廉价iPad：你若敢卖，我便敢买

就在iPad 3预料将于3月初发表之前，有关搭载7.85吋屏幕的迷你版iPad早已在市场上传得沸沸扬扬了。其中还牵扯出了许多的消息──包括在富士康电子(Foxconn Electronics Inc.)不断地调高工资之际，苹果公司(Apple Inc.)计划大量生产低成本的平板装置── 8G 版iPad 2。但对于我们的读者来说，最实际的问题就是供应、需求以及上市时程。 让我们回顾以下一些新闻事件： 2011年9月：亚马逊(Amazon)发表Kindle Fire，起价199美元。 2012年2月14日：苹果公司据传正设计搭载较小尺寸屏幕的iPad。 2012年2月28日：苹果发出媒体邀请函，一般预料将发表iPad 3。 2012年3月1日：媒体报导较小尺寸的iPad将在第三季开始量产。 根据媒体报导，7.85吋iPad的价格预计大约在249美元到299美元之间。很显然地，苹果公司正试图从Amazon.com和Barnes＆Noble供应低成本平板电脑的市场分一杯羹。 根据IHS iSuppli公司统计，苹果已经在平板电脑领域占有60%的市占率。该公司在2011年第四季所遭遇到的最大竞争对手就是它自己──苹果旗下产品 iPhone 分食掉一部份的 iPad 销售量。 7.85 吋iPad上市可望带来什么样的需求？我认为较小尺寸的平板电脑将会是一款十分热卖的畅销商品。加上第三季又是加速假期销售业务的旺季，从 Amazon.com的Kindle Fire热卖就可以看到这是多有利润的大好时机。对于因为2011年上市时iPad价格过高而未出手的人来说，只要再等一年就只要花249 美元就能买到当然很值得。 对于这种情况会产生最大疑问的就是苹果公司自己。如果一如预期地，苹果在3月8日发表iPad 3，将会对于市场需求将会造成什么影响？如果按照苹果设定的模式，消费者们应该会马上一窝蜂地排队去买iPad 3。这些消费者大概都是没有iPad 2的族群吧？ 或者，他们是果粉？那么不管是什么价格或在任何地点，苹果迷们都会去买任何苹果商品。 假设苹果已经掌握了60%的平板电脑市场，那么该公司还有其它40%的市场机会。但这40%的族群都是拥有其它品牌平板电脑的人吗？还是完全没有任何平板电脑的人？ 我自己就是一个没买任何平板电脑的人，但我的心态是想等一款低价的iPad上市。通常，我会想要尽可能有最大尺寸屏幕的产品，但目前的iPad价格对我来说仍然太贵了。而且小尺寸的平板电脑也拥有一些优点，例如比较好携带。 有没有可能iPad 3尺寸变小又卖得比iPad 2便宜呢？如果真是这样的话，就完全不必考虑249美元的iPad了吧？ 此外，更令人不解的是，媒体报导苹果也预计推出349-399美元的8GB iPad 2 (有些媒体报导8G iPad 2的价格是299美元)，而16GB iPad2的价格也降到了449美元了。 无论如何，对于苹果供应链名单上的组件供货商来说，这些都是好消息。 苹果公司目前的市值已经比某些国家的GDP更高了。显然地，该公司现正大力推动量产。一旦组件经出售后，不管是苹果或任何一家EMS，供货商都会把它列入销售记录。要将产品退回给供货商并不容易，除非它有明显的缺陷。 对于不在苹果供应链名单上的组件供货商来说，这可能仍是一大福音。2011年的多起事件已经让供应链学到采用单一供应来源所冒的风险。苹果对于所使用的组件通常至少保持两家以上的供应来源。如果成本是苹果的考量因素之一，那么供货商们都应该致力于开发其它较低成本的同类型组件，才能取得进入苹果供应链的机会。 无疑地，这也将刺激到Amazon、B&N和三星等公司开始提供更低价或差异化的平板电脑。如果还要考虑任何负面影响的话，也就只是针对苹果公司的立场了。想想看如果 iPhone 真的威胁到iPad的销售，那么一家公司又能和自己对立竞争多久？我真的不知道。 我想我还是继续用自己的这支手机一阵子吧！但我很想问问那些苹果迷们的想法，你愿意买低价的 iPad 吗？ 我想我可能会。 编译：Susan Hong 本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文：Will You Buy a Cheaper iPad?，by Barbara Jorgensen, EBN Community Editor

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{pagination} Will You Buy a Cheaper iPad?， Barbara Jorgensen, EBN Community Editor Reports of a scaled-down iPad with a 7.85-inch screen have been circulating widely just before the anticipated release of the iPad 3. There are a lot of implications, including the idea that Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) will be churning out less expensive devices, despite the wage increases at Foxconn Electronics Inc. But for EBN's audience, the real questions are about supply, demand, and timing. Let's recap the events: September 2011: Amazon launches the Kindle Fire at $199. (See: Is Hardware's Loss Retail's Gain?) Feb. 14, 2012: Reports say Apple is designing iPads with smaller screens. (See: Behind Apple's Alleged Move to Small Screens.) Feb. 28, 2012: Apple sends out invitations to a company event, believed to be the iPad 3 release. March 1, 2012: Digitimes reports that volume production of the smaller iPad will begin by the third quarter. The anticipated price point of the 7.85-inch iPad is $249 to $299, Digitimes reports. Apple is clearly trying to take share away from the low-cost tablets offered by Amazon.con and Barnes & Noble. Apple already commands 60 percent of the tablet market, according to IHS iSuppli. Its biggest competitor in the fourth quarter of 2011 was itself -- iPhones ate into iPad sales, IHS iSuppli says. (See: Smartphone Surge Heralds End of Tablet Era?) What kind of demand would there be for a 7.85-inch iPad? I think that, left to its own devices (pun intended), the smaller tablet would be a huge seller. The third quarter is the ramp-up for holiday sales, and Amazon.com showed just how profitable good timing can be with the Kindle Fire. Anyone shying away from the high price of the iPad in 2011 could certainly justify waiting a year to spend $249. But the biggest problem with this scenario is Apple itself. If, as expected, it releases the iPad 3 next week, what will this do to demand? If consumers follow their typical pattern, they'll line up immediately for the iPad 3. These consumers presumably would be people who do not own an iPad 2. Or would they be? Apple "fanboys" will buy any Apple product at any time for any price. Assuming Apple already controls 60 percent of the tablet market, it still needs to reach the other 40 percent. Is this group made up of people who own other tablets? Or do they own no tablet at all? As a nonowner, my inclination is to wait for the cheaper iPad. Normally, I'd want the biggest screen possible, but the current iPad price is still too steep for me. There are advantages to a smaller tablet, including portability. I'd still have to drag it out at airports, along with my laptop. But that's another issue altogether. There is still a possibility, though unlikely, that the iPad 3 will be smaller and sell for less than the iPad 2. But if that were the case, why bother with the $249 iPad at all? And just to confuse matters further, Digitimes reports that Apple is also expected to release an 8GB iPad 2 for $349-$399, and that it has lowered the price of the 16GB iPad 2 to $449. This is all good news for the component suppliers on Apple's vendor list. (See: Who's on Apple's Supplier List?) Apple -- which now has a market cap bigger than the GDP of some nations -- is clearly ramping up production. Once a component is sold, whether to Apple or an EMS, suppliers book it as a sale. It is very difficult to return a product to a supplier, unless there is a clear defect. For component suppliers not on the list, this could still be a boon. The events of 2011 have taught the supply chain that single sourcing is a dangerous game. Apple should always have at least two sources for the components it uses. If cost is a factor, suppliers should be looking to develop comparable, lower-cost parts to get a foot in Apple's door. This will no doubt spur Amazon, B&N, and Samsung to provide even less expensive or differentiated tablets. If there is any downside to all of this, it's to Apple. How long can a company compete against itself? Is the iPhone the real threat to the iPad? I really don't know. I'll be holding on to my phone until my next upgrade comes along. But I'd like to ask those Apple fans out there what they think. Will you buy a cheaper iPad? I probably will.