油价飚升，电动车将迎来大降价拐点

Tesla Motors Inc首席技术官暨共同创办人JB Straubel表示，过去数十年来，电池技术一直以缓慢而稳定的脚步向前迈进，而今天，全球汽车产业正在面临全新的转折点──朝电动车(EV)方向转移，这将有助于减少今天我们对于石化燃料的依赖程度。 Straubel 在稍早前的DESIGN West展会上发表演说，他表示，批评者们经常提出电池技术的改良脚步无法与摩尔定律相提并论的说法，但事实上，电池技术在过去数十年来一直在缓慢地进步，平均每年可达到7%~8%的能量密度改进。 Straubel 指出，电池技术的改良，正是使得电动车可提供200英里或更长行驶距离的关键。未来，随着电池技术持续改善，电动车的可行驶距离也将提高，而且能提供更好的性能和降低成本。“在电池领域，成本仍然是最重大的挑战，”Straubel表示。 Tesla公司成立于2003年，旨在推动全球发展永续型运输工具，Straubel说。他进一步指出，今天的交通工具几乎全部仰赖石化燃料，在美国，有96%的交通运输设备采用石油。 “但在接下来几十年，我们不能再这样做了，”Straubel说。 Straubel 指出，人们在开车兜风时，可能都不会了解全球石油短缺问题已经迫在眉睫，不过，电动车却可以帮忙缓解此一问题。他表示，美国有一半的石油是用在每日20~50英里的通勤上。而Tesla和其它厂牌电动车的行驶距离都能满足这些通勤要求。当然，他也指出，以长途飞行来说，目前仍没有技术能取代石油。 当Tesla这家公司成立时，全球还没有任何一家汽车公司积极推动电动车方案。当时，许多自动来到我身边，我们一起开发和销售电动车，Straubel说。 而讽刺的是，当Tesla成立时，创办人经常被问到的问题是：若电动车真是个好主意，那为何没有其它公司感兴趣呢？不过，情势已经改变了，今天有许多汽车制造商都推出电动车，Tesla经常被问到的问题已经变成：在这么多的电动车之中，你们要如何胜出？ Straubel表示，Tesla欣见各大汽车制造商加入电动车开发行列。石化燃料日益短缺的事实，是要求所有汽车制造商开始提供电动车的最主要动力，他说。 “如果我们在广大的汽车市场中推出电动车，但却没有人跟进；如果整个产业一直驻足观望，那就代表电动车确实是难以实现的理想，”Straubel说。 Straubel指出，Tesla已经具备能为其它汽车制造商提供电动车零组件的能力，2011年，该公司便已经向丰田汽车(Toyota Motor Corp.)提供丰田Rav4电动版车款用的电动车动力传动系统，该车款预计今年稍晚推出。 本文下一页：新款Tesla电动车上路 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载

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{pagination} 在此同时，Straubel表示，Tesla也持续发展用于该公司电动车的相关技术。 Tesla预计今年稍晚推出新的 Model S 车款，该车款将提供多种系列选项，售价可望低于50,000美元。 Model S 车款将提供多种型号，包括最基础的车款在内，这些车款将搭载不同的电池组，分别可提供不同的行驶距离，Straubel说。 “有些人并不需要开300英里那么远，”Straubel说。“如果你距离公司只有50英里，你就不需要行驶距离那么长的车款。” Model S 还代表着Tesla首度尝试解决Straubel所说的“长途旅行问题”。虽然人们通常不会每天开300英里的车，但问题是，当需要长途旅行时，电动车将如何满足需求？ 为此，Model S提供了快速直接充电的特性，据Straubel表示，该车款能在30分钟内充饱一半的电。因此，需要长途驾驶的人可以在每150英里左右便充电30分钟。 Straubel透露，Tesla已经接获10,000多辆的Model S订单，预计2012年出货。 明年Tesla还计划推出首款纯电动SUV车款── Model X，Straubel说。 Straubel表示，Tesla已开始着手开发第三代车款。该公司预计新车款售价约在30,000美元左右。 Tesla的第一代Roadster电动车便是败在过高的价格上，但该公司一直努力开发技术并设法降低成本。Straubel表示，该公司预估，与传统汽车相比，电动车可让使用者每年节省2,000美元左右的燃料和维护成本。 “当人们买车时，他们通常不会想到之后的燃料费用，”Straubel说。 编译： Joy Teng 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文： World on cusp of EV tipping point, says Tesla CTO ，by Dylan McGrath

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• 产业发展航标：新能源汽车规划有望上半年出炉
• 油电混合车2012年台湾市场观察
• 盲目炒作，已致电动车市场供过于求eKIesmc

{pagination} World on cusp of EV tipping point, says Tesla CTO Dylan McGrath SAN JOSE, Calif.—Slow, steady improvement in battery technology over the past several decades as brought the world to the cusp of a tipping point that will lead to greater adoption of electric vehicles (EV) that could help curb civilization's reliance on fossil fuels, according to JB Straubel, chief technology and co-founder of Tesla Motors Inc. Delivering a keynote address at the DESIGN West event here Wednesday (March 28), Straubel said that while critics often point out that there is no equivalent to Moore's Law in terms of battery technology improvement, battery technology has slowly improved over many decades, resulting in an average of 7 to 8 percent per year improvement in energy density. Straubel said battery technology has improved to the point that EVs can offer a driving range of 200 miles or more under normal driving conditions on a full charge. Batteries will continue to improve to offer higher ranges, better performance and potentially lower costs, he said. "Cost is still the most important challenge for batteries," Straubel said. Tesla was founded in 2003 with a mission to help drive the world toward sustainable transportation, Straubel said. He said that transportation is currently driven almost entirely by fossil fuels. In the U.S., he said, 96 percent of all transportation is drive by petroleum. "We cannot keep doing that for decades to come," Straubel said. "Certainly not centuries." Straubel said future generations are likely to wonder why so much of the world's finite supply of petroleum was squandered on relatively short car rides, which he said could relatively easily be replaced with using electric vehicles. In the U.S., he said, about half of petroleum use comes from people who commute 20 to 50 miles per day. While such commuting is easily within the range of EVs from Tesla and others, replacing the petroleum used for longer trips and especially for things like airplane flights is still far beyond current technology's capabilities, Straubel said. When Tesla got started, there were no active EV programs at any major car companies, Straubel said. Many have since come around and are developing and marketing EVs. Straubel said he finds it ironic that when Tesla was launched, the founders were often asked why if EVs were such a good idea no one else was building them, but that, now that other automakers are offering EVs, Tesla is often asked if it can succeed when so many are working on EVs. Straubel said Tesla applauds the fact that major automakers have come around. Making a real dent in fossil fuel consumption requires that all automakers offer EVs, he said. "If we'd launched out to sea and no one followed, if the whole industry sort of stood on the shor and watched, that would have been a really difficult place," Straubel said. Straubel noted that Tesla has been putting the capability it has developed for making EV components to use for other automakers, including a 2011 deal with Toyota Motor Corp. to supply EV power train systems for use in electric versions of Toyota's Rav4, expected to be available later this year. New Tesla EVs on the way Meanwhile, Straubel said, Tesla has continued to refine and improve its technology for use in its own vehicles and has begun development of a vehicle that it envisions will cost substantially less than the more than $100,000 price tag on its original Roadster EV. Later this year, Tesla expects to bring to market its Model S, which features multiple configurations, including a base model priced at less than $50,000. The various configurations of the Model S, which was designed and built from the ground up, include different battery packs that offer different driving ranges, Straubel said. "Some people don't need a 300 mile range," said Straubel. "If you commute to work 50 miles, you don't need that much range." Model S also includes Tesla's first attempt to address what Straubel called the "road trip question." While people generally don't drive 300 miles per day, he said, there has always been the question of how an EV can offer a greater range for those occasional long trips. Model S includes a direct current fast-charge capability that can re-charge the vehicle to about half of its maxim range in 30 minutes, Straubel said. Thus, drivers could conceivably drive very long distances, stopping every 150 miles or so for 30 minutes to re-charge, he said. Straubel said Tesla has already taken more than 10,000 reservations for Model S vehicles and is already sold out for 2012. Next year, Tesla plans to introduce its first electric SUV, the Model X, Straubel said. Straubel said Tesla has begun development of what it's currently referring to as its third-generation vehicle. The company envisions that this vehicle could be priced in the $30,000 range, Straubel said. Tesla, which is often knocked for the price tag on its original Roadster, continues to refine its technology and drive down the cost of the batteries, Straubel said. He also said the company estimates that customers can save as much as $2,000 per year in fuel and maintenance costs compared to traditional gas-powered vehicles. He acknowledged that the savings per year presents an interesting business model challenge considering that EVs have a higher up front sticker price. "People aren't used to paying for fuel costs up front, when they buy the car," Straubel said.