美光与尔必达合并将颠覆目前DRAM市场

据IHS iSuppli公司的市场研究报告，美国美光与日本尔必达如果合并，可能导致DRAM产业格局发生剧烈变化，合并而成的新企业将在全球DRAM市场排名第二，可能挑战韩国三星电子的龙头地位。 最近几周关于美光正在谈判，准备投资或者收购尔必达的传言甚嚣尘上。尔必达连续五个季度亏损，负债沉重。双方都没有公开承认有此类磋商。 据IHS公司，如果合并，二者的合计晶圆月产能(WSPM)将达37.4万片。它将占全球DRAM产能的28%，仅次于目前排名第一的的韩国三星电子。目前三星的晶圆月产能是43.3万片，占全球产能的33%。 IHS公司表示，尔必达和美光的DRAM产能各自排名通常是第三和第四。DRAM版图重新划分之后，韩国海力士半导体的排名将从目前的第二降到第三，其晶圆月产能是30万片左右，占全球产能的23%。 IHS公司 DRAM与记忆体资深首席分析师Mike Howard表示，美光与尔必达合并将形成三星最强大的竞争对手。他说：“三星电子通常领先于最近它的对手10个百分点，但这次合并将把三星市场份额的领先优势削弱一半至5个百分点。” Howard表示，美光与尔必达合并或者采取其它联合形式，都将面临诸多挑战，尤其是尔必达的高额债务。他说，去年第三季度末尔必达的未偿债务为40亿美元。他补充道，由于工厂建造费用可能极其高昂而且经常需要债务融资，所以DRAM产业对于巨额负债并不陌生。尽管如此，美光绝对不愿意背上更多负债。 Howard指出，坚挺的日元汇率以及美光与台湾南亚科技之间的合作，也可能妨碍美光与尔必达合并。IHS公司表示，另外，美光首席执行官Steve Appleton在2月3日因飞机失事意外去世，可能导致事情复杂化，尤其是Apple¬ton提倡整合，而且可能是任何潜在交易的背后推手。 IHS公司认为，二者合并除了可以提高产能以外，还有其它一些好处。对于尔必达来说，可以接触美光所服务的高端客户领域。IHS公司指出，第三季度，尔必达的DRAM平均销售价格是每0.70美元/GB，而美光的平均销售价格是1.34美元。IHS公司认为，这种差异源于二者服务于不同的客户群。 IHS公司称，合并也可以使美光接触尔必达的移动DRAM买家。尔必达第三季度移动DRAM出货量份额为18.4%，而美光只有5.3%。目前移动DRAM约占总体DRAM市场的15%。 IHS公司认为，对于双方的客户来说，二者合并有利有弊。合并将导致市场中少一个供应商，可能使DRAM价格保持坚挺。但二者合并也可以平衡三星的庞大规模与影响力。 Howard表示，总的来看，合并会带来一个更加稳定的市场，这方面的好处可能盖过少一个供应商带来的弊端。 编译：Luffy Liu 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文：Micron-Elpida merger would redraw DRAM market, by Dylan McGrath

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{pagination} Micron-Elpida merger would redraw DRAM market Dylan McGrath A potential merger between Micron Technology Inc. and Japan's Elpida Memory Inc. would dramatically redraw the DRAM landscape, creating a new No. 2 player that could challenge South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.'s leadership in the space, according to market research firm IHS iSuppli. Speculation has been swirling in recent weeks that Micron is in negotiations to invest in or acquire Elpida, which has been plagued by five consecutive quarterly losses and is bogged down with debt. Neither company has publicly acknowledged any such discussions. According to IHS, a merged Micron and Elpida would have capacity for 374,000 DRAM wafer starts per month. The combined company would have a 28 percent share of worldwide DRAM manufacturing capacity, placing it just behind Samsung, which has capacity for 433,000 wafer starts per month, or 33 percent of global DRAM capacity. On their own, Elpida and Micron typically rank third and fourth in DRAM capacity, respectively, IHS said. The reconfigured DRAM terrain also would mean that South Korea's Hynix Semiconductor Inc. would fall to third place with 23 percent share of DRAM capacity, or about 300,000 DRAM starts per month, IHS said. Mike Howard, senior principal analyst for DRAM and memory at IHS, said that a combined Micron-Elpida would provide Samsung with its most powerful rival yet in DRAM. "Samsung is usually 10 percentage points ahead of its next competitor, but the merger would trim its formidable market share lead by half, to 5 percentage points," Howard said. Howard said any proposed merger or other tie-up arrangement between Micron and Elpida would face several challenges, not the least of which is Elpida's debt load. At the end of the third quarter last year, Elpida owed $4 billion in outstanding obligations, he said. While the DRAM industry is familiar with large amounts of debt because fabs can be extremely expensive to build and often require debt to finance, Micron is decidedly debt averse, he added. The strong Japanese yen and Micron's ongoing partnership with Taiwan's Nanya Technology Corp. could also be obstacles to a possible Micron-Elpida deal, Howard said. The death of former Micron Chairman and CEO Steve Appleton Feb. 3 could also complicate matters, since Appleton was a known advocate for consolidation and was likely a driver behind any possible deal, IHS said. But a merger between the two companies would also offer several benefits in addition to combined manufacturing capacity, IHS said. For Elpida, a deal would provide access to the premium customer segments that Micron serves. IHS noted that in the third quarter of 2011 Elpida's average selling price for DRAM was 70 cents per gigabyte, compared with $1.34 per gigabyte for Micron, a differential that IHS attributed to the firms serving different customer groups. A deal would also give Micron greater access to Elpida's mobile DRAM buyers, IHS said. Elpida shipped 18.4 percent of mobile bits in the third quarter, compared to only 5.3 percent for Micron, the firm said, adding that mobile DRAM now accounts for about 15 percent of the total DRAM market. For customers of both Micron and Elpida, a merger between the firms could be a double-edged sword, IHS said. A merger would mean one less DRAM supplier on the market, which could enable DRAM prices to firm, IHS said. But a merger could also provide ballast against the overwhelming size and influence of Samsung, IHS said. Overall, the benefits of a more stable market resulting from the merger probably would outweigh the drawbacks of having one less supplier, Howard said.