根据种种迹象显示，对于电子产业以及全球经济下的大部份厂商而言，2012年将会是充满艰辛与挑战的一年。欧洲的财务与债务问题正逐渐蔓延，情况丝毫未见改善。有关西班牙和法国借贷成本飙升至10年期新高记录的消息，更为意大利带来诸多问题。临危授命的意大利新任总理Mario Monti表示，意大利当前正面临紧急局面，甚至将可能影响欧盟的未来。
在电子产业中，大部份的主要OEM与组件供货商们均唱衰2012年前景。因此，有人因而断言投资人对于当前险峻的环境感到忧心，并开始为自己的钱寻找一个安全的避风港。但这种观点可能只有某部份是正确的。事实上，我最近在纽约参加的一场法说会上，投资人的关注焦点就大不相同。这些与会者的眼光放得更远、积极地讨论他们认为不久的将来可望主导经济的各种议题、平台、公司与策略等。
讨论的主题包括未来的技术平台、Facebook、Google、零售业的变化、云端运算，以及教育机构“是否充份地调整以满足未来学生的个人化需求？”与会者还讨论了一些技术问题，如Google Android操作系统的未来、“微软是否能够更成功地渗透于市场？”，以及“关于不同的生态系统，投资人应该了解什么？”
在一场有关Google与Facebook竞争态势的会议中，许多与会者剖析了两家公司的未来，并加入两大平台将面临的多项机会与挑战。他们指出，Facebook无法决定是否成为一个私有或公开平台的内在紧张将持续为其带来困扰，最后可能使其逐渐失去原有的酷炫风格。
此外，批评者质疑厂商们可会乐意出让其品牌的专有权给Facebook。举例来说，一家名为WidgeMaker的公司，它会愿意以www.facebook.com/widgetsmaker的网址出现在网际空间吗？或者他们将强烈反对这种方式，而要求在Facebook上以www.widgetsmaker.com/facebook的网址出现？
与会者们还投票表决未来五年内会把钱投资在哪一家公司？与会者的抉择大致上有四种：第一，仅Facebook；其次，仅Google；第三，同时投资Facebook与Google两家公司；最后，二家公司皆否。其结果相当令人意外。在场超过四十多人中，只有极少数的几个人在未来五年内只投资于其中任一家公司，而大约有半数的人都选择了同时投资两家公司。另一半的人则考虑并寻找其它新的投资标的。
根据一些与会者表示，Google面临的问题就是它的搜寻引擎与技术的进展冲突。Google公司的搜寻引擎是其透过广告赞助取得主要营收的来源──在Google首先推出搜寻引擎之际，当时的网际空间仍十分混乱，而该公司透过为用户挖掘信息在网际网络建立起某种秩序，并取得了可观的财富。然而，随着智能手机与平板电脑的应用程序以及像Facebook这样的社群媒体兴起──这些可没法再轻易地进行搜寻－－，因而让Google似乎踢到了铁板。现在，在网际网络的藩篱之外，存在着太多Google公司找不到也无法进行归纳与分类的资料。如同一位与会者所说的，如果应用程序凌驾网际网络之上，那么Google也就没戏唱了。但如果Google能力求转型，就不至于发生这种情景。
所有的这一切都让我不禁思考未来，特别是接下来的五年。以下是在这次会议中的一些其它问题。什么样的平台将在2016年以前主导技术市场？哪些公司将成为“时代精神”(Zeitgeist，例如当今的苹果公司)？Facebook和Google仍将主导市场吗？电信服务供货商仍然能够控制用户的宽频使用吗？接下来还会出现类似智能手机这种必备的什么新产品吗？对于企业IT客户以及设备与咨询服务供货商而言，什么才是最重要的？最重要的，在2011/2012年IPO的公司中，有哪些可证明是一家具有良好经营模式的好公司？而些公司却平凡且不起眼？
想想看就在五年前，iPhone在称霸智能手机市场前才公开亮相，平板电脑领域因iPad尚未诞生而未能进入主流市场，还有Android只不过是一个跟外星人有关的字词。因此，让我们共同预测接下来的五年吧！让我知道你认为五年后的电子产业与技术格局大概是怎么样的？我们可能会热烈讨论什么新产品呢？
编译：Susan Hong
本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载
参考英文原文：The Next Five Years，by Bolaji Ojo
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The Next Five Years
Bolaji Ojo
By all indications, 2012 will be a tough year for the electronics industry and most other players in the global economy. Rather than improving, the fiscal and debt troubles in Europe seem to be spreading. The news that borrowing costs for Spain and France have soared to 10-year highs adds to problems in Italy where newly-appointed premier Mario Monti has declared the nation is facing an emergency.
In the electronics industry, most of the leading OEMs and component suppliers have issued dire warnings about their outlooks for 2012. (See: Infineon: Cooling Off for 2012and Siemens Reports Growth but Expects Slower 2012.) One would safely assume investors are fretting and seeking safe havens for their money in this environment, but that view would be only partially correct. In fact, the focus of an investment conference I attended recently in New York couldn't be more different. Instead, the participants were looking farther out and discussing issues, platforms, companies, and strategies that they believe will dominate the economy in the near future.
The subjects discussed -- it was a private meeting and I can't disclose names or other details -- included the future of technology platforms (think Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL), Facebook , and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG)), retail metamorphosis, the cloud, and whether educational institutions would "adjust enough to meet the hyper personalized demands of prospective students or see an acceleration of routing around institutions." Participants also discussed technology issues such as the future of Google's Android operating system and whether Microsoft would be "able to penetrate more successfully," and "what investors should know about the various ecosystems."
At a session I attended on the competitive landscape involving Google and Facebook, many participants (and these, believe me, are either authorities on the field or investors) dissected the future of the two companies and weighed in on the numerous challenges as well as opportunities facing the two platforms. (Another session focused on Amazon versus Apple.) Facebook, they said, will continue to be troubled by the tension inherent in its inability to decide whether it wants to be a "private or public platform" and the possible eventual wearing off of its "cool" factor.
Also, critics wondered whether businesses will be happy yielding proprietary ownership of their brands to Facebook. In other words, will a company -- let's call it WidgetsMaker -- be happy being known in cyberspace as www.facebook.com/widgetsmaker, or will it buck this trend and demand to be known on Facebook as www.widgetsmaker.com/facebook?
Hold your horses if you are rooting for Google to win over Facebook. Participants in my session voted on which of the two companies they would put their money into five years from now. The quick poll asked participants to make one of four choices: one, Facebook only; second, Google only; third, both Facebook and Google; and lastly, neither. The results were stunning. Only a handful in a room of more than 40 people would put their funds in either company alone five years from now, while half the room would invest in both companies within the same timeframe. The other half is looking for and expecting something else, something new.
The problem Google faces, according to some participants, is that its search engine -- the main source of revenue at the company via advertising support -- is clashing with the march of technology. The Web was a chaotic place when Google made its debut, and the company has made a fortune out of bringing some order to the Internet by digging up information for users. However, with the advent of smartphone and tablet apps and social media outlets like Facebook -- which don't lend themselves as easily to search -- Google is hitting a brick wall. So much unsearchable data that the company cannot catalogue and categorize now resides outside the walls of the Internet. If apps win over the Internet, Google is "screwed," as one participant said. But that may not happen if Google transforms itself. If it fails to do this, the slide may not be that apparent for another five years.
All of this got me thinking about the future, and especially the next five years. Here are some additional questions from the conference. What platforms will dominate the technology market by 2016? Which companies will be the Zeitgeist (today's Apple)? Would Facebook and Google still be as dominant? Would telecom service providers still be able to control customers' use of broadband? What new products will emerge as must-have similar to smartphones? What would be most important to enterprise IT customers and the equipment and consulting services vendors? And, critically, which five IPOs of 2011/2012 will prove to be great companies with great business models, and which will reveal mediocrity?
Five years ago, the iPhone made its debut before powering on to dominate the smartphone market, the tablet PC segment had not gone mainstream because the iPad had not been born, and Android was just a word associated with aliens from another planet. So, let's collectively project another five years into the future. Let me know what you think the technology landscape would look like five years from now and which new products we might be talking about.
