日本若能放弃电视制造业务，倒也不负众望？

日本企业曾经把电视看作每个起居室中的关键要素，对于刺激其它一系列消费电子产品的需求增长非常重要。但现在电视业务已变成日本企业的负担，耗费其资源，并威胁其前途。 日本三大消费电子厂商索尼、Panasonic和夏普，都面临电视业务低迷的问题。没有一家公司拥有解决这种困境的灵丹妙药，而媒体和分析师最青睐的对策则非常直白而又令人吃惊： 从电视产业滚出去，而且要快。 日本日经商务周刊(Nikkei Business)周一(5月21日) 在其封面放了一个大胆的标题：“沙扬娜拉，电视。” “醒醒吧，日本企业，”该文警告道，“死抱着电视业务，同时亏损不断增加，最后将被淹死。该抛弃电视了。” 这种结论基于一种悲观的假设，许多产业专家都支持这种假设：平板电视厂商可能永远不能再度挤出利润。残酷的现实是，日本平板电视供应商没有什么选择余地，只能赔本销售面板，或者干脆全面停止销售面板。 但日经商务周刊的文章忽视了一个可能很重要的历史教训：美国企业在20世纪80年代终止电视生产业务，标志着美国品牌消费电子厂商开始停止在美国生产、开发和设计活动。Zenith变成了韩国的LG，RCA变成了中国的TCL，其它厂商则在千禧年美国工业的下滑中，成为历史。 但这可能不是太重要。显然，对于许多日本人来说，Panasonic、索尼和夏普三大平板电视厂商不再能通过生产电视来赚钱，令人沮丧。 但还有一个事实也令人苦恼，那就是电视业务不仅是个拖累，而且正在消耗这三大厂商的元气。 陷入困境的日本消费电子厂商(截止于2012年3月的财年) 在截至今年3月的财年，Panasonic净亏损7720亿日圆(约92.6亿美元)。索尼亦净亏损4570亿日圆(约合55.5亿美元)。夏普亏损3760亿日圆(约合45.7亿美元)。这三家公司都纷纷裁员，而且都宣布了大规模重组计划。 当然，日圆升值、日本东部大地震、泰国洪水和欧洲市场形势恶化等因素，也冲击了日本三大厂商的利润。但被视为罪魁祸首的还是平板电视业务。这三家厂商都大胆扩张电视业务，几乎到了盲目的程度，最终导致利润萎缩。 本文下一页：放弃电视就能脱困？未必！ 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载

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{pagination} 市场调研公司NPD DisplaySearch今年稍早指出，2011年全球电视出货量下降，这是该公司2004年开始追踪全球电视出货量以来的首次下降。出货量减少了0.3%至2.477亿台。 据该公司，尽管2011年液晶电视出货量增长7%至2.05亿台以上，但“与前几年两位数的增长率相比，增长放显放缓”。NPD DisplaySearch得出的结论是：“2011年等离子电视出货量减少近7%至1720万台，是迄今最大降幅，CRT出货量减少34%，液晶增长不足以抵消二者的下滑。” 过多库存导致出货下降，尤其是在2011年初美国和欧洲市场。NPD DisplaySearch的北美电视研究总监Paul Gagnon解释道，此外，在日本政府推出的节能家电补助计划“Eco-Points”结束后，日本市场的需求急剧下降。该计划在2009-2010年掀起换机热潮。 有人可能会猜测，2011年平板电视需求下滑实际上把日本电视巨头推下了悬崖。 但日本三大厂商结束电视业务的想法到底有多么坚定，仍然存在疑问。他们真的相信摆脱电视业务就一定能恢复盈利吗？ 也许事情没那么简单。 但是，显而易见的是，这三大厂商正在进入后电视时代，尽管他们的战略和投入明显不同。 对于Panasonic来说，“后电视”相当于“非电视”，意即利用其等离子技术生产数字标牌、数字黑板和户外显示器。Panasonic据称把2012年等离子电视出货量削减了一半至250万台，60%的等离子面板(50英寸以上)将面向非电视市场。在截至2013年3月的本财年，Panasonic将把总体平板电视(包括液晶在内)出货量从1752万台降至1550万台。目前Panasonic面临的较大问题是，利用什么产品来弥补电视产量减少导致的营业收入下降。 索尼新任首席执行官平井一夫不愿意说索尼正在逃离电视产业。但平井一夫有意未把电视列入三大核心业务：数字影像，游戏和移动。他称这三项业务是“One Sony”理念的新重点。 平井一夫已采取关键步骤来重组索尼的电视业务，例如，退出了与三星的液晶生产合资企业。此举很重要。由于电视销售黯淡，索尼从该合资企业购买的面板很少，索尼需要向三星支付数以亿计美元的费用和罚金。 但是，索尼将继续在电视业务上面亏损，该公司预计到明年3月将再度亏损800亿日圆(但是，据索尼所言，这与今年电视业务亏损1480亿日圆相比，是一个很大的改善。) 夏普采取的行动可能最剧烈，允许台湾鸿海精密持有9.9%的夏普股权，鸿海创始人郭台铭把自己的资金投入到夏普的Sakai工厂，获得了该工厂的46.5%股权。虽然许多人猜测这宗交易是鸿海收购这家有百年历史的日本企业的第一步，但夏普认为郭台铭对Sakai工厂的投资非常关键。Sakai工厂于2009年投入运行，能够处理超大尺寸的玻璃基板，被视为是液晶面板生产方面的一个重要里程碑。但是，问题是其产能利用率一直只有50%，令人非常失望。 金融分析师认为，鸿海有很强的实力，可能会生产iTV，那样将抢了韩国同业的生意。郭台铭显然有雄心，但结果仍然不确定。 夏普与其它两家日本电子巨头最后一点不同是，夏普现在更想成为关键的设备供应商，而不是全面的电视供应商。 如果日本企业未来只能放弃电视制造业务，几个有意思的问题浮现脑海：索尼是否会成为下一个RCA？Panasonic成为下一个Philco，夏普是21世纪的Zenith？ 编译：Luffy Liu 本文授权编译自EE Times，版权所有，谢绝转载 参考英文原文：Will Japan Inc. say sayonara to TV manufacturing? By Junko Yoshida

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{pagination} Will Japan Inc. say sayonara to TV manufacturing? Junko Yoshida TOKYO – The TV set – once regarded by Japan Inc. as the focal point of every living room, essential to fuel growing demand for a host of other consumer devices – has turned on its parents, draining their resources and threatening their future. Japan’s Big Three consumer electronics companies -- Sony, Panasonic and Sharp -- are suffering from TV fatigue. While no company seems to have a silver bullet to fix this gloomy situation, the strategy most touted by the media and among analysts here is both blunt and startling: Get the hell out of the TV business — and fast. Nikkei Business, the Japanese business publication, put a daring headline on the cover of its latest issue on Monday (May 21): "Sayonara, TV." “Wake up, Japan, Inc," the story warns. "By clinging to the TV business, while accumulating losses, you’re treading water on the way to drowning. It’s time to abandon TV.” That assessment is based on a pessimistic assumption shared by an apparent plurality of industry experts: flat TV manufacturers may never again be able to squeeze out profits. The hard reality is that Japan’s flat TV suppliers have little choice but to sell their panels at a loss, or forsake selling them at all. The Nikkei Business story, however, overlooks a possibly significant historical lesson: Ending TV manufacturing in the 1980’s marked the beginning of the end of production, development and engineering activities for U.S.-branded CE companies in the United States. Zenith became LG of Korea, RCA became TCL in China, and the rest fits into the bleak pre-millenial history of American industrial decline. But all that might not matter so much. Clearly, it’s upsetting to many in Japan that Panasonic, Sony and Sharp – the three biggest flat TV manufacturers here – are no longer making money on TV manufacture. But also upsetting is the fact that the TV business isn’t just a drag. It’s sucking the life out of the big three. Ailing Japanese CE manufacturers (fiscal year ending March, 2012) In the fiscal year ending in March this year, Panasonic recorded a whopping net loss of 772 billion yen (about $9.26 billion). Sony also reported to stockholders a net loss of 457 billion yen ($5.55 billion). Sharp lost 376 billion yen ($4.57 billion) during the same period. Heads rolled at all three companies, while each of the big three announced major restructuring plans. Of course, the stronger yen, the impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake, floods in Thailand and the deterioration of European market conditions also hammered the big three’s bottom line. But tabbed as the main culprit is the flat TV business – wherein all three, almost blindly, pursued bold expansion plans that ended up shrinking profits. As NPD DisplaySearch pointed out earlier this year, worldwide TV shipments in 2011 fell for the first time since the market research firm began tracking global TV shipments in 2004. They slipped 0.3% to 247.7 million units. Although LCD TV shipments increased by 7% to over 205 million units in 2011, this marked “a substantial slowdown from the double-digit growth in previous years,” according to the company. “With plasma TV shipments declining almost 7% in 2011 to 17.2 million units, the largest decline yet, and CRT shipments falling 34%, LCD growth was not enough to offset these declines,” NPD DisplaySearch concluded. Excessive inventory caused the reduced shipments -- particularly in early 2011 for the U.S. and European markets. Further, the Japanese market saw a sharp drop in demand following the end of the government-sponsored ‘Eco-Points’ program that previously caused a surge in replacement activities during 2009 -2010, explained Paul Gagnon, NPD DisplaySearch Director of North America TV Research. One could surmise that slipping demand for flat TVs in 2011 virtually pushed the Japanese TV giants off the cliff. But questions remain as to how seriously each of the big three is committed to folding its legacy TV business. Do they really believe that getting out of the TV business is a surefire answer to restoring profitability? Maybe business isn’t that simple. However, clearly the big three are edging a post-TV era, although their strategies and their depth of commitment vary distinctly. For Panasonic, “post-TV” equals to “non-TV,” meaning using its plasma technology for digital signage, digital blackboards and outdoor displays. Panasonic is reportedly cutting plasma TV shipments by half to 2.5 million units in 2012, while 60 percent of plasma screens – bigger than 50-inch – will be shifted to the non-TV market. Panasonic will reduce its overall flat TV shipments (including LCDs) from 17.52 million to 15.5 million units in the current fiscal year ending March, 2013. The bigger question for Panasonic now is with what other products can possibly make up the reduced revenue expected from the TV reduction. New Sony CEO Kazuo Hirai would not say that Sony is fleeing the TV business. But Hirai deliberately left TV out of the three “core businesses” -- digital imaging, games, and mobile -- he touted as the new focus for “One Sony.” Hirai has already taken key steps to restructure Sony’s TV operations, pulling out, for example, of an LCD manufacturing joint venture with Samsung. This move was essential. Sony was paying Samsung hundreds of millions of dollars in fees and penalties because poor TV sales meant it was buying too few panels from the shared business. Nonetheless, Sony’s losing streak in the TV business will continue as the company expects to lose another 80 billion yen by next March.(However, this is a big improvement, according to Sony, over this year’s 148 billion-yen deficit in the TV business.) Of the big three, Sharp perhaps took the most drastic steps, by allowing Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., Ltd. (trading as Foxconn) to take a 9.9 percent stake in Sharp, with the Taiwanese firm's billionaire founder Terry Gou putting his own money into Sharp’s Sakai fab – gaining a 46.5 percent share of it. While speculation abounds that the deal is the first step for the Taiwan EMS giant to take over the 100-year old Japanese company, Sharp sees Gou’s investment in the Sakai fab as critical. The Sakai fab – opened in 2009, capable of handling super large glass substrates – is considered an important milestone in LCD panel production. However, the problem is that its run-rate has consistently remained at a disappointing 50 percent. Financial analysts see the Taiwan firm in a strong position to push for a deal to manufacture the Apple TV, potentially taking the business from Korean rivals. Gou’s ambition is clear but the outcome remains uncertain. The final factor setting Sharp apart from the other two Japanese giants, though, is that Sharp is now more committed to becoming a key device supplier, rather than a full-fledged TV supplier. If the abandonment of TV manufacture is the future in Japan, a few intriguing questions come to mind: Is Sony the next RCA? Is Panasonic the next Philco, and Sharp the Zenith of the 21st century?