中国不善自主创新，“二代创新”却很拿手

尽管不断强调“自主创新”，但中国观察家们仍然认为，“二代创新”(second generation innovation)，才是中国真正的竞争优势所在。所谓的“二代创新”，意指结合既有技术和产品，以及中国本身强大的制造能力，进而开创出的产品和应用市场。 同一时间，乔治亚理工学院(Georgia Tech)的国际事务教授 Dan Breznitz 也指出，“在中国，核心技术和新颖的产品创新，仍然是相当罕见且难以实现的。” Breznitz和其它专家在稍早前的一场公听会上就中国努力成为“创新社会”的议题进行了讨论，专家们指出，有关中国“最终将遭遇严重瓶颈”的看法是全然错误的。中国可能需要二十至三十年的时间来“克服创新障碍”，但这无碍于中国持续破坏美国经济。“中国已经来了，他们来到美国开设工厂…在美国，他们几乎无孔不入。” 一些分析师还预测，韩国经济最终“将会碰壁”。“在我上一次造访韩国时，这个国家仍然很强盛，”Breznitz说。尽管中国政府在推动创新时遭遇了难以置信的挫折，但我们不应该将中国在迈向创新过程中所遭遇的失败视为自己的机会。因为中国的省级和市级主管机关“正在尽一切努力推动当地的创新系统，有些时候，地方政府的做法还会与中央相抵触，”他表示。 理解中国推动创新方法的根本之道，就在于要先了解这个国家系统的“结构不确 定性”，Breznitz说。在中国，“你永远也不会全盘了解一切，你唯一能做的事，只有不停的创新，”他说。“这也形成了一种独特的情况──中国企业绝不会想去开发或许能拥有十年生命周期的产品，因为他们甚至不了解他们正在制造的产品究竟具有什么样的意义。因此，即使他们非常专长于制造，但他们能否长久经营一项产品，或是让这些产品成为发展稳定企业的基础，仍然有待观察。” Breznitz同时也是新出版的《中国创新与经济成长》(Chinese innovation and economic growth)一书的共同作者。该书指出“分裂的生产体系”(fragmentation of production)正是全球化的特色之一。“这是史上第一次，全球的商品生产和服务都面临着所有经济体必须高度相互依赖的分裂情况，”他说。“我们所仰赖的贸易体系已经不再是单纯地为了让美国人更加富有而存在，现在，我们甚至无法仅生产供自己使用的产品或服务。” Breznitz指出，中国的领导人都很了解，美国有许多新创太阳能面板业者，但截至目前，这些新创公司都不愿意在本土设厂投资，而中国则抓住了这个机会。这是很典型的市场失能情况。“尽管洁净技术一直是美国国家安全的关键，但美国的金融体系对此却迟迟没有任何建树。” 更糟的是，Breznitz警告道，美国“正面临着史上最大的军费支出，但当地企业们却不愿意在美国本土投资制造业”。 编译： Joy Teng 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文： Despite obstacles, experts say China continues to innovate ，by George Leopold

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{pagination} Despite obstacles, experts say China continues to innovate George Leopold WASHINGTON – Despite its emphasis on “indigenous innovation,” China’s real competitive edge remains in what China watchers call “second generation innovation” that combines existing technologies and products with growing manufacturing prowess. At the same time, experts such as Dan Breznitz, a professor of international affairs at Georgia Tech, told a congressional panel that “core technologies and novel product innovations are still rare and difficult to achieve in China.” Breznitz and other experts speaking at a hearing Thursday (May 10) on Chinese efforts to become an “Innovation Society” nevertheless warned that the perception that China eventually “will hit a wall” is misguided. China “can innovate. It may take them 20 or 30 years [to overcome barriers to innovation], but that doesn’t stop them from destroying us economically,” warned Daniel Slane, a member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. “China is coming, they are coming here to open up their factories here in the United States…so the hole just gets deeper.” Some analysts also predicted that South Korea’s economy would eventually hit a wall. “The last time I checked, South Korea was still going strong,” Breznitz added. “We should not rely on China failing” in its innovation drive despite the “unbelievable” failures of its central government. One reason is that China’s provincial and municipal governments “are doing everything in their power to make the system work, sometimes against the wishes of the central government,” he told the commission. Fundamental to understanding the way innovation works in China is its system of “structured uncertainty,” Breznitz said. “You never really know who is answering to whom, and yet you have constant innovation” in China, he argued. “It makes absolutely no sense for a Chinese company to think about producing a product that maybe will happen in ten years because they have no real sense of whether they will make it. Then, even if they ever make it, [there is uncertainty about] whether they will actually be allowed to retain the product or [whether] it will somehow reach a stable enterprise.” Breznitz, the co-author of a new book on Chinese innovation and economic growth, identifies the “fragmentation of production” as the defining characteristic of globalization. “The rise of global fragmented production of both goods and services has led, for the first time in history, to true economic international interdependency,” he told the U.S.-China panel. “It is no longer only that we are dependent on trade in order to continue to be wealthy; we now cannot even produce ‘our’ products and services alone.” For example, Chinese leaders understood that there were many U.S. solar panel startups “yet no one here is willing to [invest in] production facilities, and they grabbed it. It’s a classic market failure,” Breznitz said. “The financial system in the United States is not built any longer to do that” despite the fact that sectors like cleantech remain critical to U.S. national security. Making matters worse, Breznitz warned, U.S. companies “are sitting on the biggest war chest [of cash] in history and yet they don’t invest” in U.S. manufacturing.