英特尔可能削减2011~2012年的资本支出

面对PC需求持续放缓，华尔街分析师指出，英特尔(Intel)很可能削减2011~2012年的资本支出。 Barclays Capital分析师C.J. Muse在一份报告中指出，有消息指称英特尔已在其22nm发展蓝图中，取消了位在爱尔兰Leixlip的Fab 24厂。目前还不清楚英特尔 是否会将已安装在Fab 24厂的22nm设备重新安装在以色列和亚利桑那州的晶圆厂中，Muse表示。 “我们当不清楚英特尔是否会重新分配其以色列或其它厂房的产能，或是削减资本支出，”Muse在报告中提到。他同时指出，他相信英特尔计划在九月的第二周 决定是否将这些设备送到别的厂房，或是继续闲置。 英特尔并未公开宣布将在Fab 24厂生产22nm芯片。该公司之前曾将将两座位于奥勒冈州的厂房，以及以色列的Fab 28和亚利桑纳州的Fab 12列为开发22nm芯片的 厂房。 今年一月，英特尔宣布投资5亿美元在Leixlip Fab 14厂的计划，这座厂房于2010年2月关闭。当时，英特尔并未说明将投资何种技术节点。 上周二，英特尔发言人证实，该公司目前还没有将Fab 24厂转换至22nm的计划。 然而，Muse在一封与《EE Times》往来的电子邮件中表示，他的理解是英特尔之前确实有计划在Fab 24厂建构22nm芯片，且设备预计在2012年到位。 “但现在，截至上周五为止，看来英特尔已经将这座厂房从22nm的发展蓝图中取消了，”Muse说。“目前尚不清楚英特尔将设备转往以色列、亚利桑那州或奥勒 冈州的厂房，或是他们目前还不需要这些产能，抑或是在当前环境中，他们仅是单纯地想采取较保守的资本支出。” 据Muse表示，过去几年月以来疲弱的PC销售，让许多人认为英特尔可能会削减其第三季销售目标。Muse指出，他和Barclays的分析师同事们对此一看法持保留态 度，主要原因是相对精实的库存和服务器端的强劲需求，可能让英特尔达到135亿和145亿美元的指导营收，以及60~65美分的设算每股盈余(pro forma earnings per share)。 “然而，提到英特尔的人事冻结以及推动资本支出的脚步时，在我们看来，英特尔完全不积极，”Muse说。 本文下一页：设备供货商的坏消息 {pagination} 设备供货商的坏消息 如果说对Fab 24厂所做的决策代表着削减资本支出，那么，对半导体设备供货商来说，这显然意味着渐进的负面影响，Muse说。但他仍预计，2011年英特尔将斥 资约60亿美元在前端生产设备，2012年则至少有50亿美元。 如果英特尔不重新将设备分配给其它厂房，那么，Muse的初步计算显示，此一决策将削减3亿到6亿美元左右的英特尔前端设备支出。 英特尔预计今年底量产22nm组件。该公司的22nm芯片将采用其三闸极(tri-gate) 3D晶体管技术。 稍早前英特尔曾表示，今年度包括前端和后端生产设备在内，资本支出可能达到90亿美元。 本周一，FBR Capital Market Research分析师Craig Berger指出，针对前六大PC ODM进行的调查显示，市场需求仍在恶化，目前预计第三季将比第二季再下降1% 。上个月对第三季所做的预测显示将成长1.5%，Berger表示。 “我们的访查对象表示，今年7~8月之间，欧洲、美国和中国的需求疲弱，且苹果(Apple) iPad仍大幅影响了消费性笔电的销售，”Berger说。“此外，我们也听 到包括惠普(HP)、Acer、戴尔(Dell)等业者都在清理库存。” 早先的一些预测显示，与第三季相比，今年第四季笔记本电脑基本上是持平的，“这比周期性波动更加糟糕且令人失望，”Berger说。 Berger指出，有些投资者担心，在疲弱的PC需求和恶化的宏观经济条件、可能放缓的服务器支出和其它负面因素下，英特尔第三季销售目标可能过于激进。但 Berger指出，最近分析师们对英特尔的预测也经常出错。 “许多人都预测英特尔的短缺会超过一年，但都没有成真，这证实了英特尔的营运能力和强大的产品蓝图，”Berger说。 Berger指出，FBR的分析师们认为，英特尔第三季的销售目标应介于136亿和141亿美元之间。Berger表示，FBR的‘市场表现’对英特尔目标股价评等为27美元。 本文授权转载自EETIMES，版权所有，谢绝转载！ 编译： Joy Teng 参考原文： Intel may cut capex, says analyst，by Dylan McGrath

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{pagination} Intel may cut capex, says analyst SAN FRANCISCO—Intel Corp. may cut back on capital equipment spending in 2011 and 2012 in the face of slackening PC demand, according to a Wall Street analyst. In a report circulated Tuesday (Aug. 30), C.J. Muse, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said sources indicate that Intel (Santa Clara, Calif.) has removed its Fab 24 in Leixlip, Ireland, from its 22-nm roadmap. It is unclear whether Intel will reallocate 22-nm equipment slated for Fab 24 to other fabs in Israel and Arizona, Muse said. "What is unclear to us is whether Intel will reallocate capacity to Israel or other facilities or whether this is a cut to capex," Muse wrote in the report. Muse said he believes that Intel is planning to decide the second week of September whether to send the equipment elsewhere or to keep it off line. Intel has not publicly said it would build 22-nm chips at Fab 24. The company has previously listed as 22-nm facilities its two development fabs in Oregon as well as Fab 28 in Israel and Fab 32 and Fab 12 in Arizona. In January, Intel announced plans to invest $500 million to re-commission its Fab 14 in Leixlip, which had been closed in February 2010. At the time, the company made no commitment to a specific technology node as part of the investment. A spokesperson for Intel confirmed Tuesday that the company has no plans currently to convert Fab 24 to a 22-nm facility. But, in an email exchange with EE Times, Muse said his understanding was that Intel was definitely planning to build 22-nm chips at Fab 24, with equipment deliveries expected in 2012. "Now, as of Friday, it appears that Intel has removed this fab from its 22-nm roadmap," Muse said. "What is unclear is whether they have decided to put equipment for the fab in Israel, Arizona or Oregon, or whether they don't think they need to capacity or just simply want to be conservative on capex in the current environment." According to Muse, weakening PC sales over the past months have led many to believe Intel could cut its third quarter sales target. Muse said he and fellow Barclays analysts were on the fence about this possibility, citing relatively lean inventory in the channel and strength in server demand, which could enable Intel to reach the low end of its guidance of revenue of between $13.5 billion and $14.5 billion and pro forma earnings per share of 60 to 65 cents. "But with talk of a hiring freeze at Intel and now some push to capex, these data points aren't exactly positive for Intel, in our view," Muse added.