Lumia卖不动？Nokia该为Windows Phone想想退路了

面对激烈的手机市场竞争，诺基亚公司(Nokia)目前在 Lumia 智能手机的出货量仍不足以为该公司带来任何进展或提升竞争力。而诺基亚公司CEO Stephen Elop在针对该公司第一季财报发布获利预警的声明中表示，诺基亚公司仍处于新策略的转型期。 我曾经在先前的一篇文章中提到，Nokia在手机市场中面对着重大发展阻碍，而且可能发现正处于追逐着市场利润持续提升的苹果(Apple) iPhone 与 Google Android 手机等竞争对手之后的颓势。 业界分析师们开始质疑诺基亚夺回市占率的能力，甚至怀疑其与微软公司(Microsoft Corp.)结盟的好处。这种结盟关系本来应该能够帮助诺基亚更有效地因应苹果和三星等公司的竞争，同时为Windows智能手机操作系统赋予新生命。 然而，市场研究机构IHS公司(HIS Inc.)分析师Ian Fogg在最近一份有关诺基亚的报告中指出，诺基亚公司的股东和其它利益相关者(员工、供货商和客户)必须大力督促管理这种可能让该公司重现生机的政策改变。 Fogg 对于诺基亚公司的顾虑，就好象几年前许多人关切摩托罗拉移动公司(Motorola Mobility)的情形一样。由于摩托罗拉移动公司无法中止持续亏损，导致最终被网络搜寻引擎Google公司收购。然而，诺基亚如果能够处置得当，或 许就能扭转目前的处境。以下段落摘自Fogg的分析： “诺基亚的智能手机策略再次滨临失败的边缘。大约在一年多以前， 诺基亚在2011年2月选择放弃 Symbian 操作系统，改采 Windows Phone 作为其主要的智能手机软件。而今，诺基亚的 Lumia 系列已经上市销售约四个月了，仍难以为该公司带来销售动力。在今年第一季中，每出货一支 Lumia 系列的智能手机，采用诺基亚逐步淘汰中的传统Symbian OS的智能手机就卖出了5支。” “诺基亚的智能手机营收数字不佳。诺基亚所有的智能手机毛利只有16%。对于诺基亚来说，问题就在于当手机出货量低再加上营收数字差同时出现时，几乎就没有什么转寰余地了。诺基亚所拥有策略空间十分有限，除非能尽快在Q2与Q3改善营收数字，否则这个仅存的策略空间也将会迅速消逝。” 诺基亚与 Windows Phone 结合的成效不佳，并不全然是诺基亚公司的错。在一个各家手机制造商努力寻求脱颖而出的智能手机市场中， Lumia手机算是一支拥有吸引力与差异化特色的产品设计。同时，诺基亚也以十分具有吸引力的价格准时让这款产品出货了。但诺基亚公司的问题是微软公司似 乎未能与其共同进步。在 Windows Phone 7推出一年半后，这一操作系统至今几乎不曾进行过什么升级或改变。事实上， Windows Phone 与 Android 或 iPhone 之间所存在的功能差距正日益加深，完全未能达到诺基亚需要缩小与竞争产品差距的目标。 “对于诺基亚与微软两家公司来说，眼前的第二季更是关键的时刻。诺基亚刚在美国推出了第一支 Windows Phone 旗舰手机 Lumia 900。 Lumia 900 只许成功。随着美国庞大的销售量带来一个巨大且富吸引力的消费市场，将刺激位于美国的网际网络公司打造 Windows Phone亟需的高品质应用程序。但如果 Lumia 900 在美国上市销售的移动失败，诺基亚将再次受拒于美国高阶手机市场之外，而 Windows Phone也需要彻底重新检讨。” “当诺基亚CEO Stephen Elop做出拥抱 Windows Phone 的大无畏决定时，他曾说过没有其它可行的替代方案(plan B)了。然而，从截至目前为止的成绩来看，IHS Screen Digest公司认为，现在正是诺基亚为当前 Windows Phone 的努力结果建立一项备用策略的时候了！” 编译：Susan Hong 本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文：：IHS: Nokia Windows Phone Strategy 'On Brink of Failing'，by Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief

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{pagination} IHS: Nokia Windows Phone Strategy 'On Brink of Failing' Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) is not shipping enough of its Lumia smartphone to make a dent in the market or pull itself up to be more competitive. CEO Stephen Elop has said as much in a statement pre-announcing the company's first quarter results. I also pointed out in a previous blog that the company faces major hurdles and may find itself chasing the tail of the opponents as Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhones and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) Android devices accelerate market gains. Nothing in the above is new. However, analysts are beginning to question Nokia's ability to regain market share and even doubt the strength of its alliance with Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT). That relationship was supposed to help Nokia better compete against Apple and Samsung while breathing new life into Windows smartphone operating system. I found a recent report on Nokia by Ian Fogg, an analyst with market research firm IHS Inc. both educative and alarming. I have reproduced it below. Nokia's shareholders and other stakeholders (employees, suppliers, and customers) need to forcefully prod management for the kind of shakeup that may revive the company's fortune. The concerns Fogg raised about Nokia are similar to the ones many identified in the case of Motorola Mobility Inc. (NYSE: MMI) years ago. The company failed to stem the losses and ended up being acquired by Internet search engine provider Google. Nokia may be able to turn itself around -- if it gets the correct treatment. The following paragraphs were excerpted from Fogg's analysis: Nokia stands on the brink of failing with its smartphone strategy, again. Just over a year ago, in February 2011, Nokia chose to switch from Symbian to Windows Phone as its primary smartphone software. Now, Nokia's Lumia range have been on sale for four months, but Nokia is struggling to achieve sales traction. For every Lumia smartphone shipped in Q1, Nokia shipped five smartphones running the legacy Symbian OS that Nokia is winding down. Nokia's smartphone revenues make for no better reading. Across all of Nokia's smartphones their gross margins were poor at just 16 percent. The problem for Nokia is that when poor phone shipment results combine with poor revenues at the same time there is little room to maneuver. Nokia has a little tactical room, but it will rapidly vanish unless the results improve in Q2 and Q3. Nokia's poor results with Windows Phone are not due to Nokia's failures. The Lumia devices have attractive and differentiated industrial design, in a smartphone market where every handset maker is struggling to stand out. Nokia shipped the launch devices on time and at attractive prices. Nokia's problem is that Microsoft appears to have stood still. A year and a half after Windows Phone 7's debut, it has changed little. In effect, the gap in features between Windows Phone and Android or the iPhone has widened and not shrunk as Nokia needed it to. This current second quarter is the critical time for Nokia and for Microsoft. The Lumia 900, Nokia's first Windows Phone flagship in the US has just gone on sale. The Lumia 900 has to succeed. With large US sales will come a large attractive market of consumers that will encourage the US-headquartered Internet companies to build the quality apps that Windows Phone so desperately needs. With US failure, Nokia will be locked out of the premium part of the US handset market, again, and Windows Phone will need a complete rethink. When [Nokia] CEO Stephen Elop made the brave move to embrace Windows Phone, he said there was no plan B. Given the results to date, IHS Screen Digest believes that now is the time for Nokia to create a back up strategy to the current Windows Phone endeavor.