rating on Xilinx, also with a $40 price target. Xilinx' stock closed at $31.37 Tuesday. Ian Ing, an analyst with Gleacher & Co., said Xilinx highlighted at the analyst meeting the fact that it has design software available for all of its 28-nm product tiers, while Altera has only offered software for its high-end 28-nm Statix-V devices thus far. The earlier software availability could give Xilinx an advantage in gaining market share versus Altera and users moving to FPGAs from ASICs and ASSPs. Ing said Gleacher analysts were surprised to see Xilinx' accelerated tapeout schedule in its fiscal year 2012, which begins late this month. Ing also advised investors to ignore the differences in process technology between the two companies at 28-nm, saying the key was execution. Xilinx is using a high-performance, low-power process for all of its 28-nm devices, while Altera is using a high-performance process for high-end Statix-V devices and a low-power process for its mid- and low-tier products. Ing maintains a "buy" rating and $40 price target on Xilinx' stock, but he cut his firm's estimates on Xilinx' 2012 earnings per share to $2.10 from $2.33 because of the R&D expenses associated with Xilinx' aggressive tapeout schedule.