走出水患阴霾，泰国努力制衡中国制造业

尽管泰国在去年发生毁灭性的大水患，先前的红衫军暴 动也带来政治动 乱，但这些事件都并未拖垮泰国经济或甚至让其它电子制造商对于这个亚洲国家抱持敬而远之的态度。事实上，随着经济持续成长以及IT支出攀升，对于寻求更多元化供应链并促进业务销售的制造商而言，泰国已经变得更具有吸引力了。 根据国际货币基金(IMF)统计，今年泰国的经济预估将成长5.5%。IDC的报告也指出泰国当地的IT支出将攀升至110亿美元，在东南亚国家联盟(ASEAN)中的排名仅次于印尼。泰国央行预计2013年的经济成长还将达到7.5%。 这是一个积极且快速复苏的故事，展现了泰国当地企业所具有不屈不挠的韧性，以及国际投资人与制造商期望维持泰国作为抗衡中国主导该区制造业的一种努力。对于泰国的企业与政府而言， 从去年水患中迅速复苏的行动正明白地告诉国外投资者：就算面对无法预期或排山倒海而来的天灾人祸，这个国家所具有的竞争位置也依然屹立不摇。 而对于几百家在泰国营运的外国企业而言，尤其是电子产业中的硬盘领域，这个国家仍然位居一个重要的采购、组装与制造中枢，仍能协助厂商保护其业务顺利运作，以免变得过度依赖中国。 经济的复苏需要政府和企业之间更多的合作与协调。去年令人震惊的大水患波及了接近湄南河(Chao Phraya River)附近的厂房专区。例如，为硬盘制造商提供零组件的公司受到大洪水的严重冲击。这场天灾一度中断了供应链下游的厂商，并造成全年的PC销售量大幅下滑。 就像这场洪水来势汹汹一样，在泰国银行(BOT)调度财政措施的协助下，造成2011年内存产业崩溃的情况也迅速地退去。IMF一度支持泰国央行的援助行动，但目前则担心财务激励方案如果未能正确管理，也可能适得其反。根据IOT表示，IMF已经观察到一些现象了： “泰国当局因应去年水患的政策已经推动了强劲的复苏...短期前景看好，但由于全球经济的不确定性以及防洪措施的进展情况，明显仍然存在着不利的风险。” “当前扩张财政和货币政策的立场是正确且恰当的。然而，随着经济复苏稳定并朝向中期强化路线发展时，泰国当局应放缓资金支持政策的脚步。目前所面临的主要挑战是在维持宏观经济稳定并促进成长，同时也应该加速重建。” IDC 所作的评估更具有建设性。IDC表示，“尽管目前全球经济前景不明，加上最近发生的水患危机使泰国的商业活动陷于停顿，”但泰国的IT支出仍强劲上扬。而这并不只是因为政府为其IT市场开出建设大型基础设施的支票而已，“消费者和企业等方面都在技术方面投入大笔金钱。” IDC亚太区副总裁Chris Morris说，泰国对于IT服务的需求主要受到“投资于制造设备的出口，以及快速成长的消费市场”所带动的。 对于跨国企业而言，这更是一大福音。泰国正迅速地复苏成为一个制造业的中心，这将有助于减轻供应链的压力，以及免于受到中国孤立成为单一供应来源的风险。在高科技设备方面，泰国也是一个成长中的市场。这完全是一个双赢的局面。 编译：Susan Hong 本文授权编译自EBN Online，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文：Thailand Rises From Floods，by Bolaji Ojo, Editor in Chief

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{pagination} Thailand Rises From Floods Bolaji Ojo Neither last year's devastating flooding nor the Red Shirt political turmoil that preceded it has kept Thailand's economy down or scared electronics manufacturers away from the Asian country. In fact, with the economy growing and IT spending surging, Thailand has become even more attractive for manufacturers seeking to diversify their supply chain and boost sales. This year, the Thai economy is forecast to grow a sizzling 5.5 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund. And IDC reports that IT spending there will rocket up to $11 billion, second behind only Indonesia among ASEAN nations. Thailand's Central Bank said economic growth in 2013 is projected to be an even stronger 7.5 percent. It's a positive recovery story that tells as much about the tenacity of Thailand's local enterprises as it does about the desire of international investors and manufacturers to keep developing the nation as a counterweight to China's domination of manufacturing in the region. For Thai businesses and the government, a quick recovery from last year's flooding demonstrates clearly to foreign investors that the country's competitive position can be maintained even in the face of overwhelming odds. And for the hundreds of foreign businesses operating in Thailand, especially the electronics industry's hard disk drive sector, the country remains a vital procurement, subassembly, and manufacturing hub that can help shield their operations from becoming too dependent on China. The economic recovery required special coordination between the government and businesses. Last year's frighteningly intense floods pointed to the delicate location of plants near the Chao Phraya River. For instance, companies that supply components to hard disk drive manufacturers were heavily impacted by the flooding. The disruption hurt companies downstream in the supply chain and drove PC sales down for the entire year. Like the floods, the memory of the 2011 disruptions is receding fast, helped by fiscal measures coordinated by the Bank of Thailand (BOT). The IMF has supported the central bank's actions but is now concerned that the fiscal stimuli could be counterproductive if not properly managed. According to the BOT, the IMF has made these observations: 1. The Thai authorities' policy response to last year's floods has propelled the strong recovery... The short-term outlook is favorable, but significant downside risks still remain due to uncertainties from the global economy and the progress of flood-prevention measures. 2. The current expansionary fiscal and monetary stances are appropriate. However, the authorities should unwind the supportive policy stance as the recovery takes hold and move to a medium-term consolidation path. The main challenge is to speed up reconstruction while maintaining macroeconomic stability and promoting inclusive growth. The IDC assessment is even more salutary. The research firm said IT spending is rising strongly in Thailand "despite the current gloomy global economy and the recent flood crisis that brought the nation's business activities to a standstill." It's not just the government that is writing big infrastructure checks for the IT market, though. "Consumers and enterprises alike are spending big money on technology." Chris Morris, associate vice president of IDC Asia/Pacific, said Thai demand for IT services is being driven "mainly by investment in facilities for manufacturing exports and a fast-growing consumer sector." This must be sweet music to multinational companies. Thailand is bouncing back as a manufacturing center and helping to relieve pressures on the supply chain and insulate it from the single-sourcing jeopardy posed by China. It is also a growing market for high-tech equipment. It's a win-win all the way.