各家半导体厂商对Q3的财报预测

由分析师Bill Jewell创立的顾问机构 Semiconductor Intelligence 指出，2011下半年电子产业景气有些许乐观迹象，但该机构仍将2011年芯片市场成长率预 测值，由原先的9%下修为4%。 Jewell表示，下修该预测值的主要原因，是 2011年第二季半导体市场表现衰弱，而这当然会拉低整年度市场成长率。虽然有不少分析师认为第二季的衰弱，是因 为西方国家的经济低迷与对再度出现景气萧条的恐惧；但Jewell将第二季的半导体市场衰退，归咎于311日本大地震对半导体供应链造成的影响。 “情况并没有那么糟；”Jewell指出，消费者心态可能让某些领域表现衰退，但整体消费性与商业电子产品支出仍然强劲。举例来说，美国消费者对休闲娱乐产 品与车辆的支出，在2011年第一季与第二季分别成长75%与15.3%，这部分支出有75%是电子类产品；此外美国企业对设备与软件的投资，在第一季与第二季也分别 有8.7%与7.9%的成长。 Jewell认为，芯片产业第二季面临的问题主要是日本；当季日本市场较第一季衰退了8.1%，而世界其它区域也受到影响，芯片市场表现呈现0.9%的季衰退。 而Jewell指出，近期有数家股票上市芯片公司的财报预测都颇为乐观，例如瑞萨(Renesas)预估2011年第三季芯片营收(以日圆计)将反弹成长23%，英特尔(Intel) 、超微(AMD)与高通(Qualcomm)也在财报中预测第三季营收可健康成长，幅度在7~11%，符合正常季节性水准。不过德州仪器(TI)与意法半导体(ST)的财报预测较 为悲观，表示第三季营收恐略为衰退。

各家半导体业者对2011年第三季营收预测
（来源：Semiconductor Intelligence）uwMesmc

“尽管欧美市场整体经济状况不佳，但半导体市场的主要驱动力仍相对健全，因此半导体产业应该会在2011下半年与2012年持续呈现缓慢成长；”Jewell总结指出，Semiconductor Intelligence对2012年全球芯片市场成长率的预测，维持在10%。 本文授权转载自EETIMES，版权所有，谢绝转载！ 编译：Judith Cheng 参考原文： Analyst sees upside in 2H11 chip market，by Peter Clarke

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{pagination} Analyst sees upside in 2H11 chip market LONDON – Semiconductor Intelligence LLC, a consultancy formed by analyst Bill Jewell, sees some positive signs for the electronics economy in the second-half of 2011, but has nonetheless reduced its global chip market growth forecast for 2011 to 4 percent from a previous forecast of 9 percent. The reduction is due to the weakness of the semiconductor market in 2Q11, which has knocked what was set to be an average year of course, Jewell said. However, whereas many analysts are attributing the 2Q decline to general economic malaise and fear of a double dip recession in the western hemisphere, Jewell sees the weak Q2 as being due to the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan which damaged much of the semiconductor supply chain. Jewell observed on his website: "the news is not all bad," before going on to point out that while consumers may be hurting and cutting back in some areas, consumer and business spending on electronics is still relatively strong. U.S. consumer spending on recreational goods and vehicles, which is 75 percent electronics-based, grew 15.3 percent in 1Q11 and 9.3 percent in 2Q11, Jewell observed. U.S. business investment in equipment and software grew 8.7 percent in Q1 and 7.9 percent in Q2, he said. The Q2 problem for the chip industry was clearly mainly a Japanese problem. The Japan Q2 market was down 8.1 percent from 1Q11 and while the rest of the world suffered it only showed a sequential decline of 0.9 percent. Taking heart from the forward-looking statements of a number of publicly-owned chip companies Jewell said that Renesas expects 3Q11 yen- denominated chip sales to bounce back 23 percent and Intel, AMD and Qualcomm all expect healthy 3Q11 growth with midpoints of their guidance ranging from 7 to 11 percent, which is a typical seasonal sales pattern. Texas Instruments and STMicroelectronics remain more bearish as they say they expect a slight decline to moderate growth in Q3, said Jewell. "The semiconductor industry should continue to grow at a moderate rate for the remainder of 2011 and in 2012. Despite concerns about the overall economies in the U.S. and Europe, major drivers of the semiconductor market remain fairly healthy," Jewell concluded. Semiconductor Intelligence is keeping its 2012 forecast for global chip market growth at 10 percent.