日本震后总体影响的五个预测

这次日本地震会产生什么总体影响？ 市场调研公司IC Insights Inc.总裁Bill McClean最近发表了一份报告，分析了日本局势及其对全球GDP、电子系统销售和全球半导体市场的影响。以下是其提出的五项预测： 1、GDP将下降 “2010年日本占全球GDP的7.5%。初步估计显示，地震和海啸将使2011年日本GDP下降1-3%。IC Insights公司认为， 地震对供应链的破坏仍可能导致全球GDP增长率降至3.4%，并导致今年全球GDP少增加2600亿美元，而我们当初的预测是增长3.9%。IC Insights公司目前预测全球GDP增长3.6%。” 2、电子系统将受到打击 “2010年电子系统销售额为12370亿美元，仅占全球GDP的2.2%。按照悲观的预测，即2011年全球GDP增长3.4%，考虑导致全球GDP减少2600亿美元的影响，乘以2.2%，得出电子系统销售额损失57亿美元。IC Insights目前预测2011年电子系统销售额是13480亿美元，从中减掉57亿美元，则今年销售额将是13420亿美元左右，比2010年增长8.5%，低于我们目前预计的9.0%。” 3、关于IC市场的预测未变 “根据‘悲观’预测(即全球GDP增长3.4%，电子系统销售额损失57亿美元)，从IC Insights公司当前对全球半导体市场的预估(3468亿美元)中减掉14亿美元，全球半导体市场将是3454亿美元，仍比2010年增长10%。” 4、供应链问题 “IC Insights公司认为，目前的(硅)晶圆库存水平和封装材料，将帮助避免出现严重短缺。另外，材料工厂(即裸晶圆和塑性树脂等)可以比IC工厂更快地恢复生产。IC Insights公司预测，未来六个月，许多电子系统生产商将试图购买额外的IC库存，尤其是预计下半年是销售旺季。” 5、需求不会被消灭 “在最后的分析中，由于日本地震和海啸的影响，许多与电子系统和半导体产业相关的领域的供应肯定将受到抑制。但是，从全球角度来看，电子系统和半导体需求预计只会因日本灾害而略有削减。另外，2011年电子系统与半导体需求因地震导致的任何损失，预计将会推迟或者延后到2012年，而不会被消灭。”

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参考原文：Five predictions following Japan quake,by Mark LaPedus {pagination} Five predictions following Japan quake Mark LaPedus What is the overall impact of the recent earthquake in Japan? In a report, Bill McClean, president of IC Insights Inc., provides his analysis of the situation in Japan and its effect on worldwide GDP, electronic system sales, and the worldwide semiconductor market. Here are five predications: 1. GDP to fall ''Japan represented 7.5 percent of worldwide GDP in 2010. Early estimates indicate that the earthquake and tsunami damage will cause Japan’s GDP to decline by 1-3 percent in 2011. IC Insights believes that the resulting supply chain disruptions from the earthquake could still cause worldwide GDP to drop to 3.4 percent, and still result in a $260 billion shortfall in worldwide GDP this year as compared to our original 3.9 percent forecast. IC Insights’ current worldwide GDP forecast (is) 3.6 percent.'' 2. Electronic systems to take hit ''Electronic system sales were $1,237 billion in 2010, which represented only 2.2 percent of worldwide GDP. Taking the pessimistic situation of a 3.4 percent worldwide GDP growth rate in 2011, and the associated $260 billion negative impact on worldwide GDP, and multiplying it by 2.2 percent yields an electronic systems sales loss of $5.7 billion. Subtracting $5.7 billion from IC Insights’ current 2011 electronic system sales forecast of $1,348 billion would put electronic system sales at about $1,342 billion for this year, an 8.5 percent increase over 2010 compared to our current forecast of 9.0 percent.'' 3. No change in IC forecast ''Using the ‘pessimistic’ scenario (i.e., 3.4 percent worldwide GDP and a loss of $5.7 billion in electronic system sales) and subtracting $1.4 billion from IC Insights’ current 2011 forecast of $346.8 billion for the worldwide semiconductor market, puts the worldwide semiconductor market at $345.4 billion, still a 10 percent increase over 2010.'' 4. Supply chain questions ''IC Insights believes that current levels of inventory of (silicon) wafers and packaging materials will help to avert serious shortages. Also, materials facilities (e.g., raw wafers, plastic resin, etc.) can ftentimes be brought back on-line much quicker than IC fabs. IC Insights expects that over the next six months, many electronic system producers will attempt to acquire extra IC inventory, especially in anticipation of the seasonally strong second half of the year.'' 5. Net impact? ''In the final analysis, there is no doubt that supply will be constrained in numerous areas relating to the electronic system and semiconductor industries due to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. However, on a worldwide basis, demand for electronic systems and semiconductors is expected to be only slightly lessened due to the disaster in Japan. Moreover, any lessening of system or semiconductor demand in 2011 due to the earthquake is forecast to be delayed and pushed into 2012, but not destroyed.’’